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Jed Shugerman Profile picture
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4 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I'm seeing that Fox News just called Arizona for Biden.

Big, if right.
Biden now has a clear path to 270 without waiting for Pennsylvania.
This is the map with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but not Pennsylvania or ME2 or NE2:

Biden 279 (a win)
Trump 249
(leaving PA undecided).
I am getting a ton of questions about why Michigan and Wisconsin look red right now.
Those counts right now are part of the infamous "red mirage" we've been talking about since August, because we knew they wouldn't count any Dem-dominated mail/absentee votes.
Sorry, I posted the wrong map.
Biden gets to 270 with:
Arizona
Wisconsin (538 averaging about Biden +10)
Michigan (538 averaging about Biden +9)
NE2 or ME2
If Biden wins Arizona and Georgia, then he only needs ONE of MI, WI, PA, or NC.

Biden still has multiple paths to 270.
Trump almost has to run the table.
Map:

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More from @jedshug

Jed Shugerman Profile picture
30 Oct
The 8th Cir ruled 2-1 last night that Minnesota must set aside any ballots postmarked on time but arriving after election day.

One of the 2 is viciously anti-gay Trump appointee Leonard Grasz, whose ABA panel unanimously declared "not qualified."
americanbar.org/advocacy/gover…
The majority claims to rely on "state legislatures" as the Constitution's rule, but invents a reason to ignore MN legislation delegating power to MN Sec of State to adopt "alternatives" in case of an order like the state court order here.
Here's the majority, then the dissent:
Here's the dissent.
Folks, this decision is a joke. This 2-1 majority purports to defer to state legislatures, but ignores state legislation and the state legislature, as well as a state court.
This "federalism" is really just federal judges' partisan judicial activism.
Read 4 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
27 Oct
In case you missed it, Gorsuch:
* Celebrated legislative supremacy as a Founding principle
* Praised legislators over judges for their fact-finding, judgment, & consensus
* Criticized judges who "sweep in" to address problems

Gorsuch is going to love the next Congress.
Who am I kidding. Gorsuch just likes this Republican legislature restricting voting access.

Phony originalism. Just reading a single clause how he likes. Not a single historical source.

Text of DNC v. Wisconsin State Legislature here. Full of whoppers.
drive.google.com/file/d/1tcsRiv…
Kagan hits Kavanaugh hard in this footnote, after Kavanaugh puts the Trump Party Line on mailed ballots into a Supreme Court opinion. You can't make this stuff up.

This is an already-packed court, folks.
Read 4 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
26 Oct
The Court question should be disentangled into at least 2 questions:
1) What is the right size for a Supreme Court?
(Is it 9? No.)
2) What is the right method for judicial selection?
(The current model? Hell no.)

If we are going to change one, change both in a balanced way.
I have concerns about the @danepps @GaneshSitaraman 5/5/5 proposal, because I think the existing conservative Justices will play hardball harder.
But it moves the debate forward by thinking creatively about both questions, and I haven’t seen anything better that addresses both.
For what it’s worth, I suggest:
1) President nominate 1 Justice every 2 years (2 per 4 yr term)...
Let size increase. No term limits.

2) But with a statutory merit model of bipartisan House committee (perhaps with input of governors, the bar...) creating a short list/slate.
Read 5 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
22 Oct
The progressive knee-jerk rejection of originalism over the past 40 years & in a fever pitch in 2020 is one of the sloppiest own-goals I’ve seen in law.

The left doesn’t have to adopt it. But to suggest it’s in bad faith & ignorant is, among many things, unfair & unwise.
Hear me out right here on why the left should adopt, appropriate, and fix originalism.
Better yet, hear Amy Coney Barrett herself show you how to find an originalist right to privacy in the Bill of Rights! She doesn’t even know it, but she’s right:
3/ As a progressive small-d democrat, I think the best way to read law is how the public understood what they ratified (&how the people’s legislators understood what they enacted & its broader purposes), more than how judges later interpreted it. Judges have usually been worse...
Read 10 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
20 Oct
The GOP's electoral college advantage (gap between national polling averge & the tipping-point-state average) is ~ 4%:

On @FiveThirtyEight, national avg is Biden +10.3%
PA, the tipping-point-270 state is +6.4%

That means Dems need to win by at least 4% to squeak past 270.
We won't know final gap for a while, but this is a bigger gap than 2016, when Clinton won nationally 2.1%, but lost tipping-point states by > 1%.

One way to fix this gap by Congressional majority vote (and referenda):
Statehood for DC, Puerto Rico & North/South California
2/
3/ I meant " < 1%"

Anyway, keep a Federal District w/ 3 electors for the popular vote winner. (h/t @imillhiser)
That's 11 more electors.
The winner needs a majority of the new 549 = 275 (odd numbers are good)...
Read 4 tweets
Jed Shugerman Profile picture
19 Oct
On @realTrumpcast w/ @page88, I said let's expand the Senate before the Court. Add at least 3 states:
1) DC
2) Puerto Rico
3) N & S California

Friends ask: "Can you really do that? By majority vote?"
Answer: The Founders did it!
KY, TN, etc...
Thread
slate.com/podcasts/trump…
2) This is the first map of the United States, 1789-90.
Note Virginia, Massachusetts, Georgia, Connecticut "Western Reserve."

Those were formally giant states. Over the next few decades, Congress & their state legislatures split them up under Art IV, Sec 3 by majority vote.
3)
 In 1792, Congress added Kentucky from the western half of Virginia.
VA's legislature had already voted to release the land in the Articles of Confederation era, but Congress had not yet acted. Thus, the new Congress formally added KY as a new state out of an old one.
Read 5 tweets

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