You could debate the order. I think WI is actually the most certain since I don't see many ways for Trump to gain votes there. The same probably holds for NV although *in theory* it's possible late-arriving mail votes could be red if R's waited longer to send in their ballots.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1323942313924677632
AZ is the only one of the four that's been *called* by anyone, including the AP, which is usually pretty cautious, but some AZ-focused data folks think that was too aggressive.
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden.
If I spent more time on MI I could give y'all a better answer but my prior for now is that although Biden *could* lose it, he could also wind up winning it by several points.
If one of those four falls though, though, Biden is probably at least a toss-up in GA, and probably also PA, plus some outside chances in NC.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323944064190947330?s=20
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