You could debate the order. I think WI is actually the most certain since I don't see many ways for Trump to gain votes there. The same probably holds for NV although *in theory* it's possible late-arriving mail votes could be red if R's waited longer to send in their ballots.
AZ is the only one of the four that's been *called* by anyone, including the AP, which is usually pretty cautious, but some AZ-focused data folks think that was too aggressive.
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden.
If I spent more time on MI I could give y'all a better answer but my prior for now is that although Biden *could* lose it, he could also wind up winning it by several points.
If one of those four falls though, though, Biden is probably at least a toss-up in GA, and probably also PA, plus some outside chances in NC.
One other thing—and being in a pandemic where there's less casual social interaction probably makes this worse—is that I've never had less idea what people outside the politico-journo bubble are thinking. Do they think it's anybody's race? Would a call for Biden be surprising?
Replies here suggest the average person (not my followers, but the friends/associates of my followers) thinks it's a toss-up. Makes sense, especially since the media has been exceptionally careful/pious about not wanting to get ahead of the story.
That does imply, however, that there could be a strong *reaction* if/when a call gets made. Not necessarily a negative reaction. Maybe there's a lot of celebrating in blue/liberal cities, for instance. But hard to know what to expect.
Although there do seem to be about 12,000 votes in other/unspecified counties in this tally. If we assume the unspecified counties are slightly redder/rural than the state on average and voted for Trump by +10 in 2016, then that would make the average more like 11 points bluer.
A few more counties here, although not enough to get up to 61,000 votes. Assuming unspecified counties went Trump +10 in 2016, the outstanding vote is in counties that are D +9 relative to the state.
I believe it's the city of Green Bay, specifically, that's unreported. I think both election day vote *and* absentees in Green Bay are uncounted, and that the rest of the country is in. Green Bay went narrowly to Clinton in 2016.
So I don't think there's much upside for Trump in Brown County. If it's *all* Green Bay, those ballots should be slightly blue. If it's only Green Bay absentees, they should be quite blue. (I think it's all of Green Bay, not just the absentees.)
The reason I'm using terms like "believe" and "think" is because I'm trying to infer from this rather confusing note on the Brown Co. website, plus one very brief conversation I had.
I believe they don't have the Kenosha absentees counted, either, which netted like 10k for Biden.
Did DDHQ get its hands on the Milwaukee absentees? Or is this something different? All night long there hasn't been a whole lot of clarity on exactly how many uncounted votes there have been in Milwaukee County, so I really don't know.
If there's a shift in focus here, it's that we're sort of going from "make inferences about MI/WI/PA based on results from other states" to "it's close enough to the end to actually try to count the votes there." This is especially so in WI, which is faster to count than MI/PA.
You'd *infer* that Biden was in pretty good shape in WI based on his winning MN plus his large leads in pre-election polls. But it's not quite exactly what's out there beyond a lot of Milwaukee absentees, which should make the race much closer but may or may not put Biden ahead.
There are also absentee ballots left to be counted in Kenosha, apparently. The WI absentees are likely to be very blue, so a few unreported absentees here and there in non-Milwaukee cities could make a fairly big difference.
One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
e.g. in Broward County (the rare FL county where Democrats are winning the Election Day vote)
From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)
From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)
From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)
From 3pm to 4pm, Broward was D41/R26/I33 (D +15). So this gap keeps growing.