Playbook: What blue wave?

TUESDAY WAS AN ABJECT DISASTER for Democrats in Washington. To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying. The infighting will be bloody -- as it should be.
We fielded text after text from Hill Democrats Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with existential questions about their leadership and the direction of their party.
Ds TOLD US in the weeks and months leading up to EDay that they were on track to win the majority in Senate, and they don’t appear poised to do that. Donors gave $90m to lose to @senatemajldr , $108 million to lose to @LindseyGrahamSC and $24 million to lose to @JohnCornyn .
GOP Sen. STEVE DAINES won in MT. GOP Sen. THOM TILLIS is up in NC. GOP Sen. DAVID PERDUE is above 50% in Georgia, at the moment. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS is narrowly ahead in Maine -- despite Democrat SARA GIDEON raising $69 million. Iowa Sen. JONI ERNST won her bid for 2d term.
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TOLD US that Dems would win a dozen seats in the House, and knock off a whole host of Republican incumbents, and that was completely wrong. Instead, Republicans -- powered by the @NRCC and @CLF -- beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents.
The GOP added women to their ranks. They beat Minnesota Rep. COLLIN PETERSON after a few decades of trying. Republicans beat two Democratic incumbents in the Miami area -- DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL and DONNA SHALALA. NANCY MACE beat Rep. JOE CUNNINGHAM in South Carolina.
Democratic Rep. MAX ROSE appears to be done in Staten Island. Democratic Reps. XOCHITL TORRES SMALL of New Mexico and KENDRA HORN of Oklahoma both have lost.
INSTEAD OF SITTING SOMEWHERE in the 180s, Republicans have north of 200 House seats, making themselves an extremely powerful minority no matter who wins the W.H.
AND, TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, the chair of the DCCC, Rep. CHERI BUSTOS, is struggling to hang on in her Illinois district. Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team will have a lot to think about -- and explain -- in the next few weeks. Rs could have a net gain of 10 seats
<@GOPLeader told @BresPolitico early this Wednesday morning: “We defied the odds. It’s the night of the Republican women. … The Democrats never solved one problem in their majority. They promised they would govern differently, and they didn’t.”

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More from @JakeSherman

4 Nov
a late Playbook PM
2 THINGS ARE ABOUT TO HAPPEN:
1) House Ds are beginning to grapple w what happened . The spin is pretty weak gruel, but here it is: The polling was bad, and they lost a few more incumbents than they thought they would’ve a year ago
THIS ANSWER is going to need to improve. The DCCC is a campaign organization that’s funded by membership dues, to a large degree. They’ll want to hear why the polling was so off, and why they were being told to expect a result that never came to pass.
2) NOW, HOW DO THEY GOVERN? We hit at this in Playbook this morning, but almost any governing configuration currently imaginable will be a slog for BIDEN or TRUMP. Democrats could have a nearly ungovernable House of Representatives.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
Playbook, Election Day edition: “We’re here.”

DONALD JOHN TRUMP is going into today facing a significant chance of becoming the first one-term president in nearly three decades.
JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN is pushing into states that supported TRUMP in his quest to become the oldest first-term president, and the 15th former VP to ascend to the Oval Office.
THE THROUGHLINE of this campaign and last several months of our country’s history is the TRUMP administration’s handling of the coronavirus and the economic fallout from the pandemic. Nothing more, nothing less. A quarter-million Americans are dead. Millions have gotten the virus
Read 14 tweets
2 Nov
HERE’S A QUESTION: WILL THE RECKONING ever come for House Republicans? We have a pretty good idea what Tuesday is going to look like in the House: Republicans are bracing for a whooping. Most suggest a net loss of between seven and 15 seats.
Will anyone in the House GOP leadership get held responsible? Will there be any reflection?
-- SOME REALITIES: No one has the stones -- or infrastructure -- to try to take out KEVIN MCCARTHY for leader. No one really wants to take out STEVE SCALISE (R-La.). But there’s one target that everyone is talking about: LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.).
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
Playbook this AM: HAPPY MONDAY and welcome to election week!

HERE’S SOMETHING YOU SHOULD REMEMBER going into E Day: Candidates do not get to decide they won the election. Just like football coaches don’t get to call the game at halftime (h/t @jaketapper)
BUT IT IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT to understand what President DONALD TRUMP is going to do, and AXIOS’ JONATHAN SWAN took us inside his head Sunday night. He reported TRUMP has told people he plans to declare victory if he’s ahead Tuesday.
WE SPOKE TO A FEW PEOPLE IN TRUMP WORLD on Sunday who said that they will publicly try to make the point that states and localities should make a clear delineation between the ballots that come in before Election Day and the ones that arrive afterward.
Read 6 tweets
29 Oct
Playbook this morning: @SpeakerPelosi leaves the Covid relief blame on @realDonaldTrump's doorstep

ELECTION DAY IS 5 DAYS away, and both the House and Senate are back home, so there’s little reason to be hopeful for progress on a Covid relief deal.
WE HAVE a brand new letter @SpeakerPelosi sent to @stevenmnuchin1

PELOSI lists all the areas that remain unsolved in the negotiation politico.com/f/?id=00000175…
PELOSI: "[A]s the coronavirus surges and the stock market plummets, we are still awaiting the Trump Administration's promised responses on multiple items of critical importance."
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
Playbook: AFTER BARRETT was confirmed Monday evening, we got a sneak peek at both the stylistic and substantive rift that could come to dominate the Democratic Party in 2021 and 2022, should they win the Senate and the White House.
>@SenSchumer said this while leaving the Capitol, per the Hill pool: “I have two words for McConnell’s speech: very defensive.” … ON THE FLOOR, SCHUMER looked over to the R side of the chamber and said, “You will have forfeited the right to tell us how to run” the majority. “
SCHUMER: "The American people will never forget this blatant act of bad faith.” (FWIW: We didn’t think MCCONNELL sounded defensive at all, but rather gleeful. Also, who thought Republicans had the right to tell Democrats how to run their majority in the first place?)
Read 9 tweets

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