Thread by @williamjordann

In some cases, the final margin will look like what we have now. In others, while it may not flip the state, if these are disproportionately "late mail" for example, the remaining votes could be *very different* than what's been seen so far.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1323998171408773123

And, I cannot emphasize this enough, there are as many as 5 to 6 MILLION votes yet to be counted in California alone.

An entire North Carolina yet to be posted, just in that state.

I think in terms of swing 2016-2020, depending on what's left in certain states, the story is *very much unwritten* until we have these last tranches of ~15-20% of the vote.

We knew this going in, and it's been a chaotic 12 hours, but I think it's important not to lose sight of this.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1324006621702463492

If you use the estimated vote remaining reported by the New York Times, there are approx. 21.5 million votes left to be counted.

This puts turnout around 159 million, which is reason. But let's re-emphasize that: 21 million votes left to count.

We *just* crossed 2016 in total votes counted (137.7m).

We don't know the make up. It is too early for your takes.

What that 21 million looks like if you compare total votes counted vs. 2016 turnout, and Biden's margin (this is rough).

A lot of noise, which likely means ...we need to wait.

Really gotta be careful with 2016-2020 analysis at the state level right now. Outlying results (in terms of swing) are more likely to be found in places with fewer votes counted.

e.g., having trouble making sense of this 2016-2020 swing map? That could well be because states are reporting different types of vote so far.

One reason why posting definitively about things like shift or polling error (or even margin) was/is very flawed analysis at this point even for states 90% counted. Many states have more to count than Michigan did today and we don't know what they are counting.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324142314743357443