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4 Nov, 12 tweets, 3 min read
NEW: Trump campaign briefing call going on. They claim Trump will Pennsylvania with 40k votes. "We feel like the president is in a very, very very good position." Very bullish. They are not backing down.
Trump campaign adviser @JasonMillerinDC says Trump will win Arizona. "Anyone who has called this race is just plain wrong.”
Trump campaign manager @BillStepien: "If we count all legally cast ballots we believe the president will win.”
Summary. Trump campaign argues they will
- Win Pennsylvania by 40k-ish votes
- Win Arizona by 30k-ish votes

Note R districts still to be come in Michigan + Wisconsin
Are upbeat on Nevada with the race still tight.

Bottom line: They are saying loud Trump will win.
This is how Trump team is framing legal challenges

“We want to make sure all legally cast ballots are counted. We also want to make sure illegally cast ballots are not counted" - Trump adviser @JasonMillerinDC
On Arizona, Trump camp argued that their stats better than anyone sitting in DC or New York (a quote to that effect). Say they have their own data plus insights from Republican governor there. “We trust our data, we trust our math.”
Trump campaign said 1.2 million to 1.4 million ballots still to be counted in Pennsylvania. And 500k-ish to be counted in Arizona.
Important note re the above - I am not making any judgement on the accuracy of these takes. Dems will dispute many of their presumptions.

Just sharing what Trump camp is spinning right now.
(No questions were taken at the end of the Trump campaign briefing call)
One more telling thing. Trump campaign advisers talked about winning Arizona + Pennsylvania much, much more than winning Wisconsin + Michigan. Which means a hell of a lot is riding on Arizona.
Just filled full break down of the Trump camp briefing call. Will be on our live blog here shortly: telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/0…
And here is the Biden camp take:

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More from @benrileysmith

Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Biden campaign briefing

They say Trump's legal challenges are '"meritless" and it is "inevitable" Biden will win this election. More to follow.
Biden camp say counting will be done TODAY
Biden camp: ‘At the end of the day we will win by a sizeable number of votes in Pennsylvania.” (They are behind right now)
Read 9 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: Trump campaign going v hard in a briefing call happening now about the election.

Campaign manager @BillStepien: "The Democrats lying, cheating and stealing is running rampant all over this country.”
Trump campaign setting up a hotline and website for people across the country to flag election irregularities.
Trump campaign manager @BillStepien on what they allege is happening as votes come in for Biden.

"It is a disgrace. The American people deserve better. Our democracy deserves better.”

(Short on specifics and of course contested by Dems)
Read 10 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
5 Nov
Good morning! The never-ending election continues. 5.30am in DC. Counting through the night. Both Trump + Biden still have pathways as Tuesday’s election stretches into Thurs. Harder for president, but not done yet. On and on and on it goes.
Where things stand

NEVADA
Biden 8k-ish up. 86% counted

ARIZONA
Biden 68k-ish up. 86% counted

(Win both, Biden is president)

N CAROLINA
Trump 77k-ish up. 95% counted

GEORGIA
Trump 18k-ish up. 96% counted

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 165k-ish up. 89% counted

(Alaska tbc, will be R)
The basic dynamics:

Can Trump erase Biden’s margins in Nevada and Arizona? Both AP + Fox called Arizona for B. Trump camp insisting they’ll win.

Can Biden overtake Trump in Georgia + Pennsylvania? Every vote drop (mainly postal) narrows Trump’s leads.

(N Carolina expected R)
Read 7 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
4 Nov
What is a vote? That basic qu will be central if we get really really close. Florida 2000 was about that. If a hole is half-punched in a ballot? Or there’s just a dimple? More errors are expected in postal votes (nobody helping) than in-person. 1/3
Take Pennsylvania. To vote by mail someone has to get their ballot, put it in a ‘secret’ envelope provided, then in ANOTHER envelope, then send. If you forget that 1st envelope the vote is voided. State official estimated pre-election that could be 100k votes. 2/3
Many other examples you can imagine. Voter confused by strange ballot layout (that was big in 2000). That’s before the qu of which mail votes you count, which Trump wants to contest. Only relevant if it gets v tight - Florida 2000 margin was 100s of votes - but one to watch. 3/3
Read 5 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
1 Nov
*thread*
Yes, there are first-time Trump voters. Here are some I met this week.

1) Angel Fraijo, 36. Never voted before but will now. Says his mum (a lifelong Dem) has voted Repub.
2) Sadly didn’t catch this woman’s name before she headed off. Also at the Phoenix, Arizona rally.

Cited Trump’s accomplishments when explaining why she’s backing him for the first time this year.
3) Brendan, 48, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but is alarmed at how the Dems have moved left.

Could he become that rarest thing - a Clinton-Trump voter? Says he’s “seriously, seriously” considering it. (From cancelled rally in N Carolina)
Read 7 tweets
Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
26 Oct
If Biden wins there will be an almighty scramble from the UK to keep the trade deal alive. Having chatted to well-placed sources this is my understanding for how Britain will try to save it... (quick thread) 1/?
First where we are: Talks have been running much of the year, after Brexit finally happened in Jan (freeing the UK to formally negotiate). 5th round happened this month. The delays to Brexit meant getting a deal done in Trump’s 1st term proved impossible. 2/?
Specifics of talks status are kept under lock + key but the mood music from both sides is positive. Trump’s Commerce Sec told us recently no unsurpassable issues had been raised. Similar messages from UK. Hopes of a deal first half of 2021 if Trump wins. 3/?
Read 22 tweets

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