it's not just Florida either. The Rio Grande Valley is gonna need a lot more study.
One ex.
Starr County on the border is 96% latino.
in 2016, Hillary won it 79-19
right now, Biden only leads 52-47, a 27 point swing.
some Dems say the early data suggests that there appears to be an emerging rural/urban divide among some latinos that is similar to the rural/urban divide we've been seeing with white voters, although they emphasize they are still crunching the #'s and it's early.
another one: Hidalgo County, TX
92.5% Latino.
Hillary won 68 to 28%
Biden up only 58 to 41.
That's a 23 point swing in a county w/ over 200,000 votes.
there seemed to be some denial in some Dem circles about Trump's appeal with latinos, and potential to improve upon 2016, b/c of Trump's rhetoric and actions on immigration. @davidshor was talking about this denial earlier this yr.
NEW in tonight's TrAnSiTION playBOOK:
In 2016, Ron Klain chose Hillary over Joe and admitted: “I am definitely dead to them—but I’m glad to be on Team HRC.”
Now, he's been resurrected and the frontrunner to be Biden's Chief of Staff.
PLUS... (thread) politico.com/newsletters/tr…
More west wing musical chairs:
NSA: If it's Tony Blinken, Dems expect Coons or Rice to be the frontrunner for state. But the there's no clear spot for Jake Sullivan. If it's Jake for NSA, the Dems think Blinken is a shoo-in at State.
on the econ team, Jason Furman tells us that he is NOT joining the admin: "I’m very happy with my job, my family would never let me go back to DC at this stage of our lives.”
for National Econ Council, the contenders include Jeff Zients & Ben Harris
Other bits:
The GSA stand-off continues w/ a spokesperson telling us: "There are no updates at this time and GSA’s position remains the same. An ascertainment has not yet been made."
Many congressional Dems are furious. Here's one letter today.
NEWS in tn's transition Playbook.
The networks may have called the race but the GSA hasn't and the Biden transition can't official start until they do (talk to admin depts., get govt. $$$)
"an ascertainment has not yet been made," the GSA says politico.com/newsletters/tr…
This has pushed a low-key civil servant, Emily Murphy, center stage as the law gives her sole authority when to start the transition.
The GSA wants to avoid partisanship and Trump not conceding/pending lawsuits & recounts puts her in a tricky position.
David Marchik at the Presidential Transition Center is worried about a delay
"Every day counts in a transition, this year more than any transition since 1932. The formal transition process under law should begin quickly."
(his comment isn't in the newsletter b/c it came too late)
if it's tldr, some highlights.
Defense: Michèle Flournoy, to lose.
Treasury: Lael Brainard the early frontrunner. Keep your eye on Bostic and Warren.
State: Rice, Blinken, and Coons. R senate hurts Rice's chances but she could still make it.
The bipartisan optimists say:
Mitch was the only Republican Senator to attend Beau Biden’s funeral
Former McConnell aides said Biden was just much better in his negotiating style than Obama was.
Chuck Hagel, Obama’s defense Secretary who served w/ Biden as a GOP Senator, agreed Biden is just very different at Congress relations.
Biden will be “personally involved. Obama’s style was different...Obama didn’t really understand the Congress, the Senate, like Joe does.”