Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 7 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review where I look back on the key numbers of GW 7 with a look ahead to GW 8:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

1) Who is the best captain this week? Should this be the last GW for the Son Heung Min/Harry Kane double up in our teams?

With the win against Brighton, Tottenham are now joint top for big chances in total over the last six GWs. Last week, I compared how Son and Kane fare...

... home and away. The findings allowed me to reach a conclusion where I could conclude, albeit on the basis of a limited sample size, that Son is more potent playing away while Kane might be a more reliable captaincy shout at home – and the trend continued at the weekend...

... Here I update the comparisons based on last week’s data:

Son (Home) vs Kane (Home):

Mins per shots in the box: 100 vs 27.7
Mins per big chance: 300 vs 72
Mins per big chances created: 150 vs 120
xG: 0.81 vs 3.54
FPL points per game: 4.5 vs 7.25

Son (Away) vs Kane (Away):

Mins per shots in the box: 31.5 vs 33
Mins per big chance: 36 vs 88
Mins per big chances created: 252 vs 52.8
xG: 1.91 vs 2.30
FPL points per game: 17.7 vs 14

...Captaincy is pretty much a 50/50 call between Son and Kane this week but I think given Son’s away underlying numbers and the fact that he gets additional points per goal and clean sheet, I’d lean towards him. Son has the best big chances per game ratio away from home...

... this season and remains joint third for chances created in the league, so possesses both assist and goal potential at the same time. Also let us take a further look at how menacing Spurs have been going forward in the last three GWs compared to the start of the season:

Spurs (GW 1-4) vs Spurs (GW 5-7)

Shots inside the box per game: 11.5 vs 6
Total big chances per game: 4.25 vs 2.3
Chances created per game: 12 vs 7.7

... Despite having decent fixtures in the past three GWs, there has been a significant drop in attacking stats from open play for Spurs, but with West Brom ranking worst for big chances conceded and xGc in the league over the season, a Spurs asset is a safe choice...

... to be entrusting the armband with. However, it might be worth noting that after the game with West Brom, tough fixtures await Spurs (MCI che ARS cry liv) so it might be time to ditch the double up of Son and Kane after this fixture. Another likely differential...

... candidate for captaincy can be Timo Werner with Chelsea favorites for scoring 2.5 and more goals this week according to the bookies’ odds. With relatively easy fixtures to follow (SHU new TOT LEE eve) Werner might be a shrewd option over the long term anyway.

2) Should Trent-Alexander Arnold and Andy Robertson be sold from our FPL teams?

After another missed opportunity at a clean sheet this weekend, Liverpool’s defenders have now failed to claim any clean sheet points for the past five GWs which has caused a lot of concern for...

... FPL managers who own Trent and/or Robertson. But since the pair is not only reliant on defensive returns, we cannot rule them out yet. Let us take a look at how they have fared this season:

Trent Alexander-Arnold:

Big chances created: 3 (1st for all defenders)
Chances created: 13 (1st for all defenders)
Touches in the final third: 236 (2nd of all defenders)

Andy Robertson:
Big chances created: 3 (1st for all defenders)
Chances created: 10 (3rd for all defenders)
Touches in the final third: 276 (1st of all defenders)

... With Thiago expected to return and allow Liverpool to create more chances, chances are the pair will be directly involved in attacking returns in the times to come. Liverpool defensively rank third worst for big chances this season, but encouragingly have...

... only conceded just the single big chance in the last two GWs from open play so have been unlucky in the clean sheet department over recent weeks. I am aware that selling that Trent and Robertson is popular this week but long term I think you would still want...

... at least one of them given their explosive potential, so transferring them out and bringing them in later on would be difficult since it would require additional transfers and the distribution of funds would make it awkward. Having said that, I think...

... there is enough evidence for those who own both the assets to transfer out one or the other for better value options available.

3) Has Chelsea's defence significantly improved compared to last season? Is it time to invest in Ben Chilwell and Kurt Zouma?

With a convincing win over Burnley, Chelsea now have recorded three clean sheets in the span of the past four GWs. During this period, Chelsea...

... are also joint top for conceding big chances. Their improvement could be put down to the fact that they have splurged on defensive reinforcements. For better understanding, here...

... I run an in-depth comparison on how Chelsea have been defensively both home and away this season compared to last season:

Chelsea (Home 20/21) vs Chelsea (Home 19/20):

Shots in the box conceded per game: 7 vs 4.05
Big chances conceded per game: 1.67 vs 1.11

Chelsea (Away 20/21) vs Chelsea (Away 19/20)

Shots in the box conceded per game: 5 vs 7.47
Big chances conceded per game: 1 vs 2.21

... The numbers above point to how much better significantly Chelsea are faring now defensively away from home. Their home numbers have dropped a bit but bear in mind one of the three home games this season was against Liverpool when they were playing with ten men, so the home...

... numbers might be a bit skewed. Chelsea now show a high defensive potential compared to last season and with decent fixtures to follow (SHU new TOT LEE eve) it might be a good time to invest in Ben Chilwell as his position in a reformed Chelsea defence allows him the chance...

... to become involved in attacking returns while reaping points from defensive results at the same time. I prefer Chilwell to Zouma, and think he is worth the premium. Chilwell is second for touches in the final third and chance creation for defenders since he has started...

... featuring, so his numbers have been consistent. Zouma, meanwhile, has scored thrice but has only registered a single big chance so there’s an element of overperformance to the points tally he has achieved thus far.

4) How does the Brighton defence compare this season to the last? Has their attack slacked off in recent weeks?

Brighton defence (20/21) vs Brighton defence (19/20):

Shots in the box conceded per game: 4.43 vs 9.07
Big chance conceded per game: 1.71 vs 2.16

... Comparing this season's stats with previous season shows how much Brighton have improved defensively, and with Burnley coming up next, who are second worst for xG and big chances this season, Brighton look like a likely candidate for a clean sheet...

... this GW. Tariq Lamptey remains an excellent shout having created the most chances of all Brighton defenders this season – he also features in the top five defenders for touches in the final third this season, so attacking potential is definitely there as highlighted by his...

... controversial goal vs Spurs at the weekend. Interestingly, Brighton’s attack has significantly dropped off after the opening GW’s despite their fixtures being considerably easier on paper, as highlighted below:

Brighton (GW 1-4) vs Brighton (GW 5-7):

Shots inside the box per game: 7.75 vs 6.67
Big chances per game: 2.5 vs 0.3
Minutes per chance: 6.9 vs 9.4

... Apparently, Maupay was dropped against Spurs due to attitude problems but Potter has now cleared to play him against Burnley. There are still slight doubts over his starting position but it makes sense to keep Maupay for the Burnley fixture before planning to get rid.

5) Does the Arsenal defence now deserve more and Arsenal attack deserve less attention under Mikel Arteta?

In this section, I roll the scanner over Arsenal. Following the defensive master-class against Man United, Arsenal are now ranked in the top three for big chances...

... conceded and shots inside the box conceded over the past four GW’s. However, over the same duration, Arsenal going forward have been third worst for big chances total – to further explain this here I...

... compare the underlying numbers Arsenal this season to their numbers last season under Arteta:

(read below)

Arsenal 19/20 (Under Arteta) vs Arsenal 20/21:

Shots in the box per game: 6.9 vs 5.9
Big chances per game: 1.9 vs 1.6
Minutes per chance: 9.9 vs 11
Shots in the box conceded per game: 8.95 vs 5
Big chances conceded per game: 2.35 vs 1.7

... By interpreting the aforementioned stats it can be seen that the priority this season for Arteta has been the defence, but this has come at a cost of declining numbers in the goal threat department which is also clearly shown by Arsenal being in the bottom three for xG...

... over the past four GWs. Arsenal have a good run of fixtures coming up (AVL lee WOL tot BUR SOU) so their defence could represent a differential route to gain points.

6) Who is the best Romain Saïss replacement?

I think it is fair to say that Wolves perhaps delivered their best performance of the season against Crystal Palace. Nuno opted for a more natural wing back in the shape of Rayan Aït-Nouri and it worked wonders...

... Despite Saïss’ versatility, I find it hard to believe that he will regain his place back – therefore it probably makes sense for FPL managers to get rid. The first choice for me would be Chilwell considering the stats and with favorable fixtures...

... mentioned above (SHU new TOT LEE eve). Tariq Lamptey may also be a good shout considering the value he offers long term. Alternate options consist of West Ham differentials, let us first look at how West Ham have fared defensively over a stretch of really...

... stern tests (lei tot MCI liv) and then I do a side by side comparison of how their defenders have fared this season:

West Ham (GW 4-7):

Shots in the box conceded: 20 (League Rank: 3rd)
Big chances conceded: 7 (League Rank: 4th)

Cresswell vs Masuaku vs Coufal:

Mins per chance created: 48.5 vs 89.3 vs 120
Mins per touch in the final third: 8.29 vs 4.54 vs 7.35
xA: 0.14 vs 0.11 vs 0.10
xGI: 0.19 vs 0.21 vs 0.17

... West Ham’s defensive stats are really impressive for a team which has experienced such a tough run of fixtures. Looking at their defenders individually, Masuaku provides a better goal threat and playing as a wing back is expected to be in the final third...

... more frequently as shown above but be wary if Moyes decides to shift to a back four, Masuaku may have to give way. No defender has created more chances than Cresswell this season so I think he may be worth the premium over Coufal...

... He’s being entrusted with set-piece duties and has the best bonus potential out of the three, so he’d be my pick here. Héctor Bellerín may be another differential who can offer a direct swap for Saïss. Arsenal have conceded the least amount of goals in the league, but...

... bear in mind that 19 defenders are ranking above Bellerin in the charts of chance creation and 16 likewise for touches in the final third. Bellerín may be a good shout for clean sheet points but not for attacking returns which might be contrary to general opinion.

7) Who should Danny Ings be sold for?

With Ings expected to serve some time on the sidelines, it is time managers put their faith elsewhere. Three likely candidates stand out, Timo Werner, Patrick Bamford, and Jamie Vardy. Let me take a look at each of them individually:

Timo Werner:

Minutes per shot inside the box: 40.7
Minutes per big chance: 203.3

... With Ziyech pulling the strings, chances will be a plenty for Chelsea. What’s pertinent now is that Werner is Chelsea’s first choice penalty taker – the German scored two penalties emphatically against Rennes despite Jorginho being on the pitch at the same time...

... Sheffield United have conceded the joint highest number of big chances over the last four GWs so chances of immediate returns look great.

Patrick Bamford:

Leeds under Bielsa have been the most exuberant team in the league so far, going all out in attack with...

... having the most shots inside the box and ranking second only to Liverpool in the xG column over the past four GWs. In this potent looking attacking Leeds side, Bamford is the one that stands out. No player in the league has accumulated more big chances and shots in the box...

... than him over the past couple of GWs. During this spell, Bamford has the highest xG and has scored more goals than anyone else in the league. He was unlucky not to register vs Leicester – he accumulated three big chances which was the highest he managed in a single game...

... all season, yet he blanked. I think he will continue to offer value for his price regardless of the fixtures because Leeds play the same way against every side, they just love to attack! A comparison between the first couple of GWs with the rest of the GW may better...

... show how Leeds have progressed in the attacking department,

Leeds (First two GWs) vs Leeds (Last five GWs):

Shots in the box per game: 6 v 11.8
Mins per big chance: 180 v 32.1

Jamie Vardy:

Vardy is another fascinating option who's back in form. I would however, wait on him for two weeks though. I highlighted the improvement in the Wolves defence earlier last week and after the Wolves fixture, it's Liverpool away so the ceiling isn't as high...

... I think it makes sense to wait on that one.

8) Is Jack Grealish the real deal? Callum Wilson or Ollie Watkins?

With Grealish securing another double-digit haul, he now ranks in the top three midfielders for FPL points accumulated...

... Last week, we looked at how Grealish and Barkley compared against each other since the switch to 4-3-3. Let me update those numbers,

Grealish vs Barkley (Last three GWs):

Shots in the box: 7 v 1
Big chances: 3 vs 0
Big chances created: 3 v 1
Touches in the penalty area: 33 v 8

The difference between them is as clear as night and day. Grealish is playing in an most advanced role on the pitch hence his high involvement in almost all of Villa's attacking returns comes across as no surprise. Grealish since the start of league is top for creating...

... big chances, joint second for having shots inside the box and big chances in total, and is only third in terms of touches in the final third. With having a price tag of just £7.3 million Grealish definitely looks like the real deal...

...The fixture against Southampton saw Watkins being handed penalty duties, which has made him a potentially lucrative budget striker option with the potent attacking stats of Villa in context. Another budget option which rivals Watkins in terms of big chances...

... and shots inside the box and being on penalty duties is Callum Wilson. Let us take a deep dive here to compare over the season,

Watkins vs Wilson:

Mins per shot in the box: 36 vs 41.2
Mins per big chance: 77.1 vs 69.1
Mins per penalty area touches: 13.8 vs 19.4

... By looking at these stats, there’s not much between them. Watkins would be my pick since his fixtures are better and he’s cheaper. Villa’s attacking numbers are superior to those of Newcastle’s which sees them rank in the top four for big chances and xG over the past 4 GWs.

9) What to do with Man City assets and the impact of João Cancelo on the Man City defence?

After another narrow win against Sheffield United, Man City have now only managed to score two or more goals only twice out of six games they have played. Previous week, I...

... showed how Man City had been a shadow of a team they were last season. Let us take a look at that again,

Man City first 6 games 19/20 v Man City first 6 games 20/21

Shots in the box: 94 v 54
Big chances: 32 v 11
Goals: 24 v 9

... The stats show a big difference in the attacking potential for Man City compared to last season. It is worth noting though that Man City against Sheffield United created more big chances in a single game than they managed in a league game after GW 2.

... It might be an oversight not to appreciate the impact of the addition of Cancelo in the defensive line. Here I look at how Man City have fared defensively before and after the inclusion of Cancelo,

Man City 20/21 (GW 2-4) vs Man City 20/21 (GW 5-7):

Shots in the box conceded per game: 7 vs 3.7
Big chance conceded per game: 3.3 vs 0.67

... The stats clearly show how much City have improved defensively over the past three GWs compared to the start of the season. Hence, I would urge caution on Diogo Jota this week, it looks likely he is set to keep his spot and would be a really good transfer...

... from next week onwards particularly for the owners of the likes of Podence and other midfielders in that price range – Jota has amassed six goals in four different matches in just ten days. With Cancelo ranked third for touches in the final third, top for chances...

... created and touches inside the penalty area for defenders over the last three GWs, he could offer a super differential from next week onwards too.

10) Is it worth investing in Man United's attack?

Following the defeat to Arsenal, Man United have now only scored twice in the last four league matches at home, whereas away from home they have accumulated seven goals in just a couple of GWs...

... They have shown glimpses in the Champions League but so far, that form hasn’t translated into the league with consistency. Let us look at how Man United attacking stats this season tally when compared to post restart last season:

Man United 19/20 (Post Restart) vs Man United 20/21:

Shots in the box per game: 8.1 vs 6.83
Big chances per game: 2.78 vs 1.17
Chances created per game: 9.67 vs 10.67

The underlying stats shown above highlight how Man United have been a shadow of the team they were post restart. However, they do seem to be creating more chances but a downfall in big chances and shots inside the box shows the lack of quality in the chances they create...

... Man United are currently ranked fourth worst for xG, third worst for big chances, and second worst for xG from open play since the league started. For me, Rashford, Martial, and Fernandes need to show a bit more in the league before warranting investment.

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