Thread by @donkeydownburst

GEORGIA: Conflicting info about what’s still to come & what’s in the count, but Trump’s margin of 31,000 is not at all safe. From what I’m able to piece together, that margin will be cut by ~13,500 from a Fulton County batch of ~22,000 votes. That’s an 80% margin for Biden. (1/)

It’s likely the next (and final) batch from Fulton, ~17,000 ballots probably, comes before sunrise. At a similar margin, Biden nets about 10,500 there. That shaves 24,000 off the 31,000 in Fulton alone, with outstanding vote from DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Clayton still out. (2/)

This is heavily Democratic turf, too, where Biden’s been winning TOTAL vote by over 5:1 margins. What’s out is absentee, which has been very favorable for Biden in GA & nationwide.

His target share when there were an estimated 100,000 votes to be counted was probably ~68%. (3/)

He’s been exceeding that in these counties and with these absentee votes. It seems like maybe ~60,000 votes will remain after Fulton’s final reporting, and that the margin to make up will be <10,000 when that happens.

Even getting 3:2 margins at that point would do it. (4/)

TL;DR: It’s almost definitely heading to a recount either way, but with the caveat that the information about what’s still to come is conflicting when you’re getting news from several reporters, I’m comfortable calling Joe Biden a slight favorite to take Georgia as of now. (5/5)

(Adding: That final Fulton batch is expected to be the only other vote to come out of Georgia tonight, it appears. Nothing on others until tomorrow. It’s extremely likely Trump will still be ahead when you wake up tomorrow, but he may not be by tomorrow evening.)

Of course, as soon as I tweet that thread, DeKalb comes in with conflicting information. However, perhaps it isn’t conflicting; they may have just completed it and perhaps it won’t be added to the count until tomorrow. Will watch for a bit to see what’s up here.

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1324227702367440898