Thread by @donkeydownburst

1/ Appears counts won’t be changing much tonight, so a recap for those who actually are paying attn to my thoughts. For those of you who aren’t following me for my political analysis, I don’t do it much here, but this is actually the closest thing to my area of expertise, lol.

2/ PA: Biden’s lead of 28,xxx will continue to rise significantly with something potentially close to 100,000 mail ballots to come statewide. If they’re all valid and counted, expect a ~40,000 vote net gain for Biden, conservatively.

There are ~100,000 provisional ballots out.

3/ The majority of these will likely be people who requested a ballot that did not surrender it when voting in person. These are likely to be less Biden friendly, but data indicates remaining people who requested but haven’t yet returned a mail ballot are D+17 by registration.

4/ More provisionals likely in Philly+Pitt than rest of state combined. But given Trump voters’ strong in-person preference, probable that these could be more Trump-friendly than the mail, but perhaps still slight edge for Biden.

Status: Advantage Biden. Provisionals aren’t

5/ Going for Trump 80/20, which is prob what he’ll need from provs.

My Final margin forecast: Biden ~+75,000

Call (probably): Either once the margin goes over 40,000 or once 1st batch of Philly/Pitt provisionals comes in so they can get a representative sample & know for sure.

6/ GA: Biden leads by around 4300 votes. It’s headed to a recount either way, but it seems likely that Biden will hold this. I’ve heard around 6000 provisionals statewide (many in Fulton) + an unknown (probably low) number of overseas ballots that could still arrive today.

7/ Again, these provisionals probably are something close to a wash, & the overseas may be similar. ExPats tend to lean D; military leans R, & provs in D areas probably > provs in red areas.

Final margin: Biden ~+5000, pre-recount (which won’t overturn w/o tabulation error).

8/ Call: Biden miiiiight get the apparent winner tag this weekend depending on how quickly they get these cures/provs in, but possible that this drags and nothing is called.

NV: I’ve already given this one the 🔵☑️. Biden leads by ~22,000, with almost all of the remaining ~100K

9/ Ballots still to come (~60k prov/same-day registration; ~40k Mail) come from Clark County, a Dem stronghold.

My Final margin forecast: Biden ~+50,000

Call: They could call already, but I’d say after the mail in is there and they realize Trump would need 80/20 of the provs.

10/ AZ: The least certain of the four in my opinion, but Trump’s running out of votes. Biden’s lead of 29,000 has been steadily eroding, but Trump has to win the remaining votes by close to 60-40, and he’s missed that mark with two big dumps today from Maricopa, which is where

11/ The majority of the outstanding vote remains. Additionally, the late arriving mail, Trump’s most friendly voting method still being counted, is all in. Same day drop-offs and provisionals should be less Trump-friendly, though he may erode the lead more.

12/ Final margin forecast: Biden ~+25,000

Call: Probably getting close, honestly. I think by Sunday, we’ll be there. Trump missed his mark enough times to be considered the underdog here.

I’ll look deeper @ NC when I’m not exhausted. Very little sleep. & AK almost def goes red.

13/ RACE: If it’s me at a decision desk, I’d have prooobably called it due to the increasingly difficult (see also: damn near impossible) odds Trump faces in PA. I get the uncertainty due to provisional ballots, but they’re overthinking it. Seem like washes at worst.

14/ ODDS: Biden, >99/1 favorite, margin 294-320.

I’m going the hell to sleep. I’ve had very little.

All info above are my [educated] opinions only and may have changed by the time you read this—hard to parse through occasionally conflicting and always changing information.

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(Yes I just unrolled my own thread, LOL.)