Thread by @hasufl

BTC just outperformed ETH on the day the ETH2 launch was announced. Without news of its own or heightened volume. I'm still very new to trading, but that feels like the market sending a message about the immediate future.

And my interpretation of these events is that even very bullish in-cryto events can currently not hold water to the passive macro backdrop BTC finds itself in.

This is btw one of my favorite tools so far. Interpreting how the market reacts to good and bad information and especially the absence of new information. Markets that feast on hope are crushed by the absence of new info - you can see that everywhere in Defi right now.

I‘m not saying any of that because it‘s fashionable. My views on ETH haven‘t changed for months now (and neither have my long-long-term views btw). When people asked me what I think about ETH2 I said „it‘s a non-event. ETH1 is all I care about for at least the next 2-3 years“

I also think people predicting beacon chain staking to impact supply dynamics are jumping the gun. There‘s two ways this can play out:
1) BETH/ETH trades close to par -> more and more ETH is converted, but BETH is as a close substitute on exchanges. (cont)

(Cont) When that happens, the additional inflation from staking rewards will be felt by ETH holders.

2) if BETH/ETH does *not* trade at par (which I find more likely) then I don‘t expect many people to rush in and stake to begin with

— that‘s my prediction, and I could be wrong

I think a huge milestone (bigger than ETH2) will be the launch of EIP-1559, and I continue to be closely involved with that. Hope that answers the question if I „hate“ Ethereum. If you want to support Ethereum, support EIP-1559.