T-minus two hours until new numbers supposed to be released in Nevada, where Joe Biden has a 7,500-vote lead.

Would you like a thread on what to expect at 9 AM on the best coast?

I thought you might.

Let me walk you through it.

1/
Just under 1.2 million votes have been reported. Joe Biden has about a 7,500-vote lead. I would estimate that there are at least 150,000 more votes to be counted. Almost half of those may be people who registered the same day they voted and were given provisional ballots.
2/
The provisionals will be counted last -- this is for security reasons to make sure none of these people already voted. Overwhelming majority of remaining mail ballots are in Clark County, the Dem stronghold where they have won mail ballots by huge, more than 2-to-1 margins.
3/
Clark ballots (still coming in) should favor Dems, but ? is how fast will they be released. If they only report a fraction today (likely), may not change a lot, especially if outstanding rural ballots offset. That's why Dems would like to see more of Clark reported today.
4/
The SOS plans to start reporting at 9. But the plan is to report county by county. If the rurals, where I'd guess there are more than 10K ballots remaining, go first, that could cut significantly into Biden's lead, maybe erase half of it or more. Washoe may be a...wash.
5/
Race is so close right now because Biden underperformed in Clark, where 2/3 of the vote is and Clinton won by 11. He is only up by 8 points, which has allowed the rurals to offset Clark. And it's why Dems are not celebrating NV deciding this thing. Could be close. Buckle up.
6/6

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More from @RalstonReports

6 Nov
NEWS: New NV numbers from Clark -- small batch, he's now up by 22.5K. Gain of about 2K.

It's still...over. Image
Only a few thousand ballots added, but Biden continues to win by large margin every Clark update. Third straight update that he has won by 2 to 1 or close to it:

Biden: +5,454
Trump: 2,934

Overall:

Biden: 632,558
Trump: 609,901

Lead is 22,657, or 1.6 percent
Let me show you how impossible this is for Trump here:

First, three reports of Clark ballots so far -- pattern of large proportional Biden gains. He has now almost tripled his election night lead of 7,500.

So there's that.

But bear with me...
Read 10 tweets
6 Nov
Apropos of nothing, may I remind everyone that in the history of this country, there has never been a Nevadan in a presidential Cabinet.

This is a fact. Really.

(Please don't pollute my feed with Secretary of Slow-Ballot-Counting jokes.)
I think @DTaylorUH
would make a helluva labor secretary and the Culinary did help Biden win Nevada. One of labor movement's most accomplished figures.
It would somehow be fitting if the end of @SenatorReid's career was as energy secretary. The man who stopped the DOE from putting nuclear waste at Yucca as head of DOE?
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
All right, everyone, there has been some confusion over how many ballots are left in NV -- some miscommunication, so let me clarify with latest via election officials.
In Clark:
The 51K Clark ballots that will be reported tomorrow are mail already through verification process.
1/
There are an additional 63,000 mail ballots in Clark that have been returned but have not gone though the process. A mail percentage will end up being rejected if pattern holds.
Then there are about 60,000 so-called provisionals in Clark.
2/
Those are same-day registrants that need to be verified after mail counted. And then some ballots that will arrive in the next few days mailed Monday or Tuesday.
So may be 175K in Clark, give or take, depending n rejections and new mail.
A few thousand in rest of state.
3/
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.
Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.
Washoe If no more Clark numbers post today, though, this lead will shrink when rurals post. But there tens of thousands of mail ballots to come from Clark....eventually.
Read 13 tweets
5 Nov
"The Harry Reid machine recklessly threw ballots into the mail."

Really?

Ric Grenell, Nevadan, showing just how political this is.

"They continue to count illegal votes. It is giving legal people the sense that the system is corrupt."

Legal people.
Reporters yelling for Grenell to say who he is.

His response: "Listen, you are here to take in information."

Why wouldn't he just say his name?
Now another Nevadan, Matt Schlapp, is criticizing the process, saying they won't let them check ballots.

Understand: What they are saying is they don't trust the professionals to run the election. They want partisans (i.e. them) to run the election not nonpartisans.
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
While we all wait for Washoe, some info:
Clark County will put a number on ballots left to be counted by tonight. Clark County Registrar Joe Gloria, one of the best public servants I know, will have a presser at 10 AM every day until done to announce totals, answer questions.
1/
They don't know the total because hundreds of drop boxes need to be opened and ballots unloaded. 375 of them. Mail has slowed down, though, and not a lot will come in this week, officials believe.
At state level, it's very simple: They need to get a handle on all areas of NV.
2/
Wayne Thorley, who is overseeing the SOS process, is a superb, honest public servant, too. Nothing weird is going on. No one here expected complete results on Election Night. His staff is busy counting ballots and they are going to release totals methodically.
3/
Read 4 tweets

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