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Jon Ralston

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6 Nov, 10 tweets, 3 min read

NEWS: New NV numbers from Clark -- small batch, he's now up by 22.5K. Gain of about 2K.

It's still...over.

Only a few thousand ballots added, but Biden continues to win by large margin every Clark update. Third straight update that he has won by 2 to 1 or close to it:

Biden: +5,454
Trump: 2,934

Overall:

Biden: 632,558
Trump: 609,901

Lead is 22,657, or 1.6 percent

Let me show you how impossible this is for Trump here:

First, three reports of Clark ballots so far -- pattern of large proportional Biden gains. He has now almost tripled his election night lead of 7,500.

So there's that.

But bear with me...

Let's say that suddenly the big gains Biden is making with every Clark update stop -- they won't but let's say they do. Let's say miraculously, Biden is ahead by "only" 20K after those are counted. (This is a Trump fantasy scenario where he gains in Clark.)

You with me?

That leaves 60K provisional ballots from Clark, which are about even right now -- Dems have a slight edge. Let's say they all count -- they won't, but we are in Trump fantasyland here.

Trump would have to win those Clark provisionals by more than 2-to-1 to win! In a Dem county!

So it would take giving Trump miracle scenarios in both sets of ballots that go against established patterns for him to win Nevada.

It. Is. Over.

I'm just doing math, folks.

Unlike the screaming hordes on this hellsite, I get why the networks are being cautious. I'm also happy about it.

Best-case for the #WeMatter state:

AP/Nets call for AZ later, then they call NV. NV is the decider.

The West matters!

@bendreyfuss

Sorry, yes, as @bendreyfuss corrects me, AP called for AZ.

So if AP calls NV, it's ballgame.

(Not everyone has called AZ.)

@bendreyfuss

@bendreyfuss Some more numbers so you can see:

Before these three updates of Clark mail ballots, here's what it looked like in returned mail in Clark:
414,000 total
Dems: 51 percent
Rs: 21 percent

30 points!

Clark is a super-Dem county. Repubs are going to lose ground with every update.

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More from @RalstonReports

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

6 Nov

Apropos of nothing, may I remind everyone that in the history of this country, there has never been a Nevadan in a presidential Cabinet.

This is a fact. Really.

(Please don't pollute my feed with Secretary of Slow-Ballot-Counting jokes.)

@DTaylorUH

I think @DTaylorUH
would make a helluva labor secretary and the Culinary did help Biden win Nevada. One of labor movement's most accomplished figures.

@SenatorReid

It would somehow be fitting if the end of @SenatorReid's career was as energy secretary. The man who stopped the DOE from putting nuclear waste at Yucca as head of DOE?

Read 6 tweets

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

5 Nov

All right, everyone, there has been some confusion over how many ballots are left in NV -- some miscommunication, so let me clarify with latest via election officials.
In Clark:
The 51K Clark ballots that will be reported tomorrow are mail already through verification process.
1/

There are an additional 63,000 mail ballots in Clark that have been returned but have not gone though the process. A mail percentage will end up being rejected if pattern holds.
Then there are about 60,000 so-called provisionals in Clark.
2/

Those are same-day registrants that need to be verified after mail counted. And then some ballots that will arrive in the next few days mailed Monday or Tuesday.
So may be 175K in Clark, give or take, depending n rejections and new mail.
A few thousand in rest of state.
3/

Read 4 tweets

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

5 Nov

NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.

Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.

Washoe If no more Clark numbers post today, though, this lead will shrink when rurals post. But there tens of thousands of mail ballots to come from Clark....eventually.

Read 13 tweets

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

5 Nov

"The Harry Reid machine recklessly threw ballots into the mail."

Really?

Ric Grenell, Nevadan, showing just how political this is.

"They continue to count illegal votes. It is giving legal people the sense that the system is corrupt."

Legal people.

Reporters yelling for Grenell to say who he is.

His response: "Listen, you are here to take in information."

Why wouldn't he just say his name?

Now another Nevadan, Matt Schlapp, is criticizing the process, saying they won't let them check ballots.

Understand: What they are saying is they don't trust the professionals to run the election. They want partisans (i.e. them) to run the election not nonpartisans.

Read 5 tweets

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

5 Nov

T-minus two hours until new numbers supposed to be released in Nevada, where Joe Biden has a 7,500-vote lead.

Would you like a thread on what to expect at 9 AM on the best coast?

I thought you might.

Let me walk you through it.

1/

Just under 1.2 million votes have been reported. Joe Biden has about a 7,500-vote lead. I would estimate that there are at least 150,000 more votes to be counted. Almost half of those may be people who registered the same day they voted and were given provisional ballots.
2/

The provisionals will be counted last -- this is for security reasons to make sure none of these people already voted. Overwhelming majority of remaining mail ballots are in Clark County, the Dem stronghold where they have won mail ballots by huge, more than 2-to-1 margins.
3/

Read 6 tweets

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

4 Nov

While we all wait for Washoe, some info:
Clark County will put a number on ballots left to be counted by tonight. Clark County Registrar Joe Gloria, one of the best public servants I know, will have a presser at 10 AM every day until done to announce totals, answer questions.
1/

They don't know the total because hundreds of drop boxes need to be opened and ballots unloaded. 375 of them. Mail has slowed down, though, and not a lot will come in this week, officials believe.
At state level, it's very simple: They need to get a handle on all areas of NV.
2/

Wayne Thorley, who is overseeing the SOS process, is a superb, honest public servant, too. Nothing weird is going on. No one here expected complete results on Election Night. His staff is busy counting ballots and they are going to release totals methodically.
3/

Read 4 tweets

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