Thread by @sturdyAlex

There’s a widely held belief that, if these voting cases get to the Supreme Court, all the people Trump appointed will come good and just give him the decisions he needs to win the election. I think that’s quite a bad take, for two reasons: 1/4

First, the common strand between the people Trump appointed is that they oppose Supreme Court interference in state laws. Every decision they’re looking to reverse hinges on this “originalist” constitutional view that SCoTUS should stay out of state legislation. 2/4

Second, Trump has very little to offer them and very little to threaten them with. He’s appointed them. They’re there for life. In some cases, they have decades of a judicial career ahead of them. They will not trash their reputation to do Trump any favours. 3/4

Now, in any 50/50 calls that don’t involve obvious overreach, they may well flex the margins helpfully for Trump. But they won’t make ludicrous precedent, that goes against their core conservative ideology, for someone who will be gone in four years and maybe in three months. 4/4