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Isaac Saul Profile picture
@Ike_Saul
Nov 5, 2020 • 397 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
1/ ALRIGHT Y'ALL. ELECTION FRAUD DEBUNKING MEGA THREAD. I’m following claims of fraud and looking into them. I think I’ve solved most now. Nothing is holding up under any scrutiny so far so I’m making a thread to track in one place. Please RT! #ElectionResults2020 #Election2020
2/ By far the most viral of these claims is the video of officials in Detroit papering up/boarding up the windows inside their polling center in Michigan. This, admittedly, was a bizarre sight. But was 100% explainable and was the right thing to do.
3/ Officials rightly blocked the windows when crowds came inside and began trying to film ballots. Poll watchers EXCEEDED THE LIMIT INSIDE. This is not legal - you can’t barge in and film who ppl voted for. OF COURSE, there were *134 REPUBLICAN POLL WATCHERS* inside the room.
4/ There were also 134 Democrats, 134 independents. That’s bc every election/polling place has a balanced and assigned number of watchers present at polling locations. Here’s the local story explaining it. NEXT freep.com/story/news/pol…
5/ Similarly, there have been LOTS of stories of “Republican poll watchers” not being allowed into polling places. This is all silly, and worth remembering this Detroit story. Being a poll watcher DOES NOT MEAN you can just walk into any polling station…
6/ There’s a process to ensure an even number of partisan watchers are signed up (like in Detroit) and inside polling places. Election officials don’t (and shouldn’t) allow any old swarm of watchers into their polling place. That would ruin the balance of the watchers.
7/ It appears some certified* Trump-supporting poll watchers filmed themselves trying to enter polling places and when denied made a scene. That’s how the system is supposed to work. Any election official can explain this.

*Assuming they're certified, still stupid.

NEXT.
8/ One of the most popular of these claims is a video purporting to show a 118-year-old named William Bradley who voted despite dying in 1984. I’m going to share video of a viral tweet so you can see it, then explain what’s happening:
9/ Michigan’s secretary of state already responded to this claim, pointing out that ballots of voters who have died are rejected outright, so this bizarre scene (even if it were real!) would NEVER COUNT IN A MICHIGAN ELECTION. SoS statement is here: clickondetroit.com/news/2020/11/0…
10/ In Michigan, this is even true if someone dies *between the time they sent in their ballot and Election Day* How much does that suck? The idea someone who died in 1984 would have their ballot counted is absurd.
11/ Alternatively, it's also possible William Bradley is real and his birthday is simply wrong on the Michigan voter website. Instead of 1902, he could be born in 1992 — a one-digit typo. This happens all the time. A clerk will be checking the ballot and registration records.
12/ It’s ALSO true, as election expert @ElectProject pointed out, that some states use “1900” or “1/1/1” as codes when they moved from paper to electronic records to signify a bday wasn’t available. Something like that could be at play here.
13/ Regardless, if this person is actually dead, their vote won’t count. If the bday is entered wrong, it will be resolved by a local clerk when the vote is audited. The video is real, the voter fraud claim is fake. Trump is losing Michigan by 150k votes. NEXT
14/ The other popular one is the “130k votes in Michigan” that Biden got all at once. This was a data uploading error on ElectionDeskHQ. The conservative who originally posted this conspiracy apologized and deleted is tweet, but it took off before he could stop it.
15/ Ya know the whole "lie makes it around the world twice before truth gets its pants on" -- yeah, that happened here. Even tho the original guy to tweet it retracted, story has blown up. Local paper wrote it up here: freep.com/story/news/pol…
16/ NEXT. Some people alleged that “Wisconsin had more votes than registered voters,” PROOF OF ELECTION FRAUD! This was, amazingly, idiots unaware that Wisconsin has same-day voter registration. Incredible voter fraud fail. But it went viral. Story here: jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
17/ NEXT. Relatedly, many conservative commentators have mixed up “eligible voters” (total ppl who can vote) and “registered voters” (registrations) including WSJ’s Kim Strassel. This caused serious confusion. Tim Alberta rightly calls Strassel out here:
18/ THE LEFT HAS ALSO BEEN GUILTY. Yes, you libs! Viral posts about 300k ballots going missing were TOTALLY misleading and untrue. Vice reporter Aaron Gordon is incredible on the USPS beat - you can follow him here (@A_W_Gordon) and read his story ab here: vice.com/en/article/5dp…
19/ NEXT. Many on the right were thrown off when they went to bed at 2am with Trump well-positioned in the midwest and woke up at 6am with Trump headed for defeat in Wisconsin. Quickly, allegations spread of Dems “finding” 100k absentee ballots. Nonsense.
20/ The jump occurred after the City of Milwaukee, heavily Democratic, reported its first wave of absentee ballot results (xtra Democratic). When they came in, Bidens numbers spiked by more than 100,000. The votes were reported together bc Milwaukee has a central count location.
21/ That means they don't get reported from the polling place. I watched live on CNN as election officials were escorted from the polling place to the count location to drop off ballots. Then watched the numbers come in. It was pretty cool. Story here: jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
22/ Similarly, posts went viral about a “pause” and “dump” in Milwaukee where ballots were “found.” This is a lie. Counting never stopped. The count was done and the pause was the time it took to get them from the polling place to the central counting location. NEXT.
23/ Team Trump has also been at work. In Nevada, they dragged out an elderly blind woman who said her ballot was taken in the mail and she couldn’t vote. This seemed like an isolated incident. Here is a vid they shared.
24/ BUT HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS. Funny thing about her: election officials looked into her case, and she had actually submitted two ballots - with matching signatures. Seems like she actually voted twice, which is... illegal. Sweet! Local story here: 8newsnow.com/i-team/i-team-…
25/ Some conspiracies are being spread by mainstream outlets. NY Post alleged that Pittsburgh election staff “took the day off” with 35k votes to go. This is true in the most literal sense but totally misleading. nypost.com/2020/11/05/ele…
26/ The counting was paused (in Allegheny) bc they cannot legally count remaining ballots there without the convening of a special committee that comes together tomorrow. Those votes are unlikely to be the difference, anyway. Biden will win by a healthy margin in PA. NEXT
27/ As you might expect, Project Veritas is at it too. They are claiming to have a USPS whistleblower who says late mail-in ballots were being postmarked inaccurately and sent so they’d make the deadline for Election Day. This case is interesting and open for debate.
28/ The allegations themselves are very small scale (from one location in MI), and the whistleblower is totally anonymous, even his voice. PV is known for partisan shenanigans and claims a “special agent with the office of inspector general at USPS” is investigating the claims.
29/ If that’s true, we’ll know for sure soon what happened. My guess is we don’t hear much more about this case of fraud, because I’m not at all convinced USPS is actually investigating it. But hey — PV hits the mark sometimes, so we’ll see!
30/ NEXT. Michelle Malkin, the conservative pundit who has been exiled from some Trump circles for her fringe views, claimed to have “Michigan poll observer Matthew Seely” describe how GOP watchdogs were not allowed to enter a location. Same story as Detroit, but...
31/ This one is funnier. Seely is not just a “poll watcher” — he’s also a Trump-loving political operative who claimed “The Squad” was proof we have “forgotten 9/11” last year. Here’s a 2019 story on him if you want a laugh/cry: metrotimes.com/news-hits/arch…
32/ Of course, Trump's team is trying to take Twitter conspiracies to court, and it's going about how you would expect. If you want a laugh, read this thread:
33/ They continue to lose court challenges today.

Finally, a note: the entire premise of all of these conspiracies is absurd. First, you’d have to believe Dems rigged the election but did it so poorly they lost House seats and didn’t control the Senate. LOL.
34/ Second, all of this is tied to the fact ballot counting couldn't begin in most battleground states before Election Day. Did you notice that we had results from FL and OH on time and easily, despite the fact they had heavy mail-in votes, but not GA/PA/WI/AZ? Wonder why?
35/ Thats because those states updated their laws to allow processing, counting and sorting of mail-in votes pre-election day. Republicans in PA, WI, MI, stopped these changes from happening. Dems wanted them. They created the chaos and now are using it as a political tool.
36/ Of all people, it was Jeb Bush who actually pointed out this absurd reality:
37/ Anyway. If you see fraud claims, send them my way and I'll dig in. DMs are open. I'm offering a $1,000 cash prize to anyone who can stump me -- and have been for 24 hours. So far, none have required more than 5 minutes of research. I'll update here as they come in.
38/ Also, if you don't know about Tangle -- that's my newsletter. I pull together the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day. People love it, you will too: tangle.substack.com/about
39/ Here's another good one around "turnout" in Milwaukee. Tim Alberta fact-checking the GOP spokesperson in real time. Incredible.
40/ Ah, not QUITE fraud claim but a good update for this thread. Remember how Trump wanted to stop the count in GA bc "fraud"? Turns out they just got 17k military votes that would prob help him. He's shooting himself in the foot.🤦‍♂️
41/ GOT ANOTHER. Seeing so many ppl freak out about this FiveThirtyEight update showing 23k votes for Biden and zero for Trump in Philly. Admittedly, this looks suspicious -- and I don't blame the skeptics!
42/ Unlike many others, though, this one is straightforward: it appears Biden probably just got every vote in that batch. Sounds ridiculous? Consider this... in 2012, Mitt Romney got ZERO votes across 59 voting divisions vs. Obama. 19,605 to 0. inquirer.com/philly/news/po…
43/ Philly Inquirer didn't believe the number too. So they went to the voting districts and LITERALLY TRIED FINDING SOMEONE WHO VOTED FOR ROMNEY. And guess what? They couldn't. These areas populated by almost all Black residents just didn't like him.
44/ They found Republicans -- a couple -- and none had voted for Romney. Now imagine for a moment it's 2020, and instead of 19k votes its 23k votes, and instead of Romney it's Trump, and you add in the absentee ballot dynamic (where Ds are outpacing Rs 3 to 1 across PA)
45/ Given those dynamics, it's not hard to believe that a single batch could come in from similar-looking Philly neighborhood at 23k to 0. If a regular election can pull 19k to 0, sorting by absentee first certainly makes this possible.

NEXT
46/ This is a good one I called out yesterday, from my home county in Bucks. Unlikely many people claimed I don't actually think this is a photoshopped image (even though the names look comically blurred). Just look at the top: "Democratic official sample ballot." Image
47/ This is common in elections. I'm not a fan, but I'd bet good money that there was a Republican sample ballot (with Dems name blurred out) right next door, and both were probably the legal distance from the polling place entry. When I pointed this out, I got blocked: Image
48/ Given that, plus the number of ppl replying to the original tweet saying they were from Bucks and saw these signs for Dems and Republicans all over... I'm gonna go ahead and call complete B.S.

You know what's coming.

NEXT
49/ Got another one! This one is was written up in Zero Hedge, the conspiracy website, and originated w/ this tweet from some rando. Its an allegation of "vote stuffing" (???) where Biden keeps outperforming Dem Senate candidates
50/ The tweeter and ZeroHedge are alleging that because Biden got more votes than the Democrats in the Senate races, its clear Dems are stuffing ballots (or something?) Kinda too dumb to follow, but the answer is obvious: lots of ppl are voting split ticket. Don't believe me?
51/ It's just this guy being selective about which swing state he's looking at. Take Arizona. In that race, Biden got FEWER votes than the Democratic Senate candidate -- because Trump voters split their ticket between McSally/write-ins and Mark Kelly. See? ImageImage
52/ AZ is a crucial swing state. Would be very weird for Dems not to try "ballot stuffing" there too (lol). The reality is hundreds of millions of dollars poured into GA and MI Senate races, and Trump is not well-liked, so ppl split their tickets. He's losing the race. Simple.
53/ Do you know what I'm going to say?

I feel like you know what I'm going to say.

You can feel it coming.

I feel it coming.

Say it with me.

NEXT
54/ Are you stressed? Are you wondering how stuff so stupid could spread so fast? Consider the fact this tweet got 630 RTs. Then have a laugh! Image
55/ Ah, here's another big one. Eric Trump shared this and so it blew up. This is the original tweet, which (I think?) is supposed to be proof of poll workers throwing votes out. Video is interesting:
56/ Here's the thing, though. This video is literally from a USA Today live stream from inside the polling place. Do you understand that? We are talking about an election where poll workers are LITERALLY BEING FILMED ON A LIVE STREAM and ppl think they are committing fraud.
57/ I don't really know how else to explain how silly that is. You actually have to believe that this poll worker, clearly frustrated and exhausted by some kind of soiled ballot, is *committing election fraud on camera* in front of the entire country. Rly? That's what they have?
58/ Ballots get thrown out all the time. That is, after all, what many of these same people want: ballots being tossed that aren't filled out properly. To me, this looks like a poll worker who is pissed off because Americans are dumb. Election fraud it is not

3...
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NEXT
59/ OMG I don't know how I forgot. The sharpie thing!!! In Arizona, Trump supporters said they were "forced" to vote with a sharpie and their ballot was thrown out, and that any votes cast with Sharpie were thrown out. LOLOLOL

Good example:

60/ That so many political ppl fell for this is actually pretty frightening. Anyway, it's totally ok to vote with a Sharpie in AZ. And if it bleeds through and causes an error, the machine corrects it. This has been *widely* debunked. NEXT
61/ I've just been made aware of very viral video of Joe Biden allegedly saying they put together a "voter fraud" operation. Naturally, it was shared by @mtgreenee, the newest member of Congress who fell for QAnon.
62/ Anyway, this one got some mainstream attention -- as The Washington Post pointed out, Biden is discussing putting together a commission to FIGHT voter fraud. The edit in the video, if you watch it, is hilariously bad washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
63/ There are so many of these it's actually remarkable. The right is flooding the zone, but I hope this thread can hold the line.

Let's all scream it in unison into our phones and computers together

Are you ready?

3
2
1

NEXT!
64/ This one is interesting. I can't seem to find the source, but I can point out something rather obvious that nobody else is saying -- if this is in fact from the last 72 hours in the U.S. (which it appears it is)
65/ It looks as if this person is throwing stuff out in the trash, but they aren't. They're just sorting the ballots. That's a sorting bin. That's what happens in these polling places. This is what ppl are doing all across the U.S. right now. Totally normal.
66/ And, again, THERE ARE TV's RUNNING LIVE STREAMS INSIDE THE POLLING PLACES.

This is, literally, the most transparent election of all-time. And yet these ppl think mass voter fraud is being committed with the cameras rolling??? GTFO.

NEXT
67/ Trump supporters and Trump family members continue to claim that their poll watchers are not being allowed into Philadelphia polling places. A Fox News reporter just to investigate. Guess what he found! NEXT
68/ This photo is going viral on Facebook. It purports to show a Truck with a Biden bumper sticker carrying USPS mail (presumably full of ballots) around northwest Phoenix. Image
69/ (NICE) Funny story... the person who submitted it to me then found the exact same photo being shared claiming the same thing, at the exact same intersection... but in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Got a funny feeling neither is true.

NEXT Image
70/ This story got some buzz -- claims that people were bringing in suspicious packages in the middle of the night in Detroit. There's no actual allegation here, just ppl saying "suspicious activity." Still, it's worth crushing... Image
71/ Anyway this one was shot down pretty quick. It was a local news cameraman. Again, actually more evidence of how transparent these elections are. People filming everything. wxyz.com/news/video-cla…
72/ TWO UPDATES

First, The Dispatch's data journalist says it looks like the FiveThirtyEight dump in Philly was just back-to-back data drops. Had not seen them respond to this, and offers a second plausible explanation for why the data looked the way it did. Image
73/ UPDATE #2

Turns out that 118-year-old dead Michigan voter was, as I expected, a clerical error. Logically, which tracks voter misinformation, found the actual voter -- they are relatives.

DOUBLE-NEXT

logically.ai/factchecks/lib…
74/ Lots of nice ppl keep asking if they can Venmo or send beer. I appreciate it. I run an independent & growing newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from the right & left. Plz consider becoming a paying sub! It's cheap 👍#ElectionResults2020 tangle.substack.com/subscribe
75/ Alternatively, go donate to Heavenly Harvest. A lot of people are hungry right now and they do great work sending out food pouches with an 18-month shelf life. Or do both! Cheers! heavenlyharvst.org/donate/
76/ Okay! This was BY FAR the hardest one for me yet. It took some digging, because I wasn't very familiar with Benford's law and this person is not good at Twitter, so the thread is jumbled. But this is going very viral on FB and Twitter:
77/ Basically, this anonymous person with a fresh new Twitter account claims to be applying Benford's Law to Joe Biden's vote and says they deviate so far from where they should be it's clear there is election fraud. I spent a while looking at these graphs and then realized:
78/ Benford's Law and elections must not be a new marriage. If this were simple, it'd be used everywhere to suss out fraud! So, I looked it up. And guess what: Georgetown Univ has a whole white paper on why Benford's Law can't be applied to elections. repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/5…
79/ The author came to this conclusion in no uncertain terms. This one took a LOT of work, def toughest yet, and I am now ready for a break and a beer. Keep the submissions coming, I'll try to keep up. Plz read the thread first though, getting lots of repeats now.

NEXT! Image
80/ This thread has close to 500k impressions on Twitter. Keep pumping. Baseless allegations of election fraud are getting millions of views and we have to hold the line for reality -- and to prevent whatever all this crap is leading to.

I'll keep it up as long as I can. Image
81/ When you lose Karl Rove, the jig is almost up.
82/ A lot of people asking how dead voters are caught. It totally depends on the state. In some states, if you die after voting your vote can be challenged by an election judge. Other states allow it. Most states run voter rolls against death records. chicagotribune.com/election-2020/…
83/ Remember when Trump formed a voter fraud election committee? And they had to disband after they couldn't find any voter fraud? Good times. #ElectionResults2020 apnews.com/article/f5f6a7…
84/ Fantastic addition to this thread: a poll inspector from Detroit is speaking out about the alleged 136,000 ballots being dumped there late Tuesday night. He's not nearly as nice as I am:

85/ Earlier in this thread, I cited a Georgetown study debunking Benford's Law as a tool to detect election fraud (a claim going viral online). Some people pointed out that the paper was written by an undergraduate student, and thus couldn't be taken seriously...
86/ So I kept digging. And I found another study, coming to the same conclusion, with three authors. They are from Cambridge University.

Ever heard of it?

NEXT
cambridge.org/core/journals/… Image
87/ FRESH ELECTION FRAUD CLAIMS

HOT OFF THE PRESS FROM FOX NEWS

This one from Ted Cruz, on Sean Hannity, claiming poll watchers were not allowed to observe counts in Philly today:
88/ This would be super bizarre, given that the Trump campaign ADMITTED IN COURT THAT THEY HAD OBSERVERS THERE.

Also, Philly's bipartisan election committee released a statement confirming that they had poll observers there: ImageImage
89/ Not just that, but Fox News actually sent a reporter there. And guess what? The reporter literally talked to Trump-supporting poll watchers who were overseeing the count. You literally can't make this stuff up.
90/ To recap:

-Trump campaign admitted in court they had watchers there, under threat of perjury
-Fox News interviewed pro-Trump poll watchers on the ground
-Bipartisan committee confirmed poll watchers had access

What else do you need?

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91/ Just got another great submission. This one alone has 240,000 views on Twitter. Remarkable how fast the junk spreads. Video appears to show a woman just filling out people's ballots and putting them in a pile. Clear cut election fraud!
92/ Except... look a little closer. The person across from her is reading ballots to her, and she is filling out what he is reading off. This is likely because the ballot was soiled somehow, or the machine was having trouble reading — so they are doing it by hand. Not complicated
93/ Also, I want to point out two things about this video:

1) There is a POLICE OFFICER and a poll watcher clearly monitoring these two as they do this.

2) IT'S BEING LIVESTREAMED. WE HAVE VIDEO INSIDE THE POLLING PLACES.

The transparency is wild.

You say it now.

NEXT
94/ Wow. I'm watching Fox News, and Dana Perine's show literally just fact-checked the sharpie myth in Arizona that ran on Laura Ingraham's show in the hour segment before. Never seen that before.

Fox is living in 2 different realities now, too.
95/ This thread has just broken one million impressions. Please keep sharing -- and I'll keep fielding and researching submissions as fast as I can. We are up against so much viral content, and we have to continue to hold the line on reality. Thank you all for sharing. Image
96/ I'd like to add something here: mistakes, confusion, and issues happen in elections. My mom is a registered Democrat in PA, and her mail-in ballot was rejected this year. She found out on Monday, then went to get it sorted out and found out she had not dated the envelope.
97/ While she was there, she also discovered her name was misspelled on a ballot. In a fever dream of voter fraud, a turn of events like this may appear nefarious — but it's not. It's just a product of *150 million* ppl voting in an election + human error responsible for tracking
98/ What's being alleged right now across social media is widespread, intentional election and voter fraud that would change the outcome of this race. Usually with misleading/out of context video. There's a diff between that & actual clerical errors your friends/family may have.
99/ My inbox is piling up, some with examples of ppl posting on FB that they went to go vote and were no longer registered, etc. That's not voter fraud and it's not something I can explain or debunk — it's likely something innocuous that someone is totally misreading.
100/ What I'm interested in is allegations of election/voter fraud involving multiple parties and being seen by thousands or millions of people. Please read through this whole thread before submitting, getting a lot of repeats now and struggling to keep up. Keep em comin!
101/ Apologies. Someone just alerted me #68 an #69 in this thread are the same photo. They should be showing two diff screenshots -- both alleging the same truck w/ ballots was in their cities despite them being two different cities (Albuquerque and Phoenix). Lazy lies! ImageImage
102/ I just got this DM. Been getting similar DMs like this all night. This stuff works, folks. People are not rubes — they can be moved by evidence. Holding the line on these allegations matters. When they aren't addressed, doubt creates paranoia. Please keep sharing. NEXT Image
103/ Apparently Republican Congressional candidate Kim Klacik is claiming my explanation of the two-person counting team — the woman filling out the ballot as the guy reads — is "illegal and not a thing."
104/ This is, without question, the easiest debunk of the night thus far. Via Bloomberg article on the vote counting process: "In the fifth step, workers 'remake' ballots that have readability problems or that voters made a mistake on and tried to correct—as long as the...
105/ intention of the voter can be understood—so that the ballots can be read by tabulation machines. The original ballot is attached to the remade ballot for auditing purposes. Remaking is performed by a *two-person team*; the partner of the worker pictured here is off camera...
106/ due to social distancing...

Source: bloomberg.com/news/features/…
107/ Paging @kimKBaltimore

Please stop lying to the American public.

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!!!!!!!!!!!
108/ Ohhh. Here is a really good one. This DOJ article is going viral in right-wing Twitter world -- it has a very scary headline! And yes, it is in fact real! justice.gov/usao-wdny/pr/p…
109/ Click inside, though, and you'll find a pretty big nothingburger. A USPS worker in Buffalo, NY (not an especially important swing state!) was caught at the border with... three absentee ballots. And he said he intended to deliver them but "forgot." Who knows.

NEXT! Image
110/ Quick reminder on who is overseeing elections in Georgia this year:
111/ Alright. I gotta get some sleep. Running on fumes now. I will pick this up in the a.m. Please, if you want to support work like this, consider becoming a paying subscriber to my newsletter Tangle. 12,000+ people read it every day, and it's my baby. tangle.substack.com/subscribe
112/ Alternatively, if you don't need more news in your inbox (even though all you'd ever have to read is Tangle), please go donate to Heavenly Harvest. They feed the working poor with food pouches that have an 18-month shelf life. heavenlyharvst.org/donate/
113/ Finally, if you are staying up for this race, go get some sleep. Biden is going to win PA, and then GA too. And then Nevada tomorrow. AZ is a real toss-up, but Biden is ahead and the race is over after PA flips in a few hours. #ElectionResults2020
114/ (That's not a comment of partisan preference, but just a fact from looking at the numbers. As I have been saying since 7pm yesterday: you can take it to the bank).

Gnight.
115/ GOOD MORNING. We're back in business, and it appears there's a new voting fraud theory that has taken off: the #WatchTheWater theory. This is a QAnon adjacent theory alleging ballots are watermarked by the Dept of Homeland Security with "non-radioactive isotope watermarks"
116/ As the theory goes, Dems printed "extra ballots" without knowing about these watermarks and now the QAnon folks can spot "fake ballots" that don't have the radioactive isotope watermarks on them. Needless to say, this is entirely bunk.
117/ The Dept of Homeland Security does not create or print ballots. State and local governments do. Oftentimes, they contract that printing out to the private sector. This one is farcical in how absurd it is.

NEXT

factcheck.org/2020/11/bogus-…
118/ Joe Biden has now been elected as the next president.

Please note: Biden's margins in PA, WI, MI and MN will end up being decisive — 20k to 250k in each state.

These are not margins that are going to be changed unless widespread *election* fraud is discovered.
119/ Please also note that, as of this writing, all but 1 of Trump's numerous legal challenges have failed across the country. That's because Twitter/Facebook fever dreams of fraud don't hold up in court.

I'll keep updating, but reality is becoming clear.

Hold the line.

NEXT
120/ Fox News host @RCamposDuffy is claiming that we had "universal" voting and elections are ripe for fraud when "everyone" is sent ballots. Complete and total lie. Varied by state, but most voters had to apply for a ballot -- many were rejected.

NEXT!

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
121/ This is a new voter fraud video I'm just seeing for the first time now. Like many before it, it purports to show an election official "filling out ballots" — apparently implying this is nefarious, illegal or fraud.
122/ Like a couple other examples in this thread, that's not what is happening. The woman sitting across from the man filling out the ballot is reading off a ballot, likely one that wasn't read in the machine. Also, notice the observers and the cameras rolling! #Election2020
123/ This is not fraud, there is nothing wrong happening here. This is how poll workers ensure everyone's vote is counted all across the country.

Keep holding the line.

Next!
124/ Lots of people submitting Project Veritas stuff from the last few days. I am keeping an eye on it -- it's really tough to dig into because of the way they present info and how they keep people anonymous. This should be interesting:
125/ Unlike many in the press, I am not inherently dismissive of PV. They are obviously partisan actors and political operatives (funded by Republicans) but that does not mean every hit piece they do on Democrats is simply false...
126/ What I will say about these claims so far: I do not see PV alleging that *Democrats* are committing election fraud. I see them alleging that USPS workers are backdating ballots to ensure they're counted on election day. Those are 2 very different things.
127/ And, of course, depending on where those ballots are being counted, how many there are, etc. they may or may not have any bearing on any races that matter. Details matter, right now they are vague. Voter fraud does happen. I'm looking for election fraud...
128/ All that is to say I'm keeping my eye on it. Yesterday they were claiming a USPS IG was investigating what they uncovered. Now they claim to have a worker going public. I want to see if either of those pans out before analyzing. Their videos are tough to trust. Stay tuned.
129/ Latest update here is this story out of Michigan. A lot of ppl are submitting this via DMs. Not sure what to say except a tabulation error or technical glitch is not a proof of election fraud. This stuff happens in every election.
130/ I'm very glad they caught this. Given how our voting systems work, they should be able to audit the election and ensure the county is accurate. The Michigan race is not close, so this would have to be a historic screw up to change anything.
131/ Ah, this is a good one. Ned just made this claim to 170k followers:
132/ This is a bit of a fever dream. We never got a great explanation for why the ballots were soiled at about a 19% rate, but both sides agreed to have a new election: northjersey.com/story/news/pat…
133/ We did eventually find out that a couple elected officials committed election fraud, but the system in place caught them rather easily -- and it's not at all clear that they were responsible for so many bad ballots. cnn.com/2020/08/20/pol…
134/ In fact, quite a few election experts point to Paterson as *proof* of how much integrity our system has and how hard it is to pull of election fraud. If this election had something like Paterson, it would be plain as day. The fact that it doesn't... is the point.

NEXT
135/ Okay. I promised to stay up on the O'Keefe / Project Veritas stuff. Here is their big reveal. There is a lot of really weird stuff about this.
136/ The allegation is Hopkins witnessed his supervisor “backdating” a single ballot to make it Nov. 3rd. When asked by O'Keefe, Hopkins says “I did not witness him backdating it, I witnessed him talking about backdating it.” It sounds like they're discussing one ballot.
137/ Then there is a cut, and in the next clip Hopkins is saying he heard his superiors talking about how they had “post-dated all but one of the ballots that were picked up, but had one that they made a mistake and postmarked it the 4th."
138/ But the entire interview is bizarre. O'Keefe is asking questions from a computer in his office, and then the clips of Hopkins answering are him walking around house to house - being filmed by someone not O'Keefe. There are numerous cuts in the video where the audio changes.
139/ And at times it feels like they are having two separate convos, which really gets my suspicions going. Regardless, Hopkins says in the vid that there is an inspector general investigating and he was getting heat for some kind of past transgressions. He was outed.
139/ PV has a second video up about a USPS worker in PA too. In this one, the worker alleges a nearly identical thing. Some kind of order to sort out ballots arriving after Nov. 3rd (which is totally normal). But this worker says he was "of the belief they would be backdated."
140/ You can watch that video here. It, too, is full of jump cuts and not totally clear what the worker is alleging. He says he believes an order came from "up top." PV usually releases full-length videos but I don't see one for this yet.
141/ Interestingly, O'Keefe calls the guy's boss and gets him on the phone. But in the video, O'Keefe completely cuts out the boss's answer. So we don't actually get any response to the questions -- just O'Keefe making very leading and probing accusations in the form of questions
142/ Again, that's at the end of this video:

Usually, when O'Keefe really has someone, the videos are not cut up to the rate they are here. My skepticism is EXTREMELY high. Further...
143/ Both O'Keefe and Hopkins are claiming some kind of investigation is going on. I cannot find a report of this anywhere else, though I imagine it'd be a huge story if true. And also means we'll get answers if true.

I can't dismiss this one, but I am extremely skeptical.
144/ Anyway, we're coming up on Shabbat here which is usually when I try to take 24 hours off of social media. It's been a long, exhausting week tracking this stuff, and I need another break. I think I have covered pretty much every popular allegation of election fraud, tho.
145/ I'll shamelessly repeat again for all the ppl wanting to "support" --

I have a newsletter. I humbly suggest it's one of the better things happening in the political media ecosystem right now. Please consider becoming a paying subscriber: tangle.substack.com/about
146/ Alternatively, I'll once again plug Heavenly Harvest. They are an awesome charity that donates food pouches to the working poor. Many, many Americans are struggling right now, and your money would be well-spent here. It's a small, efficient operation: heavenlyharvst.org
147/ Ah, before I go. There is one rather big one here that I haven't addressed yet. It's not an accusation of election fraud (at all), but so much focus on PA (my home state) and a lot of people talking about Republican poll workers being rejected. It's garbage.
148/ This video, in particular, was getting a lot of attention:
149/ The man in the video is Gary Feldman, a Republican committeeman who was visiting polls throughout the day. He has been speaking to press Will shared this video and telling everyone he can it was a misunderstanding and he had no trouble getting into polling places except 1.
150/ Literally, the guy is going around emphasizing that it was a totally good-faith misunderstanding. It's too much to explain in one tweet, but you can read the completely innocent and normal explanation in the screenshot below. LINK: factcheck.org/2020/11/overbl… Image
151/ Anyway, sharing the video with the hashtag #stopthesteal was dangerous and misleading and gross, and is pretty representative of the kind of crap spreading across this website and Facebook these last 72 hours.
152/ Ok, for real. I do need a break now. Will pick this up later tonight, tomorrow, this weekend, or whenever I see other stuff worth addressing and have the energy to add on here. The crash is coming!!!

NEXTTTTTTTTTTT
153/ Ugh. Ok. I'm losing the ability to let these go. This thing has 10k+ RTs alone:
154/ I've covered dead voters a lot in this thread, and the story is usually the same. But this one in particular is silly. The tweeter says "14+ thousand dead people voted"

Then circles a dataset for one single dead voter *receiving a ballot*

How do you suppose they vote?
155/ All the other stuff applies here: dead ppl sometimes get sent ballots, dead ppl sometimes don't get purged from rolls, dead ppl very rarely have their votes counted (typically only in cases when they die btwn sending their ballot and the election)
156/ Also, this person seems to be implying that 14k people are voting and all of those votes are most definitely... going to Democrats? How do they know that? 🤔

Anyway - NYT lights this stuff on fire really well in this article, which you can bookmark nytimes.com/2020/11/06/tec…
157/ Usually, I try to use local reporting to back up my tweets explaining this stuff, since I know news outlets like NYT aren't trusted by many of the folks who need to be talked out of believing these unsubstantiated rumors. But in this case, the NYT story is worth reading.
158/ You're damn right I'm gonna say it.

Next.
159/ On a more somber note, worth remembering this stuff has real world implications
160/ Two more good ones here. First, apparently this one is going viral on Twitter and in some WhatsApp chats. Pretty perfect looking shadiness when you see the guy looking around before writing on a ballot:
161/ However, there is an obvious point here. You simply can't change a by crossing a vote out and filling in a different bubble. That would soil the ballot (as anyone who has voted knows). In fact, this is a lot like all the other instances of ppl writing on ballots here...
162/ You can see when the camera pans there is another woman sitting across from him. Looks to me me like this is more of the tandem work already covered in this thread -- workers fixing ballots that machines couldn't read.
163/ Of course, once again, we are watching a live stream inside some polling station with poll watchers humming around all over the place. So you once again have to believe this guy is committing a federal crime on camera. This would clearly be news if it were actual fraud.
164/ That's another thing that's so odd about the disconnect in all these videos. We're supposed to believe that someone is committing a federal crime on camera, in front of poll watchers, across from another poll worker, and that GOP election workers are just... letting it go?
165/ Like, if we knew where this video was from, it'd take 10 minutes to find this poll worker. Why haven't they been investigated? Because anyone who has worked an election knows there's nothing nefarious here. It's just silly.

NEXT
166/ Second, here is another one from Raheem. He has been one of the biggest spreaders of election fraud conspiracies in the last 5 days. He's gained a big following and continues to mislead people. It's pretty sad.
167/ Again: all the same themes. There are clerical errors that happen, there are codes that get put in when records go from paper to electronic for bdays (like 1/1/1 or 1900), etc. But this one is actually more insidious, as @TheRealHoarse noted.
168/ Most obviously, all of these ppl talk about registered dead voters as if they are just magically voting 100% for Biden when a) they're talking about ballots being sent out or ppl being registered, NOT people actually voting and b) many of these dead ppl were registered Rs.
169/ (Very nice) Anyway, much like Michigan/PA/Wisconsin, etc., this is all recycled garbage. Dead people's votes don't count, except in cases when they a) vote by absentee and die before E-day b) are in a state that allows that to be legal...
170/ Sometimes, states miss these votes that die after sending in absentee ballots -- but they can all be challenged by election judges or state officials on the ground. GOP controls the process in PA, and they're not making challenges despite Raheem's "investigation"...
171/ Which should tell you basically all you need to know.

Lolz.*

NEXT

*remember, none of this is new material. Story from 2016:
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…
172/ I really cannot emphasize this enough. Trump's team has lawyers across PA, WI, GA and MI.

Do you think if there were *actually* evidence of thousands of dead people voting they wouldn't be in court showing it yet?

I mean, how absolutely absurd can this grift get?
173/ You know what. This is actually a great segue. @RaheemKassam's chirping inspired me! Let's take a look at how Trump's legal challenges are going, shall we?
174/ The REALLY big one that was supposed to save the election was Nevada. Remember that? 3,000 alleged ineligible votes, and Trump admin dragged out that poor blind elderly woman whose votes was stolen? Yeah, that got thrown out. 8newsnow.com/news/president…
175/ You may have also heard about that REALLY BIG SCOTUS DECISION in PA. Yeah, SCOTUS didn't do anything. In fact, they rejected Trump admin's to stop the count, and just reiterated PA should *keep doing exactly what it was doing*
176/ Trump admin went to SCOTUS to have them say what Secretary of State had already ordered, which was that ballots postmarked after election day should be separated for counting. They were doing that. AGAIN: GOP controls the process in PA, and there are no challenges.
177/ Let's go south to GA, where the election rules are also controlled by Republicans. Trump went to court claiming they had a poll watcher who saw 53 ballots being mingled with. The judge dismissed the case because the Trump admin had no evidence. Oops. ajc.com/news/georgia-j…
178/ How about MI, another state where the process is mostly controlled by Republicans. Trump campaign filed a lawsuit there, too. Not about dead voters -- because that's too silly of a conspiracy to even try (lol @RaheemKassam) but on absentees. And... freep.com/story/news/pol…
179/ Now, at this point, I know what you're thinking.

There has been SO MUCH NOISE. So many lawsuits. So many dead voters. So many late-night ballot dumps. So much video evidence.

They must be winning some court cases, right?!?! I mean, @RaheemKassam has 200k followers!!!!
180/ And you're right. They have, so far, won one legal challenge. In one polling place in Philly. Where poll watchers who were already watching the count were allowed to move closer to watch the count. philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/11/05/phi…
181/ Absolutely remarkable, devastating victory that will... literally not change a single thing. In a city where many Trump-supporting Republican officials have said the process is above board.
182/ Anyway, I'll repeat what I've been saying all week. All these verified Trump sycophants with no experience actually reporting on elections are living in a bigger bubble than liberals were in during the 2016 election. Reality is setting in.
183/ Republicans in Michigan are already jumping ship on this crap. I'm talking Betsy DeVos's Chief of Staff Republicans who have been running elections there for decades.
184/ Former PA Republicans like Sen. Rick Santorum, who has spent the last four years defending Trump at nearly every corner, are also jumping ship. Because they know how laughable all these claims are. thehill.com/policy/nationa…
185/ The verified sycophants in my mentions will be the last to let it go, and they'll move onto to some other weird niche social media grift in a few months or a year but trust me, they will move on. Because none of this stuff is actually real. And I'll be sure to check in! NEXT
186/ It’s funny how there hasn’t been a single instance of election fraud caught on tape in FL, OH, TX, NC, ME or IA, but tons in GA, PA, MI, WI, GA, NV and AZ! So weird!!!!!! Just an incredible coincidence.
187/ I’m totally, 100% sure the Trump campaign isn’t just drumming up all this crap to raise money and pay off their massive campaign debt. Right??!
188/ check out the Michigan judge’s reaction to voter fraud claims:
189/ And Tim Alberta, who has been reporting on the GOP for a very long time, putting it better than I can here:
190/ As my dear friend Charlie Kirk would say: 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
191/ Wow... 191 tweets 2 days in, and — I think — we could have a real case of election fraud in the 2020 election. Someone tweeted it at me, but my mentions are moving so fast and I lost it. If it was you, show me proof and the $1,000 could be yours. kbtx.com/2020/11/06/lim…
192/ The case is in California (lol) and it's unclear who the woman was shilling for (might be Trump or Biden), but she has been charged with 134 counts of fraud for registering ppl without their consent. Faces up to 10 years in prison...
193/ And it's also a very, very good reminder: when real election fraud happen, people get caught, and then they get charged, and then things go to court. If someone is in a video with *millions* of views "committing fraud" they prob aren't committing fraud!!!
194/ Anyway, again, if this was you - let me know. I'll file it, and if this person is proven guilty in court, I'll happily pay up.

NEXT
195/ Sorry, this case says TEXAS -- not California -- just want to correct the record there.

Anyway, very well could be someone shilling votes for Trump. And it will be litigated. We'll see!
196/ Nice context submitted here
197/ This headline, which is supposed to sound really scary, is actually very reassuring. Proof that even an insidious technical issue cannot upend an election without being noticed and fixed.
198/ Also, major LOL here. NEXT Image
199/ Trump now 0-9 in court challenges related to the election fraud.

Zero. For. Nine.
200/ One of the things that's really tough about tracking these claims is that people claiming fraud have, so far, often done it without providing evidence. Anyway, how do you explain or examine claims w/ nothing to analyze?...
201/ That's the thing at play in the latest major fraud claim, which is comically absurd. Matt Schlapp is alleging that a Harris/Biden van, well-marked, pulled into a polling station in broad daylight, opened ballots, changed the votes, put them back in envelopes and left.
202/ Now, I know what you're thinking. I must be exaggerating or misrepresenting this claim. I'm not. Here is Schlapp's direct quote: Image
203/ Anyway, I don't know what to do with this because the "whistleblower" is totally MIA and there is zero evidence to back it up. So on the one hand, I can't examine the claim. On the other hand, do I really have to?

NEXT

mediaite.com/election-2020/…
204/ There are still new conspiracies coming in by the minute. Here is the latest, from an alleged group of "anonymous data scientists" from an anonymous Twitter account, which should throw your red flags up immediately:
205/ This person shows their cards here, claiming WI was "supposed to stop accepting ballots" which is a) totally untrue and b) ignores the fact they weren't "accepting new ballots" but moving ballots from the polling station --> counting center.
206/ As I already covered in this thread, WI is somewhat unique (as all states are) in how it runs its elections. In Milwaukee, votes are not reported at the polling station. There is a central counting center. This has been explained a million times: jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
207/ Yet these anonymous data analysts apparently are totally unaware of this, and bc of the "anomaly" of Wisconsin are now implying fraud because when you graph the votes it looks different than, say, Florida. 🙄

These are getting embarrassing.

NEXT
208/ This one is now taking off too. Kyle Becker is a former Fox News writer. Notice the language of the tweet. "Red flag," "highly unlikely," "game changer."

He's essentially alleging 130,000 votes are going to be thrown out.

209/ You might imagine a claim like this would be associated with some source evidence or proof. It is, admittedly, a massive claim: that 10% of the vote in GA's biggest county will get tossed. So, his source? Another "data expert" on Twitter...
210/ Kyle's claim comes from "people's pundit," an account who sent out two declarative tweets like this last night. The first is this one, *literally* declaring 10,000 dead people's ballots were returned in Michigan w/ *no* evidence.
211/ The second is this tweet, which is what Kyle translates into fact, declares is a massive red flag, and announced could potentially change the race. Not kidding.
212/ Anyway, translating "change of address flags" --> to "change of address RED FLAGS" that are "highly likely ineligible to vote and have moved per source" is irresponsible at best and outright propagandistic B.S. at worse. It's just more of the same fever dream.
213/ The Georga Secretary of State is overseeing this election. He is a Republican ally who Trump celebrated when he was chosen. Do you suppose if there actually 130k potentially ineligible votes in a race decided by 10k votes he might... be saying something?
214/ Raffensperger is literally in Fulton County overseeing a recount/checking the process of the work there as we speak. He's been there for 2 days. He has not said a word about anything like this:
215/ Finally, of course, GA is one of the few states that is actually within the recount margin -- so close it could be changed when the race is audited. But there's a reason this election was called anyway: Biden doesn't need GA. He's a decisive winner without it.

NEXT
216/ Got a few more good ones in the last few hours. First up is via Philly GOP, which is a shame since it's my home town:
217/ Same rules apply for previous "dead voter" theories: clerical errors happen on bdays, some bdays are entered as 1/1/1 or 1/1/1900 bc of record transfers from paper to electronic, etc. But this is also more insidious. If you go to the link GOP tweeted out, you find this...
218/ “The reason some birth dates will display as 1/1/1800 is due to confidentiality reasons of the registered votes. Usually this is for victims of domestic violence.”

Is @PhillyGOP literally tweeting out lists of domestic violence survivors?

Certainly seems so! Very normal.
219/ Anyway, Biden is winning PA by 45,400 votes. So even if you added up all these votes, assumed they were all legitimately fraud, AND assumed they all voted for Biden...

He'd be winning by 44,476 votes. Okay?

NEXT.
220/ This one is from the president himself, who I must say I have avoided quoting here because I do not want to simply turn off Trump supporters. "Pennsylvania prevented us from watching much of the Ballot count," he said.

Funny thing about that...

221/ Trump actually took this claim to court. Here is an ACTUAL exchange from that case in court.

Judge: "I'm asking you as a member of the bar of this court: Are people representing Donald J Trump for president, representing the plaintiffs, in that room?"

Trump lawyer: "Yes."
222/ This is, like many other moments in the last week, a good reminder of what happens when *conspiracy theories on Twitter* are litigated in front of a judge, under oath, with the penalty of perjury at hand.

NEXT.
223/ Finally, you may have heard that two Georgia senators who just failed to secure their re-election are now calling for the Republican Secretary of State to resign. In their statement, they did not provide *a single example* of what he did wrong:
224/ Anyway, Raffensperger was LOVED by Trump until GA voted against the president. And he responded by refusing to resign while saying something I've said here already:
225/ Illegal voting happens in every election. Whether by accident or by fraud or by some dumb teenagers. But there is NO PROOF -- and still no proof -- that any election fraud happened in the 2020 presidential race that would change the outcome.

Zero.

#Election2020results
226/ Thank you to everyone still following. I do appreciate it and will keep it updated.

As I will keep saying -- no need for Venmo or beer. Instead, please subscribe to my newsletter, where I'm fixing political reporting in the U.S. #Election2020 tangle.substack.com/about
227/ Alternatively, please go donate to Heavenly Harvest, which provides food for the working poor in cities across America. Millions of families will be hungry tonight.

heavenlyharvst.org
228/ The president just RT'd this from the propaganda network OAN:
229/ First, just to be clear, a software like this would NEVER get through without being noticed, which is exactly how it was caught in the one county in MI where it happened. Canvassers saw the discrepancy and corrected the record.
230/ Second, it wasn't *actually* a glitch in the software. Which is why it only happened in one county. It was that the Antrim County clerk failed to update the system before election day.

My generation calls that "user error."

Nice try.

NEXT

freep.com/story/news/pol…
231/ Quick interjection here to say when I started this, I thought it'd be a 30 tweet thread. We're now 231 tweets in. They are FLOODING the zone in ways that exceeded even my worst expectations.

Please keep holding the line.

#Election2020results
232/ Going to happily take an assist here from @BrendanKeefe who knocks down 3 claims circulating in one tweet.

Thank you Brendan.

233/ A lot of people say this to me. My answer is no.

My Twitter inbox is full of messages from Trump supporters thanking me for the thread who said they didn't know what to think.

Reality can take a while to set it, but it's tough to avoid.
234/ Wow, catching up on DMs and EVERYONE is asking about the "Hammer and Scorecard" theory going around. This one is... a little bit over the top! No joke, this is how the theory goes...
235/ Apparently, Trump is only losing the election because of a supercomputer (Hammer) and a computer program (Scorecard) that are changing the ballot count.

Steve Bannon, former NYPD commissioner @BernardKerik and Newsmax WH correspondent @EmeraldRobinson have shared it.
236/ According to this theory, Dennis Montgomery, a former intelligence contractor is blowing the whistle, claiming he is the one who created this supercomputer and the program. Apparently, he changed his mine after upending the election (lolololol)
237/ Now, he's Team Trump! Anyway, if you report on politics, you know about Montgomery. His conspiracies and hoaxes once nearly led to the Bush administration *literally shooting planes out of the sky* -- it's an infamous hoax gone wrong in U.S. history.
238/ This claim is not new. In fact, hilariously, Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio used "HAMMER" cited it as proof of a 2015 plot to take him down. Anyway, that case went to court and you can probably guess what happened: phoenixnewtimes.com/news/joe-arpai…
239/ Fast forward to now. Montgomery is back, same story with a new flavor, claiming his program system is now being used in this election. Anyway, the theory is impossible to prove because Montgomery has literally not produced any evidence for it. At all. thedailybeast.com/infamous-hoax-…
240/ What we do have, though, is a Georgia Republican actually going on record to address the claim. He called it "flat out a hoax and nonsense."
241/ Also, the head of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has called the claim about supercomputer election fraud “nonsense."

I don't know what to say if you believe a giant supercomputer is changing thousands of county election results from D.C.

NEXT
242/ BREAKING NEWS:

Potus announces lawsuit in PA challenging validity of an election with both mail and in-person voting, which has existed for 150 years.

AGAIN - no evidence of fraud.

I cannot express to you how hard this legal team is going to fail.

243/ I just read the Trump lawsuit as fast as I could from top to bottom. cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/p…

It alleges — and I'm not kidding — a grand total of 11 specific instances of votes that need to be corrected (screenshot).

11.
That's it.

The rest is recycled Twitter innuendo. Image
244/ And it's actually not even 11, given that the 9 military ballots were already discovered, fixed and counted:

reuters.com/article/uk-fac…
245/ Things Trump hasn't tried to allege in court but verified Twitter Trump sycophants claim is true:

- A giant supercomputer is changing votes
- 100k+ votes were dumped in the middle of the night
- Winning Senate races+losing presidency=fraud
- Hundreds of dead voters
246/ Things Trump hasn't tried to allege in court but verified Twitter Trump sycophants claim is true:

- Benford's law FRAUD
- Turnout higher than possible
- 23k votes for Biden in a batch = fraud
- Election workers changing people's votes
- Biden pick-up truck full of ballots
247/ Literally, all of those theories have millions of views on this website and Facebook right now. And the Trump campaign has not made a single allegation in court that matches any of that crap.

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248/ This video is.... something else if you have just read this thread.
249/ Rudy claims RCP rescinded it's call in Pennsylvania. That is false. RCP never actually called PA. Archived version of the site from yesterday here: web.archive.org/web/2020110903…

250/ Holy crap. The Associated Press ran this headline/lede...

(Please read next week)

251/ Memo: "nothing here should be taken as any indication that the department has concluded that voting irregulation have impacted the outcome of any election...specious, speculative, fanciful or far-fetched claims should not be the basis for initiating federal inquiries."
252/ That's via WSJ. This is not what it looks like. wsj.com/livecoverage/t…
253/ Screenshot: Image
254/ I promised an update on Project Veritas. They are now offering cash rewards for election fraud evidence which... does not make me convinced that they have much evidence of election fraud.
255/ Key Tucker clip: "At this stage, the fraud that we can confirm does not seem to be enough to alter the election results. We should be honest and tell you that."
256/ People vote illegally in most elections. Liberals saying "voter fraud doesn't exist" set themselves up to be dunked on easily. I'm sure this will be illegal ballots cast in this election. Voter fraud sometimes happens...
257/ If/when the Trump campaign unearths illegal votes from 100 people across a few battleground states, do not misunderstand that to mean it somehow invalidates a 200k+ margin across those states. It doesn't. We have systems in place to catch that fraud.
258/ So far, the most important cases to be watching are the ones in Detroit, where a signed affidavit is claiming they saw illegal backdating of votes. The margin there is 148k votes. The legal brief in PA looks... sloppy. At best.
259/ Trump is going to test the limits of our institutions, and I have seen nothing to make me think the institutions won't prevail. At this point, it looks like this is -- more than anything else -- a plan to fundraise & motivate the base in GA for January. The race is over.
260/ When Tucker himself is conceding the evidence his writers and producers have found on social media is not enough to change the outcome of this race -- the evidence Trump's lawyers would attempt to bring to court certainly isn't going to do it.
261/ Wowza. Don't take it from me or Tucker Carlson -- you can take it from Erick Erickson:
262/ CNN investigates fraud claims of dead people voting. You'll never guess what happens next!
263/ Something new is happening. A bunch of candidates who had zero shot of even sniffing a win are now claiming they may still have a shot.

Errol Webber, who lost by 200,000 votes, said this:
264/ Kim Klacick, who lost by a 75-25 margin, is claiming they are raising money to investigate.

A reminder that the BIGGEST recount changes in U.S. history have moved votes by 0.11%... the biggest.
265/ Well, there have been some really tough ones to look into or suss out. But this was definitely the easiest one of the thread.

Jebediah here is mistaking the population of *Washington D.C.* for the population of Washington state.

Not kidding.

266/ I feel like it must be a parody account or something, but the same guy also tweeted this:
267/ In much more serious news, I've read through the Detroit, NV and PA filings now. A lot of people are asking me about them.

Sworn affidavits are good. I want -- and everyone should want -- people to put their names on these charges and be tried in court. This is a good step.
268/ Most of these signed affidavits have two themes:

1) Poll watchers saying they weren't given meaningful access

OR

2) Poll watchers observing ppl counting votes that don't match birthdays/voter rolls.
269/ Given the nature of this thread, I know it would be satisfying for a lot of people to watch me explain these away. There are lots of *potential* explanations in this thread for this kind of stuff, but I actually can't. These aren't like the videos or tweets...
270/ Some of these people are trained election workers or lawyers who are signing sworn statements. It's very possible some of their claims are true. It's also very possible they are partisans with no evidence. It's also very possible they misunderstood something they saw.
271/ Regardless, the good news is I don't have to "debunk" or "investigate" or explain any of those claims -- they are filed in court. So now it's just a matter of patience.

If there is a "there there" -- actual evidence and not hearsay -- we'll find out soon.

If there isn't...
272/ You can expect the cases to be thrown out or dismissed. So far, given the Trump team's track record in the last week, I would feel pretty confident that very few of these cases hold up.

I would be absolutely 100% certain none of them change the outcome of this race.
273/ Very important update here. The Trump admin invited the Organization of American States — a 28-member delegation from overseas — to monitor the polls for election fraud. They are out w/ their preliminary report. "No evidence of systematic fraud." wsj.com/livecoverage/t…
274/ Again: this is a group that THE TRUMP ADMIN INVITED IN to monitor our elections and give credence to claims of fraud. Now the group is criticizing Trump for making "baseless allegations"... you literally can't make this stuff up. Image
275/ The OAS report is worth reading. They say of Trump's allegations: "The OAS observers deployed in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia did not witness any of the aforementioned irregularities."

Again: The Trump admin invited them!
s.wsj.net/public/resourc…
276/ Local Atlanta paper is now reporting that POTUS pressured Georgia senators to attack the SoS, claiming voter fraud, otherwise he'd undermine their re-election chances.
277/ Oh my lord. The Federalist just published this op-ed claiming "I Was In Philadelphia Watching Fraud Happen. Here’s How It Went Down." Here's an excerpt (and link) thefederalist.com/2020/11/10/i-w… Image
278/ The author literally leads with the argument that he can prove Trump won Pennsylvania. Consider my intrigued! Funny thing about the story, though, which you can go read -- is that he does not level a single allegation of voter fraud. Instead, it's more gripes over observing. ImageImage
279/ I mean, this guy literally LEADS WITH an argument that he's about to prove Trump won PA. And his big closer is a link to a viral video on social media and the fact observers got to move closer to the count. How the hell does this get published? Image
280/ I've never seen a headline so divorced from the body of a story before in my life. Seriously.

NEXT
281/ Again: If you need to offer a cash prize to bring forward election fraud, a week after claiming an election was stolen, you probably don't have the evidence to back up your claims.

282/ In case you're wondering how far they're willing to go, @DeanBrowningPA is the former Lehigh commissioner in PA who has been central to voter fraud claims in the state. This is him forgetting to log out of his alternative account where he's apparently a gay Black man. Image
283/ I do this stuff for a living! Come hang out: tangle.substack.com/about
284/ Sometimes this website outdoes itself, but the alleged "burner account" before is apparently a real person.

Anyway, back to important things...

285/ The latest from the RNC spokesperson is her literally a misquoting a poll watcher's sworn affidavit as if nobody will read it:
286/ The Detroit poll watcher said they heard "at least five or six times that all five ballots were for Joe Biden."

The idea that a stack of 25 mail-in ballots in Detroit -- an urban area inside a state Trump lost by 3% (150k+ votes)-- could not all be for Biden is... laughable
287/ In fact, the odds of you picking 25 random ballots out of the absentee pile in Detroit and getting all Biden ballots seem fairly strong! This person is also not claiming the ballots were all from out of state. That's a flat out misrepresentation...
288/ The witness says they "heard" from other poll watchers that "some" of the cars delivering the ballots had license plates from outside Michigan. I've lived in NY for 6 years. I had a PA license until last year. That's not exactly the smoking gun evidence to move me. Sorry.
289/ Also, please note the context here: This person is saying that someone *GOT ON A LOUDSPEAKER AND ANNOUNCED ABSENTEE BALLOTS WERE ARRIVING* to a room full of Republican and Democrat pollwatchers.

This is how Ds are going to steal the election?

Are you kidding me?

Next!!!!!
290/ AN ABSOLUTELY MONSTER UPDATE HERE -- JAMES O'KEEFE USPS WHISTLEBLOWER HAS RECANTED HIS ALLEGATIONS

291/ Remember: After sharing the details of the video and parsing out the edits, I said that this whole thing did not smell right. Here is what I said about the investigation, way back at tweet 141 #Election2020
292/ Well, now I can dismiss this one. Turns out O'Keefe wasn't lying about the USPS inspector general, but his source was lying about his claims.

This one is gonna feel good y'all

LET US ALL DO IT TOGETHER SHALL WE?????

LET IT ALL OUT

NEXT!!!

Link: washingtonpost.com/investigations… Image
293/ Also, this
294/
295/ Hey! I made a mistake earlier! I have gotten quite a few DMs about this and now an email, and I thought I had corrected the record but am now seeing that the tweet was just in my drafts. It's regarding this (admittedly snarky) tweet:
296/ Obviously, with any closer look, this link is to Cambridge press, not the university. I was just trying to add onto the Georgetown paper I had tweeted earlier, but given that this is a thread about misinformation it's not really acceptable to make an error like that.
297/ This doesn't at all change my conclusion -- which is that lots of ink and academic research has been spent showing Benford's Law shouldn't be used to try to detect voter fraud -- but I wanted to correct the record to maintain the integrity of this thread. Thank you!
298/ I'd scream "NEXT!" at myself but instead, I'm going to pour a glass of wine.

If you like reporters who own their mistakes and appreciate feedback you should read my newsletter (yeah, I'm gna keep promoting it) tangle.substack.com/p/how-im-fixin…
299/ Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the newest members of Congress, either does not understand that there's a pandemic happening or assumes her followers are not very smart. Either way, perhaps the weakest claim of fraud yet:
300/ Can't believe we're at tweet #300.

The New York Times called elections officials in every state. Not a single one (from either party) said there was evidence of widespread fraud that change the election's outcome.

This isn't going to work. nytimes.com/2020/11/10/us/…
301/ An update from Pennsylvania: a judge asked the Trump lawyer -- directly -- if they were alleging fraud.

Judge: "Are you claiming that there is any fraud in connection with these 592 ballots?"

Trump lawyer: "To my knowledge at present, no."
302/ Judge: "Are you claiming that there is any undue or improper influence upon the elector with respect to these 592 ballots?"

Trump lawyer: "To my knowledge at present, no."

Good morning!
303/ My lord. Here is another good one. The exchange right before he's asked directly about the 592 ballots.

Judge asks -- "you don't claim that any electors or Board of the county were guilty of fraud, correct?"

Trump lawyer: Image
304/ One of the 234 affidavits the Trump team dropped in Detroit is a poll watcher saying it was suspicious that Joe Biden got votes from the military. This really is the whole thing right here. Just disbelief that Trump could lose. Image
305/ I've said it a lot outside of this thread but I'll say it again here because it's relevant:

Trump's base, his biggest fans, are in a MUCH more isolated bubble in this election than liberals were in 2016 when they missed the rise of Trump.

It's not even close.
306/ Welp, the WSJ editorial board has already moved on 😂 Image
307/ It hasn't happened yet, but my prediction is you are about to see this story BLOW UP in right-wing Twitter. Trump will probably tweet it out:
308/ So let me nip it in the bud: this was always going to happen. GA was gonna hand count a race as part of their audit and it's good they're choosing the presidential race. I hope it closes the book on this crap.
309/ It's also the thousandth reminder that we have all these things in place (canvasses, audits, recounts, paper ballots, hand counts, etc) to prevent gigantic massive widespread fraud that would change an election.

The fact these things exist is what makes our system good.
310/ Quite a few people have sent me this video now from Shiva Ayyadurai aka V.A. Shiva. It's over an hour long and I'm not going to watch it. Why? Because anyone who has spent time looking at conspiracy theories knows who Shiva is. pscp.tv/va_shiva/1BdGY…
311/ I do have finite time. All you have to do is Google him to answer the question of whether he would have some secret mathematical model to unlock fraud or not.

NEXT
312/ Quick check-in on the Republican commissioner in Philadelphia:
313/ Quite a few people have now asked me about this tweet and video, which has 33k RTs (as much as this thread). It's truly alarming that ppl think CNN's vote totals are somehow official when on screen, but I'll address it anyway.
314/ It's pretty clear to me that CNN's producers are looking at vote totals as they come in an updating the count live on screen. Clearly, they added the wrong total to Trump here -- instead of Biden. Most news stations are gathering vote totals from places like Edison Research.
315/ When a county has a new set of votes, they update their site. News stations and outlets are scraping these cites and punching them into their own graphics. The idea that CNN changing an initial vote count would work in reverse and change a state/county count is very silly.
316/ Anyway, we've seen counties upload data with a digit error or accidentally adding a 0 and then removing it, etc. That stuff is unfortunate. But this looks even less serious. CNN does not control vote tabulations -- duh.

NEXT
317/ Washington Post has put together a rather good round-up of the Trump team's most embarrassing moments so far in court. Some referenced here already: washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
318/ Ah, yes. Democrats swooping in to steal ballots in the classic battleground state of... California.
319/ I mean, these guys are literally in California, badges on, broad daylight, talking to some rando with a camera and showing her their IDs.

How nuts do you have to be to believe this is fraud?
320/ If for some reason you're still convinced, here you go:
321/ Meanwhile, in Georgia, the Republican Secretary of State just spelled it out as clearly as he could for everyone:
322/ Reality check from Karl Rove in WSJ: "This Election Result Won’t Be Overturned... Recounts occasionally change margins in the hundreds, never in the tens of thousands."

wsj.com/articles/this-…
323/ Perhaps, and bear with me, this is in part due to the kinds of witnesses the Trump campaign is bringing to court...
324/ Hi friends! 👋

An update from Arizona:
325/ It is not just the right spreading election conspiracies!!!
326/ Alright everyone. I listened to the entire "unedited" interview between USPS worker Richard Hopkins and the inspector general. This guy is *not* a reliable narrator and this video does not look good for PV. Important timestamped link:

327/ I honestly feel bad for Hopkins. The story here appears to be that PV lawyers wrote up an affidavit he signed without understanding he was making a legally binding accusation of what happened to him. He seems genuinely shocked when investigators tell him that.
328/ Far from being "coerced" or "bullied" the IGs here are actually quite soft with Hopkins, frequently reminding him that he can stop talking at any time and checking in to ask if he's okay because he looks overwhelmed. They do this dozens of times throughout.
329/ It's so cordial that at the end Hopkins actually *tells them* he's secretly recording the conversation, at which point they inform him they could take the recording but don't (because they clearly understand they didn't do anything wrong during the convo).
330/ This story is exactly as I expected. Hopkins heard something that sounded fishy. He told this exaggerated tale to PV. Then PV blew it up, created a legal document, had Hopkins sign it and the moment he realized his story was going to court he recanted.
331/ Sorry, but if he's willing to make these allegations on YouTube but not in a federal court, they are not real allegations. They are not worth our time. They are not evidence of fraud. You can find the relevant convo in the middle of the video here:
332/ I'm putting this one to bed. For good now.

Goodnight.

NEXT
333/ We're at that time where I'd like to invite you to Tangle, my politics newsletter where I summarize the best arguments from the right and left on the stories of the day. If you want to support this work, please become a paying subscriber! tangle.substack.com/about
334/ FWIW, I'm planning to write up a story summarizing this thread for Tangle tomorrow -- so there will soon be a narrative piece explaining these allegations and tying them together in one place. Subscribers will get it in their inbox at 12 EST tomorrow. tangle.substack.com/about
335/ The latest from POTUS. Some responses to this are obvious, but I'd like to offer them anyway:
336/ Number 1: voting software can't "delete" votes. Votes are cast on ballots and read by software in computers. If there were millions of votes missing, we would know immediately via canvassing and recounts (where ballots are checked vs. machine returns). That has not happened.
337/ Number 2: So far, Dominion has been under scrutiny in just two counties in GA and MI. In all of the cases where there were issues raised about the vote counting, it had nothing to do with the software -- but with human error implementing it. This happens in every election.
338/ Number 3: We saw this unfold in 2018 in Georgia. These were the same machines being used by voters there when they caused serious headaches for election officials. This is not the first rodeo with these things.
339: Number 4: The only county where votes were actually "switched" was Antrim. And it was caught almost immediately. Why? Because election workers thought the results looked odd, investigated, and found they had *counted* the ballots correctly but *reported* them incorrectly.
340/ Number 5: I'd like to just pause for a moment and acknowledge that the president is currently spreading these allegations in direct contradiction to even his most staunch supporters overseeing these elections. It is actually an embarrassment to the country.

NEXT
341/ Want to point out that Fox & Friends host Jedidiah Bila has shared this thread. As have R politicians and pundits. My inbox is full of Trump supporters thanking me privately.

It's worth doing this work bc holding the line on reality matters. It's working. Don't stop. ImageImage
342/ Yesterday, I said all this stuff with "fall apart" with a drip drip drip of Republicans abandoning Trump, losses in court, and inching Biden closer to office. 24 hours later I can report confidently it's all happening:
343/ Republican senators may indulge this stuff on social media, but they also understand there is a country to run and some serious issues at stake. Get ready for a lot more of this:
344/ The game is afoot, my friends. Drip drip drip
345/ It’s really hard to overstate how embarrassing this is getting. For Trump, for members of Congress who entertained this, for all the clowns on Twitter who promoted it.
346/ Hi. I turned my viral election fraud thread into a story that examines and deconstructs the allegations along with how all of this is playing out in court (not good for Trump!). We are 10 days in, and there are still no claims of fraud holding up. tangle.substack.com/p/election-fra…
347/ BTW. There are a lot of ppl worth following who are examining these claims and informed my thread here.
@bradheath, @grace_panetta, @SSTrihan, @marceelias, @JonathanTamari, @RalstonReports, @KlasfeldReports, @ElectProject, @thedispatch, @alanfeuer. All worth your time.
348/ Welp, it's time for me to log off and spend a little time with my woman for the first time since Election Day.

If you haven't yet, please check out Tangle. It's my baby. People love it. If you're reading this, you will too.

Shabbat Shalom!

tangle.substack.com/about
349/ Oh my goodness. Nevada update: “A GOP-produced list of allegedly illegal voters in the state turned out to be legal voters who were soldiers, sailors and their spouses stationed elsewhere.” politico.com/amp/news/2020/…
350/ Welp, we have our first "Dominion Voting Systems whistleblower." Her name is Melissa Carone. She's being sold as an "IT worker" who apparently has figured out how the company is executing the greatest theft in American history. She went on Lou Dobbs:
351/ It should go without saying, but I suppose it doesn't, get contracted to do IT for a multi-million dollar company probably doesn't make her an expert or some high-level clearance person, but whatever.

Anyway...
352/ Key to her entire claim is that Detroit was shipping in a bunch of ballots for Biden that they hid inside trucks that were supposed to be delivering food. Except, when asked about what was inside those trucks, she literally says she didn't see. I'm not kidding.
353/ Here is a timestamped version of her interview where Dobbs' asks her and she says she never saw. This one was fun while it lasted, I guess?

NEXT

354/ Addendum: a friend just pointed out a really hilarious part of this video, which is that they always emphasize that something was coming out of the BACK OF THE VAN, as if this is supposed to make it suspicious. Like they should have unloaded through the driver's seat. LOL
355/ I somehow missed this in the deluge, but h/t @ASFleischman who points out a Michigan judge has already thrown out Carone's claims, writing "the allegations simply are not credible" and noting they diverged from every other witnesses' accounts.
Image
356/ Update: the recount in Georgia that was supposed to prove the Dominion Voting Systems were flipping votes is now a "fake" recount. I imagine Trump is getting news on the ground that the recount is not producing results he likes.
357/ Update from Wisconsin: Trump team just bailed on another lawsuit alleging "illegal ballot stuffing, ballot harvesting, and other illegal voting." No explanation yet, but not sure how long they can keep this up. lawandcrime.com/2020-election/…
358/ No joke, every American should read this interview Georgia's Republican Secretary of State just gave to The Washington Post. It's one of the most important stories published in the paper this year. Please RT. washingtonpost.com/politics/brad-…
359/ BUCKLE UP EVERYONE - you're about to hear a LOT about this "Georgia found 2,600 votes for Trump!" story regarding the recount. Please, please, please read the fine print — I can already tell this one is gna go viral ajc.com/politics/georg…
360/ Yes, Georgia's audit just discovered that Floyd County had not counted 2,600 votes. Yes, this is a big deal. Yes, it's a good thing they found it. But it is NOT going to be a widespread issue. The total net for Trump is likely ~800 votes (he trails by 14,000)...
361/ The issue occurred because county officials in Floyd (a heavily pro-Trump county!) forgot to upload a memory stick of votes. Not kidding. Image
362/ This is NOT a "Dominion Voting Systems" error.

This is NOT Biden votes flipping to Trump.

This is NOT Trump votes being suppressed.

This is NOT machines glitching.

This is NOT nefarious.

It was a human error in a very Trump-friendly county.

Audits are good.
363/ Anyway, I already see really bad tweets like this one trying to "extrapolate" what would happen if this error were applied across all of Georgia. It's nonsense.
364/ This audit is happening across GA and this is the first major red flag that popped up. It's good they found it, but it has nothing to do with votes being counted incorrectly or illegal votes being counted. It has to do w/ someone not uploading a memory stick of votes.

NEXT
365/ I'm telling you guys. Floyd County is already trending on Twitter. They are going to run with this crazy. Hold the line on reality, please! Image
366/ They're already running with it... ImageImageImage
367/ Also, I'm seeing all these tweets about Clark County, NV, and the election results there. Yes, there was an audit. Yes, like any audit they found issues (double voters, people voting in the wrong precinct, etc.)

One tweet in particular is this:
368/ Please read that closely. That is the District C race which was decided by *10 votes*

Nevada's presidential returns are not about to change.

Thank you.
369/ To be clear about Floyd County, GA: what happened is remarkable. One of the biggest screw-ups in any election that I've heard of -- and maybe the biggest vote change in an audit in GA ever.

That person is almost certainly going to lose their job.

It's just not fraud.
370/ Heya! Yes, this (kind of) just happened again. Fayette County, GA, is saying there was another memory stick of early votes -- this time 2,700 -- that went uncounted. However, it's not the same situation as Floyd County, GA...
371/ In Floyd County, the memory stick of votes never inserted into a voting machine. In Fayette, the stick was uploaded but the vote was uploaded improperly, according to these early reports. Two different but similar cases.

Either way, again, this is pretty stunning!
372/ It's NOT fraud. It's NOT vote switching. It's NOT a glitch. It's NOT anything wrong with Dominion Voting Systems.

It's just another remarkable human screw up in another pro-Trump county (it's prob a safe bet these election workers are not trying to *hurt* Trump)...
373/ Regardless, I really don't know of any audit producing 4,000+ previous unknown votes in a state election. That seems very, very high. It still isn't going to change the race (Biden's margin is still above 12,000) but very surprising nonetheless.

Audits are good!
374/ Update on Rudy Giuliani in Pennsylvania:
375/ Biden's Georgia win is a couple days away from being locked in:
376/ The Wall Street Journal editorial board is now debunking Dominion Voting Systems conspiracies, explaining how all the rumors are starting and demanding Trump provide evidence for his claims.

Drip drip.

wsj.com/articles/rage-…
377/ For everyone tweeting this at me, here you go:
378/ Not sure what this latest Trump vid is supposed to show but I'll tell you what I see

- Transparent process of election workers being filmed
- Election worker trying hard to double-check his work
- Boxes of paper ballots that are part of hand recount

379/ Again, finding counting errors or mistakes or missing votes is not at all what these people are alleging has happened. They're alleging massive, widespread fraud. Not mistakes.

So far, they have none of the former and very, very little of the latter.
380/ By the way, Dominion Voting Systems are used in Wisconsin, but Trump isn't asking for recounts in the counties where they are used.

I wonder why?

Makes ya think!
381/ The Trump camp has now dropped its lawsuit in Michigan. Certification there and in Georgia are imminent.
382/ I'm losing track, but I think this makes Team Trump 1-32 in court now.
383/ Updating this thread: The Georgia recount is finished! Vote margin changes by 0.0099%. Joe Biden wins the state by 12,284 votes. The vote will be certified tomorrow.

NEXT
384/ Tucker Carlson invited one of Trump's lawyers onto his show to explain the Dominion Voting Systems conspiracy. He asked her to provide evidence, and you'll never guess what happened next!
385/ BREAKING: Georgia Secretary of State has certified Joe Biden's win. Reminder: this hand recount was supposed to prove Dominion Voting System was switching votes.

It didn't.

It's over.

This time for good.

NEXT Image
386/ Not sure if you've heard, but things are going very, very badly for Rudy Giuliani in Pennsylvania.

I've gotta say, this "updates" part of the thread is a lot more soothing than the first 300 tweets.

387/ Remember the meeting between Trump and GOP lawmakers everyone freaked out about? Yeah. They told him they needed COVID-19 relief and they were gonna certify the election results (duh).
washingtonpost.com/elections/2020…
388/ Pennsylvania court room just threw the Trump campaigns lawsuit out, perhaps the most important and authoritative legal response yet.
389/ I know there is a lot to keep track of, but worth noting this is literally the top lawsuit Jenna Ellis was bragging about... approximately 4 hours ago.
390/ Hey, everyone! I just wanted to drop a FINAL UPDATE and say I’m closing this thread. I want to explain why:

We are 3 weeks from the election, most of the claims being sent to me are now repeats, and not a single Trump team claim has gotten any traction in any courtroom…
391/ This is the reality. Trump’s legal team is barely alleging the kind of nefarious stuff they have on social media that I’m examining in this thread, and when they have — claims of barred poll watchers to rescanning ballots — the claims have been tossed in definitive fashion.
392/ Judges in PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA and NV have slammed the door shut on Trump. States will certify between now and Xmas. While a few thousand mail ballots may get tossed, and some drama may come, courts have been unequivocal in the response to claims of fraud: there’s no evidence
393/ Last night’s “departure” of Sidney Powell, who spread the most absurd allegation yet (Dominion Voting Systems switching millions of votes), is the dying breath of all this. With near certainty, Trump is now moving onto another fight to make voting harder. He knows he's done
394/ All this is to say: I think we’ve hit the threshold where elevating and deconstructing these claims would only serve to amplify or legitimatize them more, and I’ve “seen enough” to know it’s B.S. If that changes and claims come up worth addressing, I’ll reopen the thread.
395/ It’s been a wild ride. I never thought this would get to nearly 400 tweets when I started it with 20. Thank you all for following and for sharing. I’ve heard from hundreds of people whose minds were changed (or changed the minds of others), including Trump supporters.
END/ But for now, it’s clearer than ever this over. Biden will be POTUS. This won't change. And for that, all I have to say is…

NEXT!!!!

(And please go subscribe to my newsletter, you can read today’s edition about Trump’s legal fight below)
tangle.substack.com/p/trump-overtu…

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More from @Ike_Saul

Isaac Saul Profile picture
Apr 17, 2023
1/ Don’t talk about this much publicly, but 3.5 years ago, I was in one of the darkest places I had ever been. I had applied to about 60 jobs and gotten zero of them. On seven occasions, I was a finalist for a reporting job I really wanted. All seven times, I got rejected.
2/ I had no idea what to do. My gig at the time, where I'd been for 7 years, was turning into a full on video outlet. I was no longer writing. I had ideas I wanted to execute but no idea how. Then my former colleague/boss/friend @catematthews mentioned something called Substack.
3/ I had some ideas I wanted to execute, namely a politics newsletter that summarized arguments from across the right & left on big, divisive issues. So I started a Substack, came up with a name, and sent out a few crude emails. Today, I just got this notification from Stripe: Image
Read 9 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023
Here are 5 of the most interesting political misconceptions that exist and persist in America today 🧵
1. “The Supreme Court is hopelessly divided.” Actually, over the last decade, 43% of all SCOTUS decisions were 9-0 *unanimous* decisions. In 2021-2022, roughly 60% were 9-0, 8-1, or 7-2 decisions. scotusblog.com/2022/07/as-una…
2. “Democrats hate police.” Ask a Republican, and they’ll estimate that about half of all Democrats think most police are bad people. Reality? Less than 20%. This is part of the “perception gap” perceptiongap.us
Read 8 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
Dec 20, 2022
Every day, I write to one of the most politically diverse audiences (maybe *the* most?) in all of political news. Here are the five pieces from @TangleNews that got the most positive feedback from across the political spectrum this year:

1. Seeing Ghosts readtangle.com/seeing-ghosts/
2. The whole point of Tangle, and why you need to get out of your bubble: readtangle.com/the-whole-poin…
3. My solutions to mass shootings, and some reflections on the current state of gun deaths in America readtangle.com/texas-school-s…
Read 6 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
Dec 20, 2022
If you think the NYTimes purposefully included a swastika in its crossword puzzle please get to therapy
If you actually need an explanation

1) This isn't what a swastika looks like
2) This shape happens when creating crosswords
3) The reader who made this crossword proudly explained the design!
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022
1/ A few preemptive "election fraud" notes & what to expect on #ElectionDay2022

First, Pennsylvania's votes will take a while to count. You can take it to the bank that Dr. Oz will open with a big lead when the first tallies are released, and it will get closer as it goes on...
2/ That's because Republican state legislatures in states like PA, WI, and MI do NOT allow mail-in voting to be processed before election day. In OH and FL, Republicans allow this, so the count comes in quicker. It's an easy fix but they didn't fix it. 🤷‍♂️
3/ So, you can expand this to any state that has mail-in voting and doesn't allow processing before election day... don't be surprised if Rs open up some big leads in swing states and then those leads narrow and mail-in votes are tallied (which will skew heavy Dem)
Read 12 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
Jun 15, 2022
1/ HELLO: I believe a lot of people are missing the point about Jan. 6th and what the #January6thCommitteeHearings are showing.

The Capitol riots were a horrible stain on our history.

But what led up to them was more dangerous.

To summarize what we now know:
2/ As the last returns began to trickle in on the early morning after election night, Trump's team understood that final results were still days away. Trump responded by announcing prematurely that he had won the election.
3/ When, days after election day, his top data analyst informed the president he was going to lose, he ignored him and insisted the results were wrong or stolen or corrupted.
Read 18 tweets

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