Quick thread on Alaska's U.S. Senate race, since people have been asking about it this morning.
Dem-endorsed independent Al Gross, who's trailing by nearly 60,000 votes put out a memo this morning saying: We still think we're going to win. Here it is #AKleg #AKsen #AKelect (1/x)
Dem-endorsed independent Al Gross, who's trailing by nearly 60,000 votes put out a memo this morning saying: We still think we're going to win. Here it is #AKleg #AKsen #AKelect (1/x)
Their argument, summarized, is: Only about 200,000 votes have been counted so far, and as many as 150,000 absentee/early/questioned ballots won't be counted until starting next week (more on that delay in a separate story).
Gross: "A question mark on this race should remain"
Gross: "A question mark on this race should remain"
The campaign of Gross' opponent, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, sees the math very differently -- as do a number of Dems/progressives I've spoken to.
Gross trails by about 60,000 votes. In theory, he needs to win @ least 70% of the uncounted votes to pull even.
Gross trails by about 60,000 votes. In theory, he needs to win @ least 70% of the uncounted votes to pull even.
That seems like a steep hill to climb, but the path gets even tougher when you consider that of the absentee ballots received by the state (more than 115,000 of the total), about 1/4 were requested by Democratic voters and 1/4 were requested by Republicans. (breakdown in photo)
If you assume, reasonably, that D's voted for Gross and R's for Sullivan, and you also assume that the remaining uncounted early and questioned ballots track similarly with the absentees' party affiliation, those D and R ballots cancel each other out+Gross doesn't make progress.
That leaves a universe of some 60,000-75,000 absentee/early/questioned ballots from independent voters that are in play. Given Gross' nearly 60,000-vote deficit, he's have to win almost literally all of those votes, or 80% if it's 75k outstanding votes, to pull even #AKsen #AKleg
I'm not a data analyst; this is all very preliminary and broad strokes, but it also makes intuitive sense. We've asked Gross' campaign to rebut this analysis w details, but what they've said so far is simply that their analysis is different and pointed to the # of uncounted votes
Nobody in Alaska or anywhere else has called the race yet, and we'll continue tracking developments and report on the ballot-counting when it happens next week. (End of thread.) #AKleg #AKsen #AKelect
Gross spokesman Matt Lehner adds:
"Dan Sullivan has been handed everything in his life. This Senate seat won't be. We have a path and believe winning is possible." #AKleg #AKsen #AKelect
"Dan Sullivan has been handed everything in his life. This Senate seat won't be. We have a path and believe winning is possible." #AKleg #AKsen #AKelect
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