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François Chollet Profile picture
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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
If you plot the linear trendlines for the GA and PA data (very linear in the case of PA) you see Biden winning both. Though not by much
GA: check. PA in the morning.
The emotional rollercoaster on election night would have been very different if all ballots had been counted quickly.
Believe it or not, _when_ you tabulate a vote cast before the deadline does not impart it with more or less importance...

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More from @fchollet

François Chollet Profile picture
4 Nov
Plenty of ballots left to count (and remember, things will get bluer over time as mail-in ballots get tallied). But I hoped we'd see a clear winner tonight, and the fact that it's looking unlikely is disappointing beyond words
Time and time again, I keep believing in everything good about America, and America keeps breaking my heart.

Like in 2016, I'm taken by surprise. I am fundamentally unable to foresee these things, because it would mean having such a low view of America.
It's like if your best friend turns out to be a murderer. You couldn't foresee it -- you wouldn't have been their friend if you could.

I just can't come to terms with the awfulness. So I just keep getting my heart broken with every news
Read 4 tweets
François Chollet Profile picture
24 Oct
It's easy to use deep learning to generate notes that sound like music, in the same way that it's easy to generate text that looks like natural language.

But it's nearly impossible to generate *good* music that way, much like you can't generate a good 2-page story or poem
With two caveats:

1. Plagiarism. If you near-copy large chunks of a good piece, these chunks will be good.

2. Large-scale curation. If you generate thousands of samples and hand-pick the best, they may be good by happenstance (especially for music, where the space is smaller)
However, algorithms (and ML in particular) absolutely do have a role to play in music creation. What's broken is the general approach of statistical mimicry, e.g. raw deep learning.

To generate good music programmatically, you need an algorithmic model of what makes music good.
Read 5 tweets
François Chollet Profile picture
10 Oct
Factors of success of a system over different timescales

Short term: execution
Medium term: strategy
Long term: meta (make a better system)
For you as an individual, long-term success thus depends on learning and exploration
And a system that never changes cannot be successful over an indefinite timescale
Read 4 tweets
François Chollet Profile picture
9 Oct
Three things we've released recently that I'm extremely excited about:

1. TensorFlow Cloud: add one-line to your notebook or project to start training your model in the cloud in a distributed way.
keras.io/guides/trainin…
2. Keras Preprocessing Layers: build end-to-end models that take as input raw strings or raw structured data samples. Handles string splitting, feature value indexing & encoding, image data augmentation, etc.

keras.io/guides/preproc…
3. KerasTuner: flexible and efficient hyperparameter tuning for Keras models.

tensorflow.org/tutorials/kera…
Read 4 tweets
François Chollet Profile picture
26 Sep
Facebook says fanning the flames of hate gets you more engagement, and it's ok to do it because it happened before, in the 1930s, with nothing bad coming from it
To quote @Grady_Booch: Facebook is a profoundly unethical company, and it starts at the top.

Fully aware of its own immense influence power, FB deliberately decides to use it in service of far-right radicalization, in order to create "engagement".
Honestly the take "the fact that it happened in the 1930s shows that it's part of human nature and therefore it's fine to encourage it" blows my mind.

Of course it's part of human nature. This realization is at the core of what "never again" means.
Read 5 tweets
François Chollet Profile picture
21 Sep
This is a strange take -- in virtually every country the center-left has been pro-lockdown and the far-right has been anti-lockdowns (the center-right is usually pro-lockdowns as well, but not as much as the center-left).

If it were stochastic there would be many exceptions.
In general, it's helpful to look at the rest of the world to understand the US, since it highlights what's unique about the US and what's just a manifestation of broader trends and general equilibria.
I think the dynamic at play here is:
"trust in expert + value human life -> pro-lockdown"
"anti-intellectualism and anti-expertise + value 'individual freedom' over human life -> anti-lockdown"
Read 4 tweets

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