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Original Braila

6 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read

$NMCI has 29 ships. By Jan 2021 my calculation is that 17 of those have reset on average 10k usd higher on 12m contracts.10k x350daysx17=60 musd in increased profits=current MCAP.
My highest possible conviction play coming 6 months at 1.79 usd per share. Feb-May another 6 ships

Rates for 4250TEU Panamaxes keep rising according to the latest info. Could the latest Harpex later today Friday break 20k? harpex.harperpetersen.com/harpexVP.do . To me $NMCI would really surprise if they did not put in at least another short term double. Charters probably re set early.

I think most investors are under the influence of having just watched the tanker spot market and they fail to take in that this is not spot. Container resets now are 12m deals. It is also very hard to see any "12m wind down of excessive storage" as we are going through in tankers

To be honest, I would guess we are more likely to go higher in rates short term & that these rates will stay multiyear.

But regardless, the Jan 2021 re sets alone will have done current MCAP. Current 1.79 shareprice if you want in pure 1y improvement. U didn't miss this one, yet

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Original Braila

@OriginalBraila

5 Sep

1. Most companies do not want to shrink out of business
2. This means old tanker Companies WILL renew fleets.
3. When you renew you buy at 100% of NAV
4. When you sell old tankers the payment is not material.
5. Means 50% NAV in old Co is not worth much. Will be diluted upwards.

The best example of this right now is Teekay Tankers $TNK imo. But it is a general rule. The fan club of $DSSI also called for divs and buybacks before that hope was crushed by management. In the DSSI case you also have too high leverage vs coming losses, debt level, fleet age.

HOWEVER, a cheap NAV valuation in an already renewed fleet is a gift. The renewal is already done and the material part of the cashflow is only likely to go to scheduled amortizations & return of cash when times are good. For the old tonnage it all goes to big amortization

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Original Braila

@OriginalBraila

24 Jul

Y-day I wrote about locked in charter averages Okeanis for the future, now I am going to write about costs per day to later compare. Three main parts for me as a simple investor: 1. OPEX 2. Interest costs 3 Amortization/Depreciation together forming all in break even AVERAGE #OET

OPEX, well we pretty much are given that here as 2019 average and Q1 2020 actually was lower (larger fleet lowering costs?) so 8200 it is for me:

@JHannisdahl

Interest costs: Well those have fallen and #OET is fully exposed to that.. As we are kind of doing a stress test of the company later comparing to the work of much appreciated @JHannisdahl assumptions it is not likely Libor would go up in a world where newbuild prices crash 15%..

Read 6 tweets

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Original Braila

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