1/x The outlook was indeed promising yesterday... As posted, we were able to monetize our long deltas & short Vega this morning at the 3508.5 level. Good thing, b/c, as highlighted midday, fives strike IVols bottomed & moved significantly higher in the back of the curve.
2/x This kind of move into a rally can serve to unpin the market, if it continues, & shows concern on the part of institutions, retail call buying exuberance, & is a sign of increasingly short dealer gamma positioning. Moreover, we had several other ST warning signs today.
3/x NDX weakness, low P/C equity reading all day, & maybe most importantly, a very poor price thrust to an approaching technical level in the 1.5 st dev up of 20 day of SPX. This weakness is particularly notable given the dealer gamma squeeze that should have helped the market
4/x squeeze higher today.... All of that said, these bearish cross currents are presenting themselves in the context of an otherwise strong backdrop. 11/9 dealer positioning is still short & Vanna flows should be supportive into Mon morning, & more potential Vanna flows w/ more
5/x election certainty soon. As mentioned, continue to look for vanna flows most from 2-3:15pm CST &1am-6am CST...Given these cross currents, we moved to the sidelines & are now neutral & watching our factors carefully. The market has come too far/too fast & greater risks are
6/x presenting themselves... Until we get a close 1.5 std dev above the 20 day, a healthy correction in price, or a correction in time where we move safely into mid next week with lower vols, the technical pic is somewhat precarious...Time is on the side of the bulls, as
7/x OpEx cycle driven vol compression & Vanna/Charm flows into 11/18th VIX expiry & improving seasonality as well as likely positive post election Pfizer Stage 3 results could be coming soon. What’s more, the Dec/Jan election hump, which expanded significantly again today,
8/8 is building up potential energy for a thrust higher, if election uncertainty can be resolved amidst significantly improving seasonality around Turkey Day, Santa Clause & the Jan effects until 1/15. Tread carefully until we have more clarity in the days to come...Good Luck!🍀
Fives= fixed
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