Those who say India could have started a war post Pak retaliation of 27 feb 19 have absolutely no clue of Indo-Pak military environment.
Even in the Pro Active Strat (PAS) application, IA requires a minimal force mobilization. It maybe in form of certain forces pre
1/6
..positioned in garb of training close to border.
Infact Balakot strike occurred a few weeks after pulwama. Till that time, only a few paramilitary troops were moved in IOK. The reserve components of Indian Defensive Corps were in their Garrisons. The Strike Corps not 2/6
mobilized. IA was weeks away from initiating even a localised offestrik even along the LOC, border is out of question.
Say hypothetically, had IA launched "an attack" after Abhinandon as alluded by some Einsteins; it could have resulted in dozens of more Abhinandons as IA 3/6
..had already lost surprise vis Balakot. Pak Army was on high alert and ready for retaliation.
This was the factual military situation on ground.
Do you think Pak Army COAS was not aware of it...?
Don't you think COAS would have been desiring that IA commit another lose move4/6
..so Pakistan could get a 2-0 lead...?

And last but not the least, do you believe the Indians could have made such an miscalculated move...?
Last time Indians executed an offensive, they planned for 6 years, arranged a Mujeeb ur Rehman and succeeded in turning 90% of .. 5/6
population against the Army 3000 miles away from its Base....
In my humble opinion, in the way of "attacking Pakistan" again, Indians are currently at the stage of searching a Mujeeb ur Rehman....
..

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More from @Fawad__Ahmed

15 Oct
Nawaz Sharif, Army and the people of Pakistan....
This is narration of actual events from an eye witness.
25 Oct 16 was a gloomy day at Qta. 62 Coffins of young police recruits were lying at Musa Stadium Qta. They were brutally killed by terrorists of TTP the... .1/n
..previous night at Police Training Academy Qta. Their deeply grieved relatives were waiting for Janaza since last 4/5 hours so that, they could take the bodies of their loved ones to their hometowns. All were waiting for PM NS who arrived from Isd in wake of that terrible...2/n
..incident and was currently in a meeting at the CM Office.
After a painfully long wait, he arrived with his entourage. Janaza was offered in next 5 min. PM Sahib, with a stiff neck and his signature scorn, walked off..without having a glance on the relatives of the shaheeds..3/n
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
Wars don't just happen. These are usually consequent to clash of eco / commercial/ social interests of belligerents.
Azerbaijan - Armenia recent War over Nagorno Karabakh (NK) is no different.
As the map shows; Azerbaijan is a hub of Gas Pipelines to EU / Turkey. This... 1/4 Image
..poses competition to Gazprom / Russian monopoly over regional energy supplies to EU. For instance, Turkey's dependence on Russian gas reduced from 54% to 34% recently on completion of Trans-Anatolian pipeline. This increasing trend of supply of Azeri / Caspian....2/4
Gas to Turkey and onwards to EU has to be curbed by Russia to retain/ sustain its own supplies, with assistance of its own Allies (that's correct, Armenia; a major base of Gazprom Ops).
So while Russia stands with Armenia; Turkey, EU, USA and Israel stand with Azerbaijan...3/4
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
On Pak India affairs; on a serious note.
A few centuries ago, a powerful Rohilla (Pathan) army was besieging a relatively weak marhatta force under shiva ji. Marhatta position was precarious and they faced a certain defeat....1/6
Young Afzal Khan, the Commander of Rohillas was an unstoppable force within himself. He was brave and smart; determined to teach marhattas a lesson in tactics of war. But shiva ji had something else in mind...."why to meet enemy where he is strong ?"....2/6
A message of peace was sent alongwith a request for meeting where marhattas will surrender. Simple soldier Afzal, accepted the offer. On the day of the meeting, out came shiva ji clad in a CLOAK hidding a dagger under it... 3/6
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
I've been part of over a dozen research projects on national security. Multiple factors contribute to our envmt. However one constant that crops up in all, is our unchecked, underdeveloped population.
I didn't say over population because having a large young population is...1/9
..an asset, it is called "demographic dividend". However, if that youth is not properly educated and groomed it could be a curse rather than a dividend.

Family planning was intro in the 60s. It appealed to the middle class and was adopted. Resultantly, the most imp faction ..2/9
..of the society started shrinking. The lower class on the other hand ballooned. This Paradox created a unique envmt. The cheap manpower socio-economic system. Unplanned and unchecked, it turned bad. A certain community started producing kids as a means of earnings
....3/n
Read 9 tweets
5 Sep
Sep 1965 Pak-Ind War - prelude in reverse chronology
- Ceasefire Sep 23 1965 - Stalemate
- Sep 6 - India attacks across Intl border on Lahore and Sialkot - both stalled due to stiff resistance
- Sep 1 - Pakistan launch Op Grandslam across CFL, reaches short of Akhnur
1/5
August 26 - India launch Op Faulad / Op Faulad across CFL - Haji Pir Pass threatened though 20 Punjab Regiment held it till end
August 5 - Pakistan launch Op Gibralter infiltrating soldiers across CFL in IOK to raise local resistance against indian army. Op was a failure, 2/5
Apr 1965 - Indians occupied unmanned positions along the border at Rann of Kachh (south of Sindh, close to Arabian Sea). Pakistan Army eliminated all the positions in swift, violent actions, comprehensively defeating the indian venture
3/5
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Paradox of Narratives.....
Nations have interests which are pursued with all available instruments of influence. In pursuance, the morality or legitimacy of ways and means is never a primary concern. Usually, the ends justify the means.
Lets take the example of GWoT.....1/5
The real / implicit / hidden interests of US were geo-strategic, ie.. to secure the central strat location of Afghanistan, in order to engage Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan in a coercive manner. Similarly, Iraq was an adventure for providing stability to petrodollars....2/5
But, could the US state this as a policy to domestic / intl audiences...?..NO...
So what was the course of action...?
Generate a narrative to legitimize the course.
So making use of 9/11...(its authenticity some other time) the narrative "Islamic Terrorism " was crafted....3/5
Read 5 tweets

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