Thread by @ChadPergram

1) User's manual to the balance of power in the Senate.

BOTH Senate contests appear headed to a runoff on January 5, 2021

The new Congress starts on January 3, 2021 at noon et.

2) Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) is fulfilling the unexpired term of the former Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) who resigned. Therefore, Loeffler remains a senator UNTIL another person “shall have qualified” for that seat.

3) The term of Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) expires at 11:59:59 am et on January 3. Therefore, Perdue will NOT be a senator, no matter what happens in his runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff.

All of the other Senate races appear to be settled.

4) Therefore, the Senate begins on January 3 with a Republican majority, 51-48. Loeffler is seated. Perdue is not. There will be a gap of at least a few days for Perdue’s current seat, regardless of who prevails in the runoff.

Then we have the question of the Senate majority.

5) Keep in mind that Republicans have done very well in runoffs over the years. Sen. Paul Coverdell (R-GA) defeated Sen. Wyche Fowler (D-GA) in a 1992 runoff.

6) Coverdell’s success in that runoff in late 1992 was viewed as the first referendum on the pending presidency of President-elect Bill Clinton. One wonders if the dual runoffs could serve as the first referendum on Biden if he's elected.

7) In 2008, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) vanquished Democrat Jim Martin in a runoff.

But neither of those races were determinative regarding the Senate majority.

8) At this stage, the Senate is likely to remain in Republican hands. BUT…if Democrats capture both seats, we have a tie.

9) It’s a misnomer that a tied Senate automatically means the party of the President claims the “majority.” The Vice President serves as President of the Senate and can vote to break ties – if he or she wants to do so.

10) Keep in mind that by rule, a tie vote fails in the Senate. So, there are occasions where a Vice President might not cast a ballot at all if the vote on a given issue goes the way the administration wants.

11) But it’s not written down anywhere that the party affiliation of the Vice President decrees which party is in charge in an equally divided Senate.

There have been Senate ties in 1881 and the 83rd Congress from 1953 to 1955.

The Senate deadlocked at 50-50 in 2000.

12) Vice President Dick Cheney would break ties in a split Senate after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of President George W. Bush. But again, nowhere is it written that Senate control magically goes to the President’s party if things are tied.

13) Former Senate Majority Leaders Trent Lott (R-MS) and Tom Daschle (D-SD) engineered a bipartisan power sharing arrangement.

14) Lott was Majority Leader at the beginning of the Congress. But Daschle had the right to call up bills. And, Republicans and Democrats had equal representation on committees.

A draw in the Senate contests isn’t out of the question this time around.

15) The atmosphere in the Senate is now toxic. It’s augmented by the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

16) As a result, it’s hard to see how Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) could forge any sort of power sharing accord if the Senate is deadlocked in 2021.