1/9

Of course regulators worry about Ant's disruptive potential. Its overwhelming success had less to do with its technological innovation and more to do with the fact that a lightly regulated entity will always outperform its highly regulated rivals.

scmp.com/business/banki…
2/9

Ma thought that his backdoor deregulation – which he called “disruption” – was a good thing, but while it might at first seem like China would benefit economically from the replacement of its neolithic banking sector with a swifter, more flexible financing and savings...
3/9

system, in fact an inefficient, financially repressed and highly controlled banking system has always been at the heart of the Chinese growth model. It is the existing banking system that is responsible for much of the past growth in excess economic activity.
4/9

Had China’s financial system been more efficient and flexible, in other words, it would have been impossible for Beijing to force the system to finance so much non-productive activity and to force households to subsidize manufacturing and investment through repressed...
5/9

interest rates. You cannot have one without the other, and as long as Beijing wants to target economic growth rates that exceed the real underlying growth in the economy, it needs a highly controlled banking system.
6/9

What's more, even if Beijing had decided to give up targeting excessively high rates of growth in economic activity (something which it clearly hasn't done), the country’s financial sector has been left with so much debt and insolvency that anything that introduces...
7/9

flexibility in financial intermediation would risk undermining the system. For all its bad debt and highly unstable balance sheets, China was never likely to have a financial crisis because regulators could always restructure the liabilities of the financial system at will.
8/9

Beijing can call again and again for more open, efficient and flexible financial markets, but we shouldn’t simply assume that there is no direct link between the country’s economic performance (including its ability to control its trade account) and the structure of its...
9/9

monetary and financial markets. In either case an overhaul of the latter must inevitably be associated with a substantial change in the former. GDP growth targets require a highly controlled and inefficient banking system.

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More from @michaelxpettis

5 Nov
1/8

Too many people focus on the Washington-Beijing circus as if it were the only show in town, but while it is true that the US-China relationship will probably deteriorate no matter who the president is, this, as I discussed in my 2013 book, is...

scmp.com/news/china/dip…
2/8

only part of the story. It has to be seen more generally within the context of the bigger "deglobalization" story, in which anti-foreign and anti-immigrant feelings, along with geopolitical tensions, are rising everywhere.
3/8

It is this bigger story that explains why the US has turned against countries in Asia and Europe that could have been allies against China, why everyone in Europe hates everyone else, and why anti-immigration policies everywhere are such vote getters.
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov
1/4

Many analysts are arguing that the surprise suspension of the Ant IPO was mainly, or at least partly, the consequence of Jack Ma’s angry speech two weeks earlier, but my understanding is that his speech was itself a response to regulatory...

ft.com/content/3d2f17…
2/4

concerns that were already being widely discussed.

If true, perhaps the IPO should've been withdrawn much earlier by Ant and its bankers, pending clarification of the new regulations. It may be that regulators were not the only ones to have handled this whole thing badly.
3/4

By the way this article explains that had the IPO occurred, Ant would have become overnight the most valuable bank in the world, which is ironic because the IPO was very pointedly organized not as a bank IPO but rather as a tech IPO.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
1/4

Given how good Chinese infrastructure is, and how much it has over-invested in infrastructure in the past 5-10 years, it might at first seem surprising that fixed-asset investment in the transport sector nonetheless grew by 9.8% year on year in...

xinhuanet.com/english/2020-1…
2/4

the first three quarters of 2020, but infrastructure spending in China is less about increasing economic efficiency and more about generating economic activity and subsidizing manufacturing. In that case the resulting increase in debt will have exceeded the...
3/4

resulting increase in the country's ability to produce goods and services.

Or to put it differently, debt will have risen faster than real debt-servicing capacity, which means that ultimately the debt must be serviced through real transfers from some sector of the economy.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
1/5

Good article, in which Gavyn Davies is right to argue that government debt limits in the US are probably pretty far off, although I disagree that government debt sustainability is increased when interest rates are below the GDP growth rate.

ft.com/content/aa63c3…
2/5

This is a systemic fallacy. Low real interest rates are just another way to service the debt through real transfers, no different than inflation or taxes.

I think the problem with much of the discussion about whether or not Washington should run larger deficits is that...
3/5

it ignores the purpose of these deficits. As long as the fiscal deficit is used to fund productive infrastructure investment, or is used to prevent a larger contraction in GDP, or funds income redistribution that incentivizes further business investment by boosting...
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
1/7

Very interesting piece on the gradual and imperfect transition (“GDP adoption in China was an experimental – and ultimately unsuccessful – process of translation”) in China from the Soviet-invented Material Product System (MPS) of accounting for...

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
2/7

the size of the economy and its rate of growth to the more widely used System of National Accounts (SNA). For the latter the GDP calculation is the main indicator of aggregate economic production, whereas for the former it is NMP (net material production).
3/7

At the heart of these methods are different ways of measuring what counts as productive activity with, among other things, NMP reporting physical output numbers rather than the value of income flows. More output, not necessarily more value, increases the size of the economy.
Read 7 tweets
29 Oct
1/7

Good article by Janan Ganesh, but while I agree that governance is what democracies are supposed to do best, I would also argue that democracies, as Churchill is supposed to have said about the US, do end up usually doing the right thing, but...

ft.com/content/92ec21…
2/7

only after having tried out the alternatives. While non-democracies often go to their graves sticking rigidly to their institutions, healthy democracies are pragmatic and flexible, trying first one thing and, when that fails, trying something else.
3/7

This adjustment process may seem uglier and more dispiriting than the steadfastness of countries that don’t adjust as quickly, but for that reason, ironically, it most undermines the credibility of democracies just as they are proving their greatest worth.
Read 7 tweets

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