It’s way too early for headlines like this. Polls are going to end up with only slightly-above-average error once all the votes are counted. The emerging pattern of routine bias is a problem, yes, but it’s not the doomsday situation people are leading you to believe.
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325097517181243393
The biggest problem with polls TBH is that people, and lots of journalists, don’t understand how much error there can be. This is a perfectly reasonable performance for the data, yet so many in the media have already prematurely called the industry dead.
The other point is re: the “who” of the error. Based on county returns so far it looks like polls actually performed just fine in the suburbs, but underestimated support for Trump among non-college whites and maybe Hispanics. Nothing about revolt against D culture looks true.
One final thing. We have no evidence of “shy” Trump voters, even now, at least in the context of them lying to pollsters. But we might have evidence of huge partisan non-response bias, which would lead to routine bias in the data and is a tough problem to solve.
More on the dumb cancel culture narrative here
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1325105026365329411
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