Maricopa only adds about 7k ballots tonight, but they're Biden+11--assuming I did this right.
Obviously that's the wrong direction for the president, though many ballots still remain.
Obviously that's the wrong direction for the president, though many ballots still remain.
As always, the key is what kind of ballots we're looking at: late mail, election day drop off, provisional, or cured ballots. I haven't seen any clear indication of what this is, and absent that it's hard to be too sure of what to make of it
Given their typical sequence, this ought to be the last of the election day dropoff. If so, that's a very bad sign for Trump.
Now Trump needs a 22 pt. lead among the remaining ~90k ballots, and some won't ultimately be valid. At this point, there's no reason to expect that kind of advantage. The only real question is whether we end up in a GA-like situation, where there's an obvious winner but no call
If the remaining votes are like tonight's votes, then this isn't GA. Not sure whether the decision desks will see it that way or not.
This is also a case where data quality is a factor. About half of the votes are provisionals; half late mail. If the state released results by type (like GA), we could have a clear picture of where we're headed. As it is, the desks don't know for sure
GA is over, barring irregularities in recanvassing or recount
https://twitter.com/uconnfan2021/status/1325577323752644609?s=20
The needle did account for provisionals in all three states
https://twitter.com/rationalebeing/status/1325588887322898433?s=20
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