(THREAD) The coronavirus has produced a highly unusual recession and is likely to give rise to an unsteady recovery, says President Christine Lagarde in her opening remarks at the #ECBForum on Central Banking ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date… 1/6
Lagarde: This unusual recession has posed exceptionally high risks and required an exceptional policy response. What has defined this response is the policy mix. Macroeconomic, supervisory and regulatory authorities have dovetailed and made each other’s efforts more powerful 2/6
Lagarde: A continued, powerful and targeted policy response is vital to protect the economy, at least until the health emergency passes and vaccination is well advanced. The right policy mix is essential 3/6
The coronavirus pandemic has lowered potential output in the euro area. Labour, capital, and total factor productivity were all affected. Read more in the #EconomicBulletin [1/4]
Estimates of potential output are uncertain and will change as the situation evolves and as the pandemic’s economic impact becomes clearer. Yet, it is already evident that potential output is likely down less than GDP – indicating a negative output gap [2/4]
Digitalisation is likely to have accelerated in many firms across different sectors in response to the pandemic. This positive development may enhance productivity growth in the medium term [3/4]
Probably the most important thing to say about the eurozone economy is that there is a high degree of uncertainty, Executive Board member Philip R. Lane tells The Wall Street Journal (1/7) ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/da…
Lane: The single biggest risk is that the pandemic is not controlled and/or it takes longer than is currently expected to find good treatments and a vaccine. That outranks any other risk by some distance (2/7)
Lane: Whether we need to add stimulus depends on incoming data. The uncertainty will diminish in the autumn because we’ll know more about the pandemic, 2021 budget plans, exchange rate developments and oil prices (3/7)
(THREAD) After the initial crisis response, banks and supervisors should now look beyond the pandemic, says Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria at the @EBFeu public dialogue on European banking beyond the pandemic 1/4
Enria: Our immediate relief and capital conservation measures have proven to be effective, with banks planning to expand their loan books. Now our supervisory strategy has moved into a new phase 2/4
Enria: Banks must brace for the deterioration of asset quality that is likely to materialise as the system-wide payment moratoria are lifted. Adequate management of risks and non-performing loans is key to avoiding costly cliff effects 3/4