Beijing's reaction to the Biden win has been pretty muted. Here's what we know so far:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
MOFA gave mostly vague answers at a daily briefing on Monday, saying that it hoped the new admin would “work in the same direction as us going forward” -- but sidestepping questions about trade, what moves China expected from Biden and Beijing’s stance on relations with the U.S.
State-run media outlets such as the China Daily have filled some of the void, as the newspaper expressed hope that relations could be “reset for the better”
[China Daily is an English-language outlet aimed at foreign audiences]
[China Daily is an English-language outlet aimed at foreign audiences]
The Global Times said Beijing should communicate with the Biden team “as thoroughly as it can” to help make relations more predictable
[The paper is run by the Party. In the past, it presented much more nationalistic views than the government, but that gap has narrowed under Xi]
[The paper is run by the Party. In the past, it presented much more nationalistic views than the government, but that gap has narrowed under Xi]
“China should not harbor any illusions that Biden’s election will ease or bring a reversal to China-U.S. relations, nor should it weaken its belief in improving bilateral ties,” the paper said in an editorial on Sunday night
FWIW, I think this is a pretty reasonable assessment
FWIW, I think this is a pretty reasonable assessment
Shi Yinhong, a scholar and govt adviser explains why:
“Biden’s stance on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea is likely to be consistent with Trump,” he said
Without a [very unlikely] about-face on a whole range of policies in Beijing, that's unlikely to change
“Biden’s stance on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea is likely to be consistent with Trump,” he said
Without a [very unlikely] about-face on a whole range of policies in Beijing, that's unlikely to change
I expect Beijing to try for some kind of reset in ties. At a minimum, it will seek to restore the formal dialogues suspended or canceled by Trump
(Partly because they ease tensions, but partly also because they help present the PRC as an equal of the US to domestic audiences)
(Partly because they ease tensions, but partly also because they help present the PRC as an equal of the US to domestic audiences)
Worth watching to see if Beijing tries any kind of "old friend" routine with Biden
On the one hand, he first visited China in 1979 and has advocated engagement for most of his career
On the other, he called Xi a "thug" in Feb and has grown more hawkish along with the rest of DC
On the one hand, he first visited China in 1979 and has advocated engagement for most of his career
On the other, he called Xi a "thug" in Feb and has grown more hawkish along with the rest of DC
Beijing will dislike Biden's efforts to reengage with allies
“Biden may try to improve relations with allies, and band together to try to suppress China,” said He Weiwen, a former trade official. “If Biden improves relations with European allies, this will be harmful for China.”
“Biden may try to improve relations with allies, and band together to try to suppress China,” said He Weiwen, a former trade official. “If Biden improves relations with European allies, this will be harmful for China.”
Most worrying of all for Beijing, those efforts are likely to be pretty successful, at least at first.
India, Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and many others have all put out statements indicating that they hope to work with partners check Beijing's assertiveness
India, Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and many others have all put out statements indicating that they hope to work with partners check Beijing's assertiveness
As China reassesses the strength of US alliances, there's a chance it will temper some of the most assertive aspects of its diplomacy
But make no mistake: it will do this in order to compete more effectively with the US rather than because it believes it can avert competition
But make no mistake: it will do this in order to compete more effectively with the US rather than because it believes it can avert competition
Xi Jinping himself has been abundantly clear on this point:
He's intensified calls for economic "self-reliance" and used the recent anniversary of the Korean war to call US military invincibility a "legend"
Not the words of a man who expects a fundamental reset in ties. ENDS
He's intensified calls for economic "self-reliance" and used the recent anniversary of the Korean war to call US military invincibility a "legend"
Not the words of a man who expects a fundamental reset in ties. ENDS
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