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9 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1. People are underestimating the size of Biden's victory for reasons mentioned in this useful thread: lots of votes left to count in blue states & also historic high turnout. Combined, it looks like a higher share of voters supported Biden than supported Reagan in 1984
2. 2020 election was double sided: a massive popular vote rejection of Trump combined with Dems' losing seats in House & falling short (so far!) in Senate. The two facts are connected: By building broad anti-Trump coalition, Biden undermined downballot Dems.
3. Biden won his landslide by making the national election a referendum against Trump, which meant courting GOP and GOP leaning voters by saying that the problem is Trump, not the GOP. This gave Never Trumpers permission to vote for Biden but also permission to split ticket.
4. One way to think about election is that both Trump & Biden worked to expand participation of Republican voters: Trump by bringing in more WWC (and, although evidence still needs confirming, Latino working class) voters & Biden by encouraging Never Trumpers to vote.
5. Biden's whole argument was Trump was problem & once he's gone Dems & GOP can go back to normal politics. Also that he, Biden, is good for this restoration because he knows how to work with GOP. Given those claims, why wouldn't center-leaning voters split ticket?
6. If you think Trump was an existential threat to American democracy, then Biden's strategy was not only successful but justified. But festering centrist gridlock will itself produce future demagogues. La lutte continue. More: thenation.com/article/politi…

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More from @HeerJeet

Jeet Heer Profile picture
6 Nov
1. As I and many others have predicted, Trump, faced with defeat, is not going to concede and will construct a myth of a stolen election and being stabbed in the back. The question is where does this take us?
2. I think the fears of a coup or constitutional crisis are overblown. The military has fairly explicitly rejected intervening (both after BLM protests and after election). The nuisance suits Trump is filing are far short of Bush v. Gore.
3. The more pressing danger than a coup is Trump delegitimizing election and nursing stabbed-in-back mythos. Especially dangerous not just for future of Trump & Trumpism but also if GOP & right-wing media buy into it (as opinion side of Fox & Lindsey Graham have)
Read 4 tweets
Jeet Heer Profile picture
2 Nov
1. Trump's endgame strategy has been pretty explicitly outlined by him & his advisors: use early and incomplete vote count to declare victory, litigate in courts, drag it out & muddy the water. In other words, if not victory then delegitimize Biden victory.
2. How to stop Trump from sabotaging the vote count? William Kristol suggest that GOP officials and former leaders like George W. Bush can help shame Trump into not doing this. The most generous to this idea is: are you fucking out of your mind?
3. We've had 4 years of the vast majority of GOP officials sticking with Trump no matter what. And George W. Bush, despite rumored private grumblings, has done not one public act to repudiate Trump by name. Relying on this group to save American democracy is absurd.
Read 5 tweets
Jeet Heer Profile picture
2 Nov
1. Since he was born 100 years ago I want to say a few words about Santos Hernandez (1920-1968), who many have reason to be grateful for, not least because he fathered and nurtured an amazing family.
2. Santos Hernandez was born in Mexico and moved to the United States in 1941, initially working on farms and packing houses, where he met his wife Aurora, who hailed from Texas.
3. Aurora and Santos had six kids: Mario, Gilbert, Richard, Lucinda, Ishmael, and Jaime. Both parents were creative -- Santos had painted when younger. The kids grew up in a household where everyone drew.
Read 8 tweets
Jeet Heer Profile picture
30 Oct
1. Trump's closing message in 2020 is definitely confused and defuse. Very different than 2016 where he closed strongly, with "Crooked Hillary" message in sync with a rhetorical populism that portrayed Trump as foe of the global elite.
2. Trump's 2016 campaign was disgusting on all sorts of levels, but simply in terms of message discipline, especially after Bannon took charge, it was very focused. The problem he has now is that his core anti-system message only works if you are challenger.
3. Since he's now the status quo, economic populism has receded from Trump's messaging. It's still there in dribs and drabs but doesn't structure his argument as it did in the heady Steve Bannon days of 2016. Trump 2020 talks more about stock market than jobs.
Read 4 tweets
Jeet Heer Profile picture
26 Oct
1. One week out and what is Trump's closing message? That the pandemic isn't really so bad and is being hyped by the media and his opponents. I don't think this is going to do it.
2. Broadly, the pandemic has been good for incumbent parties all over the world, shunting partisan disputes aside and letting them claim mantle of leadership. The USA is one big exception and it's because Trump has steadfastly refused to govern.
3. To be clear, the "covid is fake" message has real appeal to large chunks of Trump's constituency: militia types who want to kidnap their governor, Charles Koch & assorted plutocrats who want "herd immunity" strategy, cranks & contrarians, etc. But it's not a majority message
Read 4 tweets
Jeet Heer Profile picture
23 Oct
1. Thinking more on last night's debate, one big problem Trump has is that he's never clearly defined Joe Biden. Is Biden the career politician who hasn't done anything to change things for 47 years or is the AOC/Sanders puppet who will usher in a socialist revolution? Both?
2. Is Biden a racist who voted for the crime bill and labelled Black people as "super-predators" or is he the radical who will destroy the suburbs by making it easier for people of color to move there? According to Trump, Biden is both.
3. Is Biden so dementia-addled he doesn't know where he is or is the the all controlling head of an international crime family? According to Trump, Biden is both.
Read 5 tweets

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