Which Trump era policies should Biden keep on countering Chinese hostile behavior?
I spoke to good friends who served in the Trump administration as career professionals on China policy. Here is what they think:
- what Trump admin really did on China is to impose costs for its hostile actions and China did not really escalate = its possible to raise the costs for China and it will back down once it feels a hard response (in sense of though sanctions and trade restrictions)
- Trump administration cost imposition strategy had two potential outcomes: either it persuades Beijing to rein in bad behavior.
- Or if not, we highlight for the world China’s bad behavior and take steps to protect ourselves and diversify away from dangerous dependence.
- The Trump administration policy logic is: If imposing costs on China for its hostile activities doesnt “work” and China does not stop it, we need to adjust to the reality that Beijing wants to decouple itself from the free world.
- The fear among career U.S. China policy professionals is that Biden admin will go into „negotiating“ mode with PRC, which PRC will use as a policy trap = „you want our cooperation on climate, Biden team main international agenda? Then do not punish us hard“.
- The same reflexive control trap Russia used with Obama administration, saying „do not be hard on us if you want our cooperation on counter-terrorism“.
- EU doesn’t really understand that its in a power position on PRC as it is negotiating the EU-China trade deal.
- EU could use this power position to force China to really change its behavior (by freezing the negotiations), but so far it isn’t really happening.
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With Trump losing, let me spell out the Trump administration policies which Europe needs the Biden team to keep.
Change rhetorics, not most of the policies.
Let me run you though them:
1) U.S. need to keep being tough on China and Chinese hostile activities in Europe. We need to team up on this, be better allies on this global threat. Keep the pressure on Huawei and other Chinese espionage entities, keep them out of 5G networks.
2) U.S. need to be tough on Russia as long as Russia is aggressive. No Obama-era style naive reset. The Kremlin responds only to power and toughness. No appeasement ever works with dictators. Keep moving U.S. troops to Poland. Keep raising funding for U.S. European defense ops.
(THREAD) CHINA BLACKMAILS Czech Republic OVER TAIWAN:
Despite hard pressure by Beijing Czech second highest constitutional figure - Senate Speaker @Vystrcil_Milos takes a 90-person parliamentary and business delegation on August 30 – September 5 to Taiwan.
Why it matters:
On 10 January 10 2020, the Chinese Embassy in Prague sent a letter threatening the previous Senate Speaker Jaroslav Kubera - announcing retaliation against Czech companies operating in China if Kubera were to fly to Taiwan.
The letter mentions specific companies (!).
Czech Senate Speaker Jaroslav Kubera received the Chinese Embassy letter on 14 January 2020, during a meeting at Czech Presidential Office.
On 17 January 2020, Jaroslav Kubera met with the Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jianmin.
On 20 January 2020, Kubera died of a heart attack.
THREAD: RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE THREATENING LIVES OF THREE CZECH MAYORS:
On 14 March 2020, right before the borders got closed due to the pandemic, a Russian diplomat flew into Prague.
Read the full story, there are details on one FSB officer.
Here is what we know today:
As reported by Czech investigative journalist @bonicek7: He was picked up the chief of security of the Russian Embassy (= senior intelligence officer) and driven directly from the Prague airport by a Russian diplomatic car to the Russian Embassy in Prague.
This Russian „diplomat“ is in fact a FSB officer,serving at 5th Directorate (focus: Near Neighborhood,countries close to Russia).
Counterintelligence @biscz received anonymous tip saying the FSB officer will arrive,carrying two toxins: ricin & saxitoxin
Three weeks ago, a Russian intelligence operative flew to Prague. He was driven directly from the Prague airport by a Russia diplomatic car to the Russian Embassy in Prague, carrying a suitcase with „ricin“ poison,according to Czech intelligence sources, @okundra reports
Around that time, two Czech local politicians were put under permanent security protection by Czech security authorities:
1) Mayor of Prague @ZdenekHrib: managed naming a „Boris Nemtsov“ street next to the Russian Embassy
2) Mayor of Prague 6 City District Ondřej Kolář: managed moving of Soviet-era Red Army statue from a city square to a museum.
The Russian government launched aggressive intimidation campaign against the Czech Republic: