After vaccines are developed, there are still hurdles to returning to normal. (1) Vaccination compliance; if few people are vaccinated, this doesn't result in herd immunity. Some individuals also don't develop lasting immunity in response to the vaccine... vaccinestoday.eu/stories/why-do…
Let's say only a 50% of states have widespread vaccination, you'll still have to think about interstate & international travel in terms of whether you're traveling to a place where there is no herd immunity and the risks of you getting sick there even if you have been vaccinated.
There's a cute simulation of herd immunity by the Koch Institute you can toggle with here. They should make one for COVID. rocs.hu-berlin.de/D3/herd/
Also a good explanation of herd immunity and how to achieve it with COVID by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health: jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic…
Stressing that for at least the next 6 months or year, we should still be playing it safe - not returning to full normal.
Although the Pfizer early data sounds like it's good - we still don't know how long lasting the immunity induced by the vaccine is, if it's safe to give to people of every age and medical condition.
We cannot swarm back into offices, restaurants, and airplanes this winter.
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It relates to the curiosity of all of these #pangolinpapers being released on Feb 18-20, driving a mania that SARS2 came from pangolins; all 4 papers used the same 2019 dataset; there is a web of co-authorship (scroll to end of the thread cited here):
I'm saving a 🔥🐉 thread on the issues in these papers for when their corrections are issued. But key questions raised by @USRightToKnow (I'm paraphrasing):
1. Did these authors know about each other preprinting in the same 3 days (3 groups on Feb 20, 1 group on Feb 18)?
Thorough article by @GMWatch about the conflict of interest and lack of accurate information coming from EcoHealth on the topic of SARS2 origins - but you forgot to mention the karaoke parties and spelunking parties...
Please do not allow EcoHealth to visit any more bat caves. The last thing we need is SARS2 being accidentally given to bats in the wild (like the mink farms). Bats already have a great virus reservoir going on, no need to add human viruses with novel features to their inventory.
The report is dated "31 July 2020" on page 1 so this has been a work in progress for at least 3 months.
Phase I: Wuhan may not have been where the outbreak started; we need to examine the Dec 2019 cases to see if there are links to other parts of China and other countries.
Current knowledge: "the virus has been remarkable stable since it was first reported in Wuhan, with sequences well conserved in different countries, suggesting that the virus was well adapted to human transmission from the moment it was first detected."
On the SARS2 mink outbreak in Denmark: "genome sequences of human and animal strains will continue to facilitate detailed analyses by partners... WHO... are working with Danish scientists to better understand the available results" who.int/csr/don/06-nov…
However, no Danish mink SARS2 sequences are publicly available yet. (Please let me know if it becomes available!) So it's tough to tell exactly which SARS2 mutation combos to be looking at.
Regardless, ending mink farming is a good preemptive move to reduce covid outbreak risk.
One reason why the Danish PM decided on mink culling was that "this particular mink-associated variant identified in both minks and the 12 human cases has moderately decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies."
Raising concerns about vaccine efficacy against the mink SARS2.
Maybe @WHO forgot, but in 2004, the intermediate host of SARS was found within a week of diagnosing an index patient. When you know what to look for, it doesn't necessarily take years.
"When possible SARS was diagnosed in the waitress on January 2, 2004, serum, throat and rectal swabs were obtained from all 6 palm civets at the restaurant... Serum samples from employees of the restaurant were obtained on January 4." ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Yes, in the past, tracing some outbreaks could take years because people had no idea what they were looking for - which species could have been the intermediate host or the ultimate virus reservoir (bats). But China already developed extensive know-how from the SARS1 outbreak...
On the topic of controversial SARS2 mutations. I've been delaying a thread on D614G because I think people watching US elections do not have the emotional/mental bandwidth to deal with complex analyses.
But it looks like the election results won't be known for days, so...
How does the D614G variant affect public health measures, vaccines, and therapeutics?
As far as we know - there is no impact.
The paper claiming that it increases transmissibility, says: "no significant correlation found between D614G status and hospitalization status"
Furthermore, the D614G mutant has been one of the earliest variants in each country (except China and a few exceptions) since the beginning - it's not like this strain suddenly appeared later in the pandemic - covered in this thread: