Biden team won't have formal power to manage COVID until January 20
71 days
Between now and then, we may see additional 100,00 deaths from COVID
Its a horribly high number
Why do I say that? Heres the math
Right now, 1000 people dying every day
That number will rise
Thread
71 days
Between now and then, we may see additional 100,00 deaths from COVID
Its a horribly high number
Why do I say that? Heres the math
Right now, 1000 people dying every day
That number will rise
Thread
The 1,000 deaths represents infections that happened 4-5 weeks ago
So how many infections happened 4-5 weeks ago?
On October 7, we had about 45,000 cases with 5% positivity rate
Yesterday, we had 110,000 cases with 10% positive rate
These are 7-d moving averages
2/6
So how many infections happened 4-5 weeks ago?
On October 7, we had about 45,000 cases with 5% positivity rate
Yesterday, we had 110,000 cases with 10% positive rate
These are 7-d moving averages
2/6
So number of identified infections 2.5X
And % positive doubled.....meaning we are missing MANY more cases today than on Oct 7
We're missing so many cases today b/c of our wholly inadequate testing
So I suspect true number of infections at least 3-5X what it was on Oct 7
3/4
And % positive doubled.....meaning we are missing MANY more cases today than on Oct 7
We're missing so many cases today b/c of our wholly inadequate testing
So I suspect true number of infections at least 3-5X what it was on Oct 7
3/4
If we are conservative and assume infections 3X that of Oct 7
And if Oct 7 infections give us 1,000 deaths today
Simple math says that we are likely to have 3,000 deaths a day in 4 to 5 weeks (mid-December)
Will that happen?
I suspect we might do a bit better
4/6
And if Oct 7 infections give us 1,000 deaths today
Simple math says that we are likely to have 3,000 deaths a day in 4 to 5 weeks (mid-December)
Will that happen?
I suspect we might do a bit better
4/6
Why?
Continued improvements in treatment will help -- but will only make a modest difference
So we could hit the worst day of the pandemic when we lost nearly 2500 Americans
And with 71 days to inauguration, we could easily average 1500 deaths daily between now and then
5/6
Continued improvements in treatment will help -- but will only make a modest difference
So we could hit the worst day of the pandemic when we lost nearly 2500 Americans
And with 71 days to inauguration, we could easily average 1500 deaths daily between now and then
5/6
What do we do?
Tell you Congressperson to get money to states for more testing
Tell you governor to advocate masks, expand testing, limit indoor gatherings
And please be careful with get togethers
We will have safe, effective vaccines in 2021
Keep people safe until then
Fin
Tell you Congressperson to get money to states for more testing
Tell you governor to advocate masks, expand testing, limit indoor gatherings
And please be careful with get togethers
We will have safe, effective vaccines in 2021
Keep people safe until then
Fin
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