Thread by @ashishkjha

On 9/23, Indiana's @GovHolcomb lifted nearly all COVID19 restrictions

wfyi.org/news/articles/…

This struck me and other public health folks as dangerous

A month later, how's it gone?

Pretty badly. Like really badly.

Don't take my word for it.

Let's look at data!

Thread

First, let’s look at Infections over past 2 months

All numbers 7-day moving avg from @COVID19Tracking

Between August 1 and September 23, cases fluctuating between 700-900 per day

Restrictions lifted 9/23

Infections start to take off by Oct 1

By 10/19, over 1800 cases per day

Test positivity was around 9% on 9/23

Today? Around 18%

Meaning Indiana missing way more cases now than they were a month ago

So identified infections AND missed infections way up

Ah you say, but what about hospitalizations?

Isn't that what matters?

3/n

Actually, infections matter too.

But, let’s look at hospitalizations

There were about 750 people hospitalized in Indiana on 9/23.

Today, its 1350

hospitalizations bouncing around from 12 to15 per 100K during Aug/Sept.

Around October 5, it breaks free and starts climbing

OK fine, but what about deaths?

During much of September, between 8 and 11 people died daily in Indiana from COVID

Now, number has more than doubled to 24 deaths per day

Deaths bouncing around -- but really breaks out around October 8 or 10

Graph

So this strategy of open everything up is not going particularly well

Cases have more than doubled

Hospitalizations have doubled

Deaths have doubled

Obviously, we can't be sure its because of loosening of restrictions

But timing sure looks like it

6/7

The bottom line is this

Indiana's current strategy is not working

There is no backstop -- it won't magically end unless people, policymakers act

We all know what to do

Its time for our political leaders to do it

Fin