dave karpf Profile picture
10 Nov, 10 tweets, 2 min read
A key dynamic over the next few weeks is the absence of any meaningful leadership or strategic direction within the Republican Party.

You have Trump - a tinfoil-hat autocrat at the top.
You have lickspittle cronies currying favor by promoting the latest harebrained scheme. (1)
And then you have a sea of elected officials, each deciding on their own what statement or action is most likely to improve their standing.

(In other words, what will get them on Hannity and juice their fundraising numbers?)

(2/x)
There’s no one positioned to say “here’s what’s best for the country,” or even “here’s what’s best for the party.”

The result is the race-to-the-bottom we’re currently watching.

(3/x)
OF COURSE Cruz and Harley and Graham are giving oxygen to the dumbest conspiracy theories!

That gets them on the teevee.

Standing up for American institutions doesn’t pay. In the modern Republican Party, it gets you primaried.

(4/x)
This phenomenon predates Trump.

This phenomenon is why the Republican Party leadership was unable to prevent trump from winning their primary.

It’s why they were unable to check his abuses of power while in office.
(5/x)
If you’re looking to understand what “the party” gains from refusing to accept the election result, you’re starting from a mistaken premise.

The Party doesn’t have the strategic capacity to think things through.

Instead, we have each individual official out for himself.
(6/x)
Hawley and Cotton and Cruz and the rest of them think they can gain adoring extremist fans by undermining electoral democracy.

They don’t think beyond that. They don’t think they need to.

This is the driving force that has made America ungovernable.
(7/x)
The Republican Party is unable to make hard decisions. It’s unable to put country over Party, or even to put party over personal gain.

Our system of government assumes better leaders than this. It breaks down when one party is filled with fame-hungry egomaniacs.
(8/x)
I don’t know how to fix the Republican Party.

I don’t know how they come back from the hole they’ve dug.

But American institutions will keep falling apart until we have two parties that treat the work of governance seriously.
(9/x)
That’s not hawley or Cruz or Graham.

They’re in it for themselves. And no one can convince them to behave like adults.

It’s a travesty, but an utterly predictable travesty.
(Fin)

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More from @davekarpf

8 Nov
Okay, I’ve got a couple of election-aftermath takes I want to share.

Each of these ought to be a column, but 👏parenting 👏 in 👏a👏pandemic👏is👏exhausting.

(1/who knows?)
First, I know everyone is mad at Nate Silver and the pollsters. I agree that we’ve probably gotten a little too into modeling and polling aggregation.

BUT!

The rise of Nate Silver was a response to endless utter-vacuous-bullshit punditry.
(2/x)
There is a news hole to be filled. In the epic-long campaign, there’s demand for some expert commentary on where things stand. Sites like 538 aren’t perfect, but they’re so much better than the alternative.
(3/x)
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
Okay, so everyone is dunking on this take. And I’m gonna dunk on it too. But from a sliiiiiightly different angle.

I think the Biden/Harris non-answer is basically fine. It’s also identical to the answer Leonhardt suggests they give instead.

(Short thread)
Trump and Republicans desperately want to make this election about something other than COVID.

(Self-plug: I wrote about this for @wired last week) wired.com/story/the-elec…

The reason they keep asking “is he gonna pack the court” is because they see a potential reframe.
When Biden says “I’m not going to answer the question because they’re just trying to change the subject” he is 100% correct.

Any answer will get stripped of context and nuance and played on a loop. That’s the whole purpose of pursuing an answer.
Read 9 tweets
28 Sep
I’m actually optimistic that this Trump taxes NYT story will *matter*, even in this #lolnothingmatters moment in history.

That’s not because some crucial subset of voters will read this and change their minds.

It’s because of how Trump will react.
(1/x)
Trump is already an undisciplined campaigner. Even on an average day, he is routinely his own worst enemy.

The thing he is best at is maintaining constant attention and repeatedly creating new distractions.

It’s a reality TV gimmick. It’s his one superpower.
(2/x)
When Trump flails—when he’s really wounded—he loses that superpower.

Instead of creating another news cycle that leaves us forgetting the previous one, he just intensifies and extends the one he’s stuck in.

He is not a man who is capable of strategically staying quiet.
(3/x)
Read 10 tweets
14 Sep
There’s a tension in election coverage that is going to become increasingly jarring in the weeks ahead.

We’re going to read stories about business-as-usual campaigning, alongside stories of structural voter disenfranchisement.

The two storylines don’t easily coexist. (Thread)
Here’s a business-as-usual example:

Florida is an important battleground state. Polls show a close race. Whose message is resonating/what strategic choices are the campaigns making/who will win?

It’s a genre of reporting that we’re all used to — horse race reporting.
But then there’s this alternate storyline:

The courts have just effectively barred 770,000 Florida citizens from voting. This is part of a multi-year disenfranchisement effort that FL Republicans launched after FL voted to restore voting rights for ex-felons.
Read 11 tweets
28 Aug
Here's what I think will matter from tonight's speech/this convention:

The premise of the RNC is that everything was going great, COVID has been a blip, but we're totally past it and back to fine now.

That's comforting to an audience that wants to believe it. But it's fleeting.
It's nine and a half weeks until the election. That's a really long time. Particularly now, when every week brings another disruptive horror.

Nine and a half weeks ago was June 16th. What news do you recall from June 16th? What has stuck with you that long?
Reality is the unavoidable problem for the Trump campaign.

They just spent four weeks utterly ignoring reality. I'm sure that felt nice for the supporters who tuned in -- it sure felt infuriating to us critics!

But, tomorrow, reality will start setting in again.
Read 7 tweets
25 Aug
My real takeaway from RNC night one is how much the program felt like a fan-service episode of a long-running tv show.

If you aren’t tuning into FNC every night, you don’t know who the McCloskys are, or what “cancel culture” is all about.
(1/2)
There was a moment in DJT jr’s speech where he mentioned Biden “supported TPP. Goodbye manufacturing jobs!”

Dude... normal people don’t know what that acronym stands for. The ones who do are already firmly for or against you.
(2/3)
And please don’t reply with “but... base mobilization!”

A political base-mobilizing message should resonate wider than a fan base-mobilizing message.

It has to. The Fox News audience isn’t large enough to win an election.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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