I think this is right. A lot of tax provisions in TCJA and CARES that Republicans care about are set to expire soon. This is likely to be a key driver of agreements on economic legislation in a divided government.
https://twitter.com/kpomerleau/status/1326209329100361730
And here Kyle has a useful table of what expires when.
https://twitter.com/kpomerleau/status/1324035870979166210
The key stuff that will come up in the short term is on business taxation: businesses will start to get less favorable tax treatment for capital investments, and GOP will want to improve that. This is business tax relief about which Dems are relatively comfortable, too.
(Dems' view is usually that corporate tax rate cuts are mostly just windfalls to owners of capital while tax benefits targeted at businesses that make capital investments at least encourage businesses to do things and grow. But the corporate tax rate cuts in TCJA are permanent.)
In the longer run, in 2025, there will be a reckoning over the expiration of most of the individual income tax changes in TCJA, including lower rates, higher standard deduction, and limits on itemized deductions. The stupid pass-through business benefit will expire then too.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
