Mangy Jay Profile picture
10 Nov, 9 tweets, 2 min read
It's not happening, but this kind of rhetoric is historically dangerous all the same.
No, there's not going to be a coup. The GOP is publicly playing along because they know it's in their best interests to 1. not piss off Trump and 2. sow doubts about the results of the election.
Just look at Trump's legal team. The GOP has fantastic (if evil) lawyers and none of them are flocking to support his fruitless cause of contesting multiple state results.
If the GOP thought the actual cause of seizure of power were in their best interests, they'd be milking the Federalist society for all it's worth. Are they doing this? No. Because they know it ain't gonna work.
Now, what *is* in the GOP's interest? Playing the long game by giving up on Trump in private while appeasing him & his supporters in public.

It's also in their interest to make the election results look weaker than they are.
The GOP is trying to knee-cap Biden's mandate before he assumes office by making him look like a weak winner. That's their short-term goal. In addition to placating Trump so they do not alienate their thoroughly radicalized & cultish base.
Now might be a time to be grateful for decentralized elections.
Also, every one of these hacks in the Trump administration knows their future lies in rightwing media. You know what you do if you want a future in rightwing media? Make Trump happy by humoring his delusions.
Now, once again, I do think this is dangerous behavior. I think it's eroding norms that were already fragile. I'm not saying it's innocuous. It's actually deeply dangerous.

But a coup is still not happening.

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More from @magi_jay

9 Nov
race X gender, per CES (which is more reliable than exit polls), presented as % Biden; % Trump

Asian men: 64/28
Asian women: 66/27
Black men: 81/14
Black women: 89/5
Hispanic men: 53/41
Hispanic women: 64/30
WhiteMen: 42/52
WhiteWomen: 48/46

bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/CES2020/ Image
One thing that struck me about these data is that virtually every group appears to have a within-group gender gap, except for Asian voters.
All the standard caveats apply:
-Although these data are better than a typical exit, no data set is perfect. We'll need more data before being "mostly sure"
-This is esp. true for subgroup data, esp. for minority groups, etc
-There are issues w/ groups like "Hispanic" & "Asian"
Read 11 tweets
8 Nov
I don't understand the impetus to argue that the electorate is right where you, as an individual, are on the political spectrum. Accurately acknowledging where the electorate is doesn't invalidate the worthiness of your ideas.
It seems to me that if you really care about advancing the ideas themselves, it makes sense to correctly identify features of the subparts of the electorate that make them more/less amenable to what you are proposing & to then figure out how to best convince them.
For example, arguing that the specifics of Sanders' M4A are vastly popular when there is little evidence to support that doesn't advance M4A. But saying "it's not popular" doesn't mean it's a bad idea, either. Your ideas can be unpopular & still be good.
Read 5 tweets
8 Nov
I think election post-mortems are fine, but I also think we have two Senate races in GA to win, so there's probably a balance to strike somewhere.
I also think that if you're progressive, the best possible thing you could do right now to enact progressive change is to figure out some way to help out in GA. Because, if we win those seats, we will have the chance for more change in the next 2 years than if we lose them.
I also think that if someone who is more intimate w/ GA politics than you are says, "This is what will win GA," you should probably listen to them, even if that same message doesn't thrill you, personally.
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
One irritating thing about current political dynamics is that if Joe Biden says something relatively progressive (transition from oil) he gets predictably slammed by conservatives while simultaneously receiving no credit from progressives.
Here is an idea: if you want to influence someone while simultaneously decreasing the influence of more nefarious forces, you should actually give them credit when they do something that you like. Otherwise you lose all leverage within the accountability structure.
Now, luckily, Biden seems like a person who wants to do the right thing for the sake of doing the right thing. We may not always agree on what the right thing is, but that's his motivation. However, there's still no reason to perpetuate a *disincentivizing* atmosphere.
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
Since Donald Trump felt the need to say Nancy Pelosi was "dancing in the streets of Chinatown" last night, I think it's as good a time as ever to point out that SF Chinatown has had remarkably low COVID numbers, compared to similarly dense areas.

sfgate.com/news/editorspi…
SF Chinatown is not just dense in terms of population, but super dense in terms of housing. Multiple people occupy very small spaces, often using bunkbeds. Yet, they controlled COVID early on due to numerous factors.
Of course it's complexly determined, but some of the salient factors are:
-Familial/learned experience w/ Sars-CV1
-Sense of communal responsibility
-*Early* (in Feb) adoption of universal mask wearing, hardcore hand-washing, etc.
Read 6 tweets
23 Oct
19 women who were detained allege that a doctor performed unnecessary medical procedures, including the removal of reproductive organs. There is at least one allegation of a non-indicated transvaginal ultrasound. Medical experts found no evidence of informed consent
There are also cases in which women allege they were retaliated against through the use of involuntary psychiatric evaluation. The "vast majority" of the alleged victims are Black and/or Latino.
To be clear, it would appear from the report that these allegations are strongly supported by available medical evidence. A review was performed of the women's records, in which medical experts found no justification for the procedures. ICE has withheld other evidence.
Read 4 tweets

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