Thread by @BauerJournalism

Dr. Allison Arwady, head of the Chicago Department of Public Health, will have a news conference at 1 p.m. to give an update on Chicago's coronavirus outbreak.

It's not good.

I'll live tweet. Follow for updates and let me know if you have questions.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/10/79-…

BREAKING: If You Leave Chicago, Get Ready To Quarantine: Travel Order Now Covers Nearly All States

The city revised its Emergency Travel Order, but officials still say people shouldn't travel outside Chicago as coronavirus surges across the nation.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/10/if-…

You can watch here: pscp.tv/w/1rmxPzLrpVYGN

Arwady: "As of today, Chicago's travel order includes 43 states and Puerto Rico. But we are introducing a new, tiered risk level."

Red is where the outbreak is worse; orange is where outbreak is bad but better than Chicago's yellow is where outbreak is more in control.

Arwady: "At this point, states that are red, the advisory is to avoid travel." If you're coming from a red state to Chicago, you must quarantine for 14 days.

...

Orange: Advised not to travel. If you do travel from an orange state to Chicago, you must get a pre-arrival negative test result or must quarantine for 14 days.

Yellow: Even those, we are recommending avoiding non-essential travel. "You, as a Chicago resident, are also at high risk of bringing COVID to these states."

Arwady: "We are also changing the updates to this travel order. We will be updating this list for the next time next week and then every two weeks thereafter. We're updating it next week and then going on a two-week cadence so that we do not have an update during Thanksgiving ...

"or during Christmas, when folks may possibly be traveling even though the recommendation is not to."

Arwady: Our average number of new Chicago cases per day is at 1,686 new diagnosed cases. Our test positivity is at 13% citywide. Our average number of deaths per day is at 7.

"None of these numbers may sound that concerning on the surface, but let's go back just one month. ...

"One month ago, in Chicago, we were adding 426 new cases per day. We were really concerned because we had just crossed that 400-case threshold that does mark a significant jump in terms of risk. One month later, we're at more than times that and growing.

...

"One month ago, we had just hit a 5% positivity. That, again, is a marker for where we want to be. We don't want to be over 5%. One month later, we're up, again, 2.5, almost 3 times that positivity.

...

"And one month ago, we were averaging 3 deaths per day. Today, we're averaging 7 deaths per day. And that may not sound like that much, but seeing an increase like this ...

"— I'll remind you, 7 deaths a day, that's 50 deaths a week; that's hundreds of deaths over the next few months.

"And, again, nothing has slowed down yet."

Arwady: Every race/ethnic and age group now seeing significant rise. People in 40s now leading the pack in terms of disproportionate cases. But people in 20s, 30s, right behind them.

Arwady: "Particularly in those who are older and have underlying conditions, we know that, that turns into hospitalizations and, unfortunately, can turn into deaths. And we are seeing these growths across every ZIP code in Chicago. ...

"Compared to one month ago, we have almost 3 times as many people in Chicago hospitals not in the ICU with COVID-19." Almost 3 times as many people in ICU with COVID-19 and 3 times as many people on ventilators."

Arwady: "There are between 100,000-145,000 Chicagoans with active, infectious COVID right now."

"That means, still, gatherings continue to pose significant health risks, even small gatherings."

Arwady: 10 randomly selected Chicagoans gathered together, there is a 1 in 3 chance that someone in a group of 10 has COVID-19 right now.

When 50 random Chicagoans gather, there is a 9 in 10 chance someone in the group has COVID-19 right now.

Arwady: "I'll tell you, when I am out in Chicago, I don't see people taking this as seriously as we did back in April, back in May. The last thing we want to do is continue putting things in place that would have even more significant economic impacts for Chicago."

Arwady: "It's not rocket science about what needs to be done. It's about individual decision-making. Now is not the time to be traveling. Now is not the time to be gathering. It is not the time to have people into your home who do not already live there. And it is the time to ...

"put COVID first. Imagine that you yourself have COVID right now. And if you have COVID, that means you need to be wearing your mask whenever you're going out from your home. You need to be social distancing. You need to be hand washing. You need to be staying home if you are ...

"having even mild symptoms. And you need to be looking out for your family, your neighbors and all of Chicago. I know we're tired of COIVD, but COVID is going to continue to grow if we can't change our behavior."

Arwady: "I think, first, we've seen that many, many people who have COVID recover from COVID. And that's good. But when we're talking about tens of thousands of people being infected with COVID, we know that there are people who become seriously ill. We're still learning about...

"longterm effects from COVID. And we're still continuing to see deaths from COVID. I'm also concerned about the hospitals because flu season hasn't really started yet." It typically kicks in Dec-Feb. "And if we start to fill up our hospitals with COVID, we actually ran out of ...

"the space to care for people with flu, to care for people with heart attacks, to care for people with all of the other reasons we need to hospitalize."

Arwady: "I think we've had a lot of mixed messaging at different levels about how seriously we should take COVID. I think, unfortunately, some of this has been politicized" — like masking. "We have states right around us that have decided that COVID is over."

Arwady: "The problem is that when we're seeing increases like this, we start to see those increases not just in young people, not just in people who are having a mild illness and getting over it. We are starting to see real increases in the really serious outcomes. And I think...

"people are also excited to be hearing good news about vaccine. ... But vaccine is not November. Vaccine is not December. Vaccine is not January in terms of any significant amount of vaccine available. And November, December and January are what I'm the most worried about ...

"here in Chicago."

Arwady: "We don't know how far this is gonna go. I think there was a lot more fear around COVID in April or May. We also had seen" hospitals completely overwhelmed. "And we've done a lot of work and a lot of preparation, but one other thing that is different is that, to date ...

"here, in the U.S., we've seen a much more regional surge of COVID. If you think about our first surge here in Chicago, it was bad, but it wasn't anything compared to what they saw in New York. And there were health care workers from around the country who went to the East...

"Coast to help." The South/West saw big surges in the summer and health care workers flew in to help. "When the whole country is breaking records for COVID, which is what is happening every single day, I'm less concerned about ventilators — we have lots of those now. I'm ...

"concerned but not as concerned about beds. But I'm very concerned about staffing. ... There is less room for error here in terms of not taking this seriously. And I think people are just tired, frankly."

Arwady asked about flu shots: "I've talked to that alderman and all of our aldermen multiple times about the city's testing strategy, and every single week the city of Chicago looks at our data and we see which ZIP codes, and ...

blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/13/fre…

"even which census tracts within ZIP codes, are having the most COVID in terms of new cases, in terms of positivity. And every single week, we push our testing resources to those areas. We've had 159 testing locations to date. Every one of them has been in a location that is ...

"surging, led off by the Southwest Side. The city of Chicago does not normally do any testing. This is typically all done within the clinical setting. But we did not want to stand by and watch the potential for inequities in testing that we knew were possible. So the city, ...

"CDPH, is funding a huge percentage of tests especially on the Southwest Side. If the alderman has questions, I would encourage him to reach out to me, and if the public wants to know more about this, please go to the site ... . We need more testing across the city, but I am ...

"very proud of the way that we have distributed testing and will continue distributing testing in the areas where it is most needed."

Arwady: "Certainly, there is the ability to have some flexing up of ICU spaces within hospitals, which is what we saw some of in the spring. We really don't want to see that, ideally, because it takes away the ability to do other things ... . There are plans in place if we go ...

"to a place where we needed to have some overflow what that could potentially look like. We're not there at this point yet, but certainly following with concern the current numbers as well as modeling ... ."

Arwady: "We've seen a basically tripling of patients in the hospital, the ICU and on ventilators. We still, though, in terms of number of patients in Chicago hospitals are not at the number that we had seen in the spring. Which doesn't mean we may not get there soon. But we ...

"are testing many more people than we were. ... We're not yet from a hospitalization or ICU standpoint quite where we were in the spring, but with the numbers increasing the way they are we're really concerned." Especially because winter is a busier time for hospitals.

Arwady: We're meeting with all federally qualified health centers to ask how they can support them to stand up additional testing. How can they connect providers to larger testing networks in hospitals? And they're winterizing testing.

Arwady: "We look at the actual tests and see, 'Was this a successful testing strategy?'" In terms of demographics, what %age was symptomatic, etc.

Arwady: "I think that the nimbleness is good. I think that the quantity, clearly, needs to continue to grow. And that's simple because of the percent positivity we're seeing." You drive percent positivity down by controlling your outbreak and expanding testing.

Arwady: "We have recently received, for example, these rapid antigen tests ... . We've just deployed those out to our federally qualified health centers, for example; we're working" to get them to other sites. "We're breaking records really every day for testing here in ...

"Chicago, and I would expect that given what our outbreak looks like," but they're still trying to grow it.

She hopes with the election results there will be "a real, quick move to provide additional funding for COVID response. Because we have not yet received at this point ...

"any funding for vaccine research, any funding for vaccine distribution. We need significant more funding to grow testing."

Arwady: Early on related to testing, we had a lot of problems related to materials — we didn't have tubes, transport media, etc. "At this point, it's not as much about those supplies as making sure we're building the capacity with staffing, with connections and making it easy ...

"for people who need tests in our somewhat-fragment health system" to know how to get those tests.

Arwady on filming in Chicago: There can be exemptions for the travel order, "particularly where there are specific testing and sort of other control regimens that are in place. ... And that's been one of the industries that we worked with directly" to ensure they complied.

Arwady: "I read a study out of the UK that was asking, it asked people ... how much did they know about COVID, how much resources did they have, how worried were they about the future, how isolated were they, how depressed — you name it. And they asked them about how much they...

"were following the guidelines: Were they wearing masks? Were they social distancing? And the only thing that predicted whether individuals self-reported that they were following the things that helped protect everybody was whether they trusted the government, whether ...

"they trusted these government guidelines to help protect them, their families. And I think that I've been very frustrated by the way something as easy as wearing a mask has taken on a political overtone in this country. And I feel very heavy on myself, and I know Dr. Ezike ...

"does too, that in some ways, whether people make the decision that is the best for them, that is the best for their family, comes down to whether they think we're up here saying this for fun or we're up here saying this because we care about them and about the future of ...

"Chicago. And so, for me, I'm not frustrated as much as sort of flummoxed. Why, why are people still not willing to do the things that are absolutely in their own best interest, in their family's best interest and in Chicago's best interest? And I think there's just been a ...

"lot of misinformation out there. There are still people who think masks don't matter. They do. Having a mask on drops your risk 85%. ... And my hope is that people will make small sacrifices — I don't even think of them as sacrifices, but small changes in their own lives that...

"are what get us through this. But I don't have all the answers, certainly, in terms of how to convince people to change their behaviors. ... But in this particular setting, it's got a very immediate need that has the potential to cause major longterm health and economic ...

"impacts. If people have ideas, I've been really clear: Let us know. Post on Facebook. Share ideas. ... But at the end of the day, it's about, What decision am I making?"

Arwady, who rarely comments directly on Trump: "I would love to see President Trump get serious about the science of COVID. I would love to see him — is it too much to imagine pulling together members of his current task force and the incoming task force? I would love to see ...

"him be able to celebrate the vaccine that his administration played a major role in getting us this far in terms of funding it. And in celebrating that we are coming closer to a vaccine, let's frame this around how do we stay as safe as we can on the way to getting there. I ...

"really think there's the possibility here. He has another 2 months in office. These are, in a lot of ways, going to be the most difficult two months ... from COVID. Given the weather, given the way things are heading, before we start to see vaccine. I hope he would speak the ...

"truth about what helps protect people against COVID."

Press conference over. Stories:

• blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/10/if-…

• blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/10/79-…