Thread by @BauerJournalism

Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Chicago health chief Dr. Allison Arwady will have a coronavirus update at 12:45 p.m.

I'll live tweet. Follow for updates and let me know if you have questions.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/12/127…

This press conference has been moved to 1 p.m.

You can watch here: pscp.tv/w/1ZkKzeMXoLwxv

Lightfoot: "Folks, we're here with some very sobering news. For weeks now, we've been sounding the alarm on the record number of daily COVID-19 cases across our city."

Lightfoot: "The rapid rise we've been experiencing here in Chicago is being felt across our state, across our region and across the nation."

Lightfoot: One month ago, our daily average of cases had ballooned to 500 per day. That was up from ~mid-200s in early October. "Based upon our latest data, we're now seeing an average of no less than 1,900 cases every day."

Lightfoot: Our positivity rate has almost tripled to 14.1 percent. In some areas, it's at 25% or higher.

Lightfoot: "However, as I said back then, just a few short weeks ago, if we didn't see a dramatic turnaround and soon, we would not hesitate to take further action to keep our residents safe and health. And it's that pledge and commitment that brings us here today. Due to the ...

"alarming and ongoing surge in COVID-19 cases, the city of Chicago's launching our Protect Chicago strategy. ...

"If we continue on the path we're on, and you and me and others don't step up and do more, our estimates are that we could see 1,000 more Chicagoans die from this virus by the end of the year."

Lightfoot: "None of us can keep maintaining the status quo in the face of this very stark reality," Lightfoot said. "Everyone — me, you, everyone — must step up and we must do more."

Lightfoot: "We are a long way from where we need to be."

BREAKING

Lightfoot: A stay at home advisory begins 6 a.m. Monday for Chicago.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/12/chi…

Lightfoot: This advisory also goes to houses of worship, which must limit the number of guests at essential events like weddings and funerals.

Lightfoot: Employers should allow workers to stay home/work from home and shouldn't retaliate against them.

Lightfoot: "WE can have no tolerance for that in the city of Chicago. Too many of our low-wage employees are going in because they're afraid that their jobs won't be protected."

Lightfoot: If you feel like your employer isn't respecting your health decisions, call the city at 311 "and we will jump all over it."

Lightfoot: "We will not hesitate to act if we have credible evidence that you're retaliating against your workers simply because they are staying at home because they are sick."

Lightfoot: Bars and restaurants remain closed for indoor dining. Curfew for non-essential businesses remains at 11 p.m.-6 a.m.

You can't have more than 6 non-household people inside a private home.

Lightfoot: "Retailers, let me remind you, COVID-19 still exists."

Lightfoot: "People are dying. ... This is literally a matter of life and death. And if we see you violating these rules in any way, we're not gonna hesitate to take action. Not through warnings. The time for that is over. We're gonna fine and, if necessary, shut businesses down."

Lightfoot: "We all have to step up and do our part."

Lightfoot: "I know that many people are tired and exhausted. The fatigue is real." Some are angry because our lives have been upended. "And even as we put these restrictions in place, I know that our success is fundamentally rested on our ability to work together to find ...

"solutions to educate people into compliance. That's a key part of our new program of Protect Chicago."

Lightfoot: CDPH will employ up to 2,000 city workers — including up to 500 tracers — to reach out to at least half of the city's households. Tracers will support phone banking, peer-to-peer text campaign, door knocking, etc. 1,100 Safe Passage workers will distribute door ...

hangers in multiple language and fliers.

"We will also be providing community-based organizations with specialized support and training to strengthen their ongoing efforts and to deploy trusted neighbors to knock on the doors and distribute information."

Lightfoot: There are ZIP codes where "we're seeing extraordinarily high numbers of infection rates, extraordinarily high numbers of percent positivity, and we've got to do more to reach our neighbors."

Lightfoot: "This hyperlocal focus, grassroots, door-to-door is gonna be indispensable as part of our ongoing efforts to protect each other during this difficult time. If we can make breakthroughs in the communities that need us most, that is gonna go a long way in helping us ...

"overall bend hte curve. We have to build trust."

Lightfoot: All Chicagoans can expect to see this campaign in billboards, social media and more "to raise awareness across our communities. I want to encourage every Chicagoan to sign up to be part of this campaign, Protect Chicago ... ." Go to Chicago.gov/Protect.

Lightfoot: These next few weeks are "crucial" in determining how we start 2021.

Lightfot: "We have to step up and lead, and we need you, every one of you, to be part of this journey with us. All of our lives are interconnected in ways we never realized before this pandemic. And because of that interconnectivity, we all must step up and do our part."

Arwady: "I am more worried about COVID right now than I have been at any point since March."

Arwady: "In March, I was worried because we" perhaps didn't have enough ventilators. "But in March, I knew that we were taking this seriously as a city. And we were doing that largely out of fear. At this point, we all know somebody who's had COVID. And, in fact, in Chicago, ...

"given what our numbers look like, a lot of us know someone who's had COVID just in the last few weeks."

Most recover, but when you are talking about the numbers we're seeing now, "those numbers start to impact people who are older, who have underlying conditions. We start ...

"seeing, and are seeing, rises in hospitalizations, ICUs, ventilators and deaths. We've seen no sign of slowing here. And we're in uncharted territory. We are the largest city in the part of the country that is having the most uncontrolled outbreak. Every opportunity that ...

"COVID has to spread here is an exponential opportunity. It takes very little time for these numbers to get to a point where we do again start to overwhelm hospitals, where we do again start to talk about deaths in ways that I hope to never have to talk about. And, yes, a ...

"vaccine is coming, the news on that is good. But a vaccine is not the next few months. And the next few months, winter, the flu and COVID fatigue have the potential to truly create a catastrophe that could be avoided here."

Arwady: Our doubling time remains 12 days. Right now, we get about 2,000 new cases every day. By Thanksgiving, we could have 4,000 new cases every day. "We're not set up for this level of outbreak. And if you look at that curve, there's been no sign yet of it slowing down."

Arwady: The concern is the test positivity rate has about tripled over the past month. If new cases were all related to testing, the test positivity would've gone DOWN.

It going up means we're not even keeping up with the testing we need to be doing.

Arwady: "We are not set up for a 12-day doubling rate in a city of 2.7 million people to handle COVID."

Arwady: "In the last month, three times as many people with COVID-19 in Chicago hospitals as just one month ago. 873 people, right now, not in the ICU but in a Chicago hospital, compared to just 291 a month ago. And, again, no sign of that slowing down."

Arwady: Three times as many people in the ICU: 247. Compared to 92 a month ago. "No sign of it slowing down."

Three times as many people on ventilators.

Arwady: And three times as many COVID deaths among Chicago residents as we were seeing one month ago.

Arwady: "The way we see COVID work, the surge in cases comes first. Then, a few weeks later, the surge in hospitalizations. Then ICU, ventilator — and then death."

Arwady: "Depending on the model that we look at, sometimes it's even higher than that. Some of these models are projecting as much as 1,800 deaths" by the end of 2020.

We'd still have another 400 COVID deaths in Chicago int he next 49 days even if we stopped the outbreak -now-.

Arwady: "The things that we've put forward toward are largely things that are about you making a decision in your life, right? They're about saying, 'I'm not gonna have people over. I'm not gonna do things that aren't essential.' Not forever, but not while we're seeing ...

"numbers like this."

Rosa Escareno, businesses chief for Chicago: "... If we all don't change our behavior and change it right now, hundreds of Chicagoans are going to die by the end of the year."