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Josh Greenberg Profile picture
@1JoshGreenberg
Nov 10, 2020 • 47 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
THREAD

UNDERSTANDING TRUMP’S COUP STRATEGY

Although everything currently unfolding has been predicted far in advance, denialism continues to flourish. Many people are drawing incorrect conclusions with regard to Trump’s strategies and discounting the crisis before us.

1/
But now, more than ever, we need a clearsighted approach to defeat Trump.

This thread is meant to clear up key questions and to highlight crucial strategic considerations at play.

2/
Let’s first be clear about the two distinct but interrelated problems facing our country: (1) a potentially successful coup by Trump and (2) the risk of civil conflict. I will address each of these issues in turn.

3/
Fundamentally, we knew in advance that we could never rely on the election alone to resolve our nation’s crisis.

Now that we are faced with Trump’s coup, we must understand his motives and tactics so that we can execute an effective response.

4/
In short, Trump’s approach to the coup operates in two separate but synergistic realms: the legal sphere and the public sphere.

His primary goals are to delay, to destroy, and to sow doubt. He is NOT necessarily playing to win in court.

5/
Therefore, those writing off Trump—exclaiming with great confidence that his legal arguments will flop—are missing the boat.

6/
In fact, by assuming that Trump will be bound by the normal rules of judicial procedures and evidentiary standards, many analysts continue to make the fatal mistake of treating Trump from a paradigm of rationality.

7/
This faulty assumption sets us up for danger—for Trump is operating in an entirely different universe.

The failure to recognize this fact, and to pursue comprehensive strategy in response to his universe, has helped lead to our predicament today.

8/
Notably, one of Trump’s fundamental goals has always been to destroy. He seeks to destroy our governing institutions, including our electoral processes, so that they no longer credibly vest power in our leaders.

9/
This point must be emphasized: Trump does not care about any of our institutions.

Those who continue to suggest that he will abide by them are only taking our country further down a delusional path.

10/
More specifically, in the legal sphere, Trump only needs to delay the process of state certification of vote counts long enough to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College.

11/
newsweek.com/how-trump-coul…
Then, the election will be booted to the House of Representatives, where Republicans control a majority of state delegations.

12/
newsweek.com/how-trump-coul…
In the public sphere—which has always been more important to Trump—he only needs to win in the eyes of his supporters. His disinformation campaign is therefore intended to further brainwash his followers.

13/
His chokehold on rightwing popular opinion will in turn help to incapacitate members of the GOP from defecting—because doing so would be political suicide.

14/
Many people have been writing off the attempted coup as a mere financial scheme or temper tantrum. The truth is that there are multiple motives and interests involved—but that is no reason to discount the fact that seizing power is absolutely a core objective.

15/
When a political party lines up behind an autocrat, an attorney general authorizes investigations of voter fraud, and a defeated leader replaces the Secretary of Defense shortly after an election, the ruler is not having a mere temper tantrum.

16/
Taken together, all of the foregoing realities mean that relying on legal strategies alone in our response to the coup is likely to be grossly insufficient in the face of Trump’s assault on our system of government.

17/
Yet, denialism has largely continued unabated, in precise accordance with prediction—even as four years have shown us that Trump is much savvier politically than many people ever expected.

18/
In the end, Trump’s coup may or may not succeed. But the debate over his prospects is not the main point—because, either way, his attempt will be horribly damaging. So rather than debate the matter, the more productive course of action is simply to resist the assault.

19/
Moreover, even if Trump’s coup fails, the more perilous prospect is that his very attempt at a coup will be the ultimate spark for civil conflict.

20/
Therefore, with each day that passes, our denialism becomes more and more dangerous.

21/
Our failure of imagination, rooted in the myth of American exceptionalism, has helped make a violent eventuality a major possibility.

22/
Based on current events, along with an abundance of evidence from the past four years, we have no objective reason to expect a peaceful transition of power from Trump.

23/
If we want any hope of escaping this crisis or mitigating its damage, we must finally come to terms with all of these realities.

We have only ONE CHANCE to get this right. It is only prudent to err on the side of caution and to be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

24/END
Many people have asked the question, “What can we do?”

For a long time, I have been posting about strategy and about constructive steps we can all take to resist the assault on humanity and on our government.

Let me encapsulate everything into FOURTEEN KEY ACTIONS here.

PS1/
This will be lengthy, but only because the approach must be multipronged.

First, I must speak the truth: we are already deep into this crisis. The deeper we get, the more intractable it becomes. However, we still have the chance to turn the tables and to mitigate damage.

PS2/
Doing so will require everyone to engage in an extraordinary effort—now.

More specifically, here is a list of critical actions to be taken.

PS3/
ACTION #1: Republicans must choose the side of history they wish to be on. They must stop this now, and they must absolutely stop this if it reaches the House. This may sound unrealistic. But we must carry out an unparalleled pressure campaign to make this happen.

PS4/
ACTION #2: The Democrats must also choose the right side of history. They need to “out” the coup and be forthright in confronting the problem. Ignoring truth will only lead to darkness. But they must also be careful not to stoke more fire.

PS5/
The Democrats must inform the American people in blunt, bleak terms. They must delegitimize Trump in the media.

PS6/
ACTION #3: The media must call the coup what it is. Dancing around it and peddling minutiae and gossip is exactly what Trump wants. Do not enable him. Provide historical context when reporting on the coup. Fight back against beliefs in American exceptionalism.

PS7/
ACTION #4: Please review my pinned tweet/thread, which organizes all of my key work in a central location. Let me highlight several critical points from this work, as follows.

PS8/

ACTION #5: Protest—now. The people are the ultimate backstop against tyranny when all other systems fail. Protest must strictly adhere to the civil resistance methods pioneered by Gandhi and King.

PS9/

We must be willing to risk our lives; all of the greatest heroes of history have been. If you are unable to protest, find another way to support the cause from behind the scenes. In addition, boycott and strike.

PS10/

ACTION #6: Call your congressperson and other local leaders. Demand reality, not delusion. Demand action, not only denunciation. Demand strategy, not improvisation.

PS11/
ACTION #7: This thread outlines solutions to longstanding deficiencies in resistance strategy, including counter-messaging, public education, and mass peaceful protest. They can and should still be pursued now.

PS12/

ACTION #8: This thread contains personal coping strategies in the face of an autocratic onslaught. Apply them to your own life.

PS13/

ACTION #9: We need to work to rebuild community and connection with those around us. I understand that this is easier said than done. It will require profound courage.

PS14/
We need to restore shared social reality. Even with all of the mutual hatred, we HAVE to reach out to the friends and family members on the other side. There is no other option.

PS15/
ACTION #10: We must defang Trump’s followers, blunting the threat of violence. Therefore, I continue to advocate a major peace effort.

PS16/

The peace effort includes everyday actions in our own lives. It also includes a Biden-initiated peace process to promote non-violence and de-escalation of conflict. Yes, extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

PS17/

Many people have trouble envisioning a path to peace. But we must be courageous. If we truly do not want war, we cannot half-heartedly pursue peace. A peace effort is not merely an idealistic endeavor; it is a strategic initiative to save lives.

PS18/

ACTION #11: We need to understand—from a social perspective—how we arrived at this crisis, if we want any hope of getting out of it. My treatise, HOW WE GOT HERE, tells that story while offering a strategic, moral vision for the future.

PS19/

The work is available entirely for free via the Medium friend links in this corresponding thread.

PS20/

ACTION #12: We must stop denying. We must acknowledge reality and confront the truth. This series of threads dissects our country’s denialist disease. The second thread in particular provides strategies to overcome denialism.

PS21/

ACTION #13: Listen to those of us who study governance, human rights, social collapse, history, and system design, and who have lived authoritarianism firsthand. We are not sounding the alarm for our own edification. We are tortured. We are desperately trying to save lives.
PS22/
ACTION #14: If anyone knows of any (high-dollar) donors who see the truth and who would be interested in supporting a major institutional approach related to these strategies, please reach out to me via DM or email.

PS23/END

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Josh Greenberg Profile picture
Mar 5, 2022
I do not support violence and militarism as solutions to social problems. But, from a strictly pragmatic view, here is the reality I see on #Ukraine.

Any ability that the world currently has to deter Russia — if it is even possible to do so — may prove short-lived.

Why?

1/
Because the U.S. is staring down its own fascist cataclysm in 2024, when the country itself may be overtaken by an autocratic, anti-NATO executive.

Inconceivable though it may seem, what may then unfold would be a plot twist where the U.S. switches sides in the #Ukraine war.

2/
Without its main benefactor in the U.S., #NATO will disintegrate, turning the current pundit narrative of "unparalleled unity" on its head.

Indeed, the faith that so many parties are currently expressing in the long-term role and stability of NATO is shamefully naïve.

3/
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Feb 12, 2022
THREAD

U.S. COLLAPSE: KEY THEMES

U.S. society is collapsing. The social fabric is being torn apart. The political system is fracturing. The country is headed toward civil conflict.

Now, more than ever, we must come to terms with the multiple factors driving this implosion.

1/
The choice for our society is stark: a collective future, or a collective death.

Thus far, our failure to address the complex dynamics underpinning the country's collapse has amounted to choosing societal suicide.

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If we ever wish to reverse course, we must adopt a different approach — which, most fundamentally, means that we must first come to more fully understand the many causes of our social collapse.

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COVID VACCINATION AND VILIFICATION

In public health, nothing is more sacrosanct to us than the trust of the populations we serve. That trust — so hard to gain, so easy to squander — underpins all of our efforts to eradicate disease.

1/
It makes the difference between well-being and illness, between life and death.

Our work is scientific. It is not political. It is not judgmental. Our only task is to stamp out disease wherever it may be.

We meet the people we serve where they are, however they come to us.

2/
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Josh Greenberg Profile picture
Dec 9, 2021
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OUR POLITICAL SECTARIANISM

Over the past fifteen years plus, nuance and depth have vanished from our social discourse, and scientific evidence and rational thought have been displaced by video clips, soundbites, and one-line blips.

This trend has proven perilous.

1/
With each day that passes, the decay of our social and political conversation — the replacement of thoughtfulness with reactivity, of civility with disrespect — poses a greater threat to the continued existence of our society.

2/
Many people know this.

But even as the threat shows no signs of receding, few show any willingness to confront the cultural decay head-on — and to address our role as active participants in the process.

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Josh Greenberg Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021
THREAD

REMEMBERING MBAYE DIAGNE

Today, as we commemorate twenty-seven years since the horrifying acts of the Rwandan genocide, and as we continue the fight to both prevent and stop atrocity around the world, I would like to recount the heroism of Mbaye Diagne.

1/17
A soldier in the Senegalese Army, Diagne served as an unarmed military observer in Rwanda between 1993 and 1994, first working under the Organization for African Unity and then under the United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda.

2/17 Picture of Mbaye Diagne.
On this day in 1994, after Prime Minister Agathe Uwilingiyimana and her husband were murdered in their home at the start of the genocide, Diagne risked his life to rescue their five children, who remained in hiding.

3/17 Prime Minister Agathe Uwilingiyimana with two of her childre
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Mar 27, 2021
THREAD

A STORY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN RIGHTS

As I wrap up my PhD dissertation—which centers on matters of governance, accountability, and health—I would like to share one woman’s story that has inspired much of my work.

1/
For some of my followers, the story might stretch the boundaries of the imagination.

But the common threads of humanity transcend all boundaries—and stories like this one have informed my work on everything from African healthcare systems to U.S. democratic restoration.

2/
The story takes place back in 2012, on the day that PHP, the health and human rights organization that I co-founded, was launching the Omukazi Namagara Program, its expanded maternal and neonatal health initiative in the Ankole Region of Uganda.

3/
proghealth.org
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