🚨THREAD🚨
2020 Hispanic Voters:
☑️POTUS made big inroads with Hispanics nationwide
☑️Trump outperformed Romney, McCain, Bush 2000 and Dole in America's most Hispanic counties
☑️Trump improved his standing relative to 2016 in 86 of the country's majority Hispanic counties
2020 Hispanic Voters:
☑️POTUS made big inroads with Hispanics nationwide
☑️Trump outperformed Romney, McCain, Bush 2000 and Dole in America's most Hispanic counties
☑️Trump improved his standing relative to 2016 in 86 of the country's majority Hispanic counties
☑️Strong correlation: The more Hispanic the county, the higher the gain for Trump
☑️Overall, Trump gained 6 pts in the +50% Hispanic counties
☑️Encouraging for Conservatives: In the states where Hispanics heard both sides, the gains were even higher despite being outspent
☑️Overall, Trump gained 6 pts in the +50% Hispanic counties
☑️Encouraging for Conservatives: In the states where Hispanics heard both sides, the gains were even higher despite being outspent
Disclaimers:
⚠️Votes are still being counted. This is preliminary.
⚠️There's an effort to dismiss/mischaracterize the President's gains as being limited to Cubans. That's demonstrably false.
⚠️Ignore initial exit polls and Univision's polling. Both are off.
Onto the data...
⚠️Votes are still being counted. This is preliminary.
⚠️There's an effort to dismiss/mischaracterize the President's gains as being limited to Cubans. That's demonstrably false.
⚠️Ignore initial exit polls and Univision's polling. Both are off.
Onto the data...
Let's start with my homestate of FL where there was a major realignment.
Clinton beat POTUS by 30 in Miami-Dade, FL's most Hispanic county. In 2020, Trump cut 23 pts off of the Dem's margins for their worst showing since '04.
Yes, Cubans played a big role, but there's more...
Clinton beat POTUS by 30 in Miami-Dade, FL's most Hispanic county. In 2020, Trump cut 23 pts off of the Dem's margins for their worst showing since '04.
Yes, Cubans played a big role, but there's more...
Trump likely grew with Cubans by 2x digits (more details later). Univision/Biden's pollster said we'd lose Cubans by 15.🤔#ArrozConMango
Anyway, the more interesting story is POTUS' gains with non-Cuban Hisp's.
@BiancaJoanie/@sabrod123 are right: We need a better label
Anyway, the more interesting story is POTUS' gains with non-Cuban Hisp's.
@BiancaJoanie/@sabrod123 are right: We need a better label
Understandibly, much attention is paid to Venezuelan Americans. ~80,000 are eligible to vote in Florida.
Unknown to many is that there are ~ 3 times as many Colombian American voters, a demographic group that is often overlooked by the media and politicians.
Unknown to many is that there are ~ 3 times as many Colombian American voters, a demographic group that is often overlooked by the media and politicians.
President Trump gained about 12-15 points with Colombians, a naturally conservative constituency.
The Hammocks, a middle class suburb of Miami, is home to one of the largest Colombian-American communities.
In The Hammocks:
2016: Trump 34%
2020: Trump 49%
The Hammocks, a middle class suburb of Miami, is home to one of the largest Colombian-American communities.
In The Hammocks:
2016: Trump 34%
2020: Trump 49%
Yes, POTUS also made big gains with Venezuelans, and very likely with Nicaraguans and Peruvians, too.
Trump gained about 22 points with Venezuelans and won 51% of the vote in Doral, a heavily Venezuelan municipality in Miami-Dade AKA Doralzuela.
Trump gained about 22 points with Venezuelans and won 51% of the vote in Doral, a heavily Venezuelan municipality in Miami-Dade AKA Doralzuela.
President Trump GAINED ~11 pts with **Puerto Ricans** in Central Florida. Except @BonillaJL, few expected this.
Look at two heavily Puerto Rican neighborhoods:
In 2016, Trump won 18% in Meadow Parks. In 2020: 29%
Similarly, in 2016, Trump won 20% in Azalea Park. In 2020: 31%
Look at two heavily Puerto Rican neighborhoods:
In 2016, Trump won 18% in Meadow Parks. In 2020: 29%
Similarly, in 2016, Trump won 20% in Azalea Park. In 2020: 31%
Trump's gain in FL's Puerto Rican precincts is consistent with (as @MarcACaputo pointed out on election night) an 11-pt. improvement in his Osceola County margins, which is home to Kissimmee, the heart of FL's Boricua community.
On to Texas, my current home...🤠#DaleDoesDallas
On to Texas, my current home...🤠#DaleDoesDallas
Texas is home to the country's most Hispanic counties, 9 of them that are +90% Latino.
Six of them — Zapata, Starr, Maverick, Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron — are on the border.
The other three are Zavala, Jim Hogg and Brooks are nearby.
Combined, Trump gained **15 POINTS** here.
Six of them — Zapata, Starr, Maverick, Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron — are on the border.
The other three are Zavala, Jim Hogg and Brooks are nearby.
Combined, Trump gained **15 POINTS** here.
If you add up the totals in these 90%+ Hispanic counties, it was Biden 58%, Trump 41%— up from 28% in 2016.
In other words, Trump out-performed Romney, McCain, Bush (2000), and Dole (I stopped counting there) in America's most heavily Hispanic region.
Think about that.
In other words, Trump out-performed Romney, McCain, Bush (2000), and Dole (I stopped counting there) in America's most heavily Hispanic region.
Think about that.
The +90% Hispanic counties are working class, predominantly Mexican-American, rural and a high % of the people who live there speak Spanish at home.
I'll let y'all draw your own conclusions about whether these Americans feel their voices are heard by the nation's elites.
I'll let y'all draw your own conclusions about whether these Americans feel their voices are heard by the nation's elites.
Votes are still being counted in AZ, but the unofficial vote tallies suggest that in its +50% Hispanic counties (Yuma and Santa Cruz), Trump grew his share by 6 pts vs. 2016.
More details to come later, but this is consistent with precinct-level data I'm seeing elsewhere.
More details to come later, but this is consistent with precinct-level data I'm seeing elsewhere.
A quick stop in New Mexico:
There are 12 majority Hispanic counties in NM.
Combined, Pres. Trump gained 4 points here from 2016.
In the ones that are +66% Hispanic — Doña Ana, Guadalupe, Luna, Mora, Rio Arriba, and San Miguel —Trump's combined gains were larger: +6.
There are 12 majority Hispanic counties in NM.
Combined, Pres. Trump gained 4 points here from 2016.
In the ones that are +66% Hispanic — Doña Ana, Guadalupe, Luna, Mora, Rio Arriba, and San Miguel —Trump's combined gains were larger: +6.
Not surprising, but there was little movement in the majority-Hispanic counties in California, Kansas and Washington (where neither side really competed) compared to 2016.
When you add them up, the vote was virtually unmoved here.
When you add them up, the vote was virtually unmoved here.
New York!
It's interesting that in The Bronx, which is ~56% Hispanic (mostly Puerto Rican and Dominican) and very liberal, Trump *INCREASED* his share of the vote from 9% in 2016 to 17% in 2020.
That's an 8-point shift where few peopel expected one.
It's interesting that in The Bronx, which is ~56% Hispanic (mostly Puerto Rican and Dominican) and very liberal, Trump *INCREASED* his share of the vote from 9% in 2016 to 17% in 2020.
That's an 8-point shift where few peopel expected one.
Trump's gains in The Bronx are consistent with what we saw in Philly's most Latino neighborhoods where he gained 12 pts and where there's some demographic overlap.
2016
DJT: 7%
HRC: 91%
2020
DJT: 19%
JRB: 79%
2016
DJT: 7%
HRC: 91%
2020
DJT: 19%
JRB: 79%
Similarly, in Milwaukee, President Trump improved his share of the vote from 15% in 2016 to 21% in 2020.
I'm looking at neighborhoods like Historic Mitchell Street, Muskego Way and Layton Park.
Again, this is all preliminary data subject to revisions.
I'm looking at neighborhoods like Historic Mitchell Street, Muskego Way and Layton Park.
Again, this is all preliminary data subject to revisions.
I'll share more in the coming days, but the data tell a good story for conservatives:
Despite being heavily outspent and years of attacks, when Hispanics were presented with Pres. Trump's message, we saw meaningful gains.
There's much work to be done. Let's go out and do it.
Despite being heavily outspent and years of attacks, when Hispanics were presented with Pres. Trump's message, we saw meaningful gains.
There's much work to be done. Let's go out and do it.
Correction: This should say 13 points. 😀
One more thing:
I realize this is data heavy. I'll share some thoughts on *why* the shift happened in the coming days and weeks.
The reasons vary by region, demographic, and sometimes different causes shifted votes among subgroups within the same community.
I realize this is data heavy. I'll share some thoughts on *why* the shift happened in the coming days and weeks.
The reasons vary by region, demographic, and sometimes different causes shifted votes among subgroups within the same community.
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