Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update November 10: The next 3 months are essential in the COVID battle. 1/

The next 3 months will be the worst period of the virus. We are living in the horrible exponential phase of growth of the virus in the midst of a moment of the greatest promise. 2/

130,000 daily cases.
46 states have uncontrolled growth.
16 states have the potential ICU capacity concerns. 3/

Governors are taking half measures if they’re taking any at all in these states.

Minneosota facing uncontrolled growth, limited capacity & health care workers who are sick. Many kids are hospitalized.

And the governor took the dramatic step of closing bars at 10 pm. 4/

Governor, I don’t know how to say this, but the virus doesn’t tell time.

But he’s not entirely to blame. In Germany they are paying their bar owners while they are temporarily closed. Our Congress won’t life a finger. 5/

Then there’s the matter of college kids. We have one. I love him. So I mean this with no disrespect: stay away from them. Keep them away from the people you love. Shun them if they come home for Thanksgiving. Have them sleep in the garage. Have their masks wear masks. 6/

Fox News scoop: “Slavitt, Liberals hate Thanksgiving, Family, and College Kids” 7/

The truth is I’ve been listening to states discuss rules for staying healthy over Thanksgiving. Ask people what they think & you hear a combo of: have fewer than 10 people, eat 6 feet apart, test people before. No. 8/

It starts with this. Understand how air moves indoors. And how time, ventilation, masks, distance, filtration, and voice play a role.

Listen to @CorsIAQ and @BhadeliaMD here if you haven’t. Make your family. 9/

Smarturl.it/inthebubble

Soon after Thanksgiving, we will begin to see vaccines roll out. We will have an episode on vaccine distribution,

In the meantime, expect 4 vaccines to submit EUAs beginning next week with Moderna & going through January. 10/

Expect front line healthcare workers to start receiving vaccines in hospitals this year. The vaccines will be distributed almost entirely from hospitals 11/

Good chance for you to have 1 (or 2) in your arm by the middle of the year. Likely the vaccine lasts at least a year. Likely it gets combined into your flu vaccines eventually— unless you get the mRNA one. 12/

The point of all this is what I said at the start: this is likely the worst period. We will see dramatic improvements next year through the course of the year. Likely still wearing masks.

But if that’s the case, this is a relatively short period of sacrifice. 13/

Over those months, the crying & the super-spreading in the White House will be passed over to adults, scientists, clinicians, and honest people. 14/

But In the meantime, you need to stay safe. It’s months. Not years. And it’s lives we can save. /end