Ben Chu Profile picture
11 Nov, 11 tweets, 6 min read
Thread on those EU trade deals with third countries the UK wants to roll over…

50 days to go ⏱️

15 still to go 🌎

Tariff threat looming for some £80bn a year of UK trade with countries ranging from Mexico to Singapore 💵
...1/
...I’ve had a look at the state of play for @independent with @joncstone... 2/

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
…Here’s the gaps and the size of the economic hole….2/
…and here’s it’s share of the total…3/
….As @allierenison of @The_IoD tell us: UK firms care MORE about rolling over EXISTING trade deals than they do about Global Britain striking new ones post-Brexit…4/
…So will they all be successfully rolled in the 7 or so weeks to 31 December? @SamuelMarcLowe of @CER_EU says it’s possible.

But we’re cutting it VERY fine. And a Turkey deal (£18bn/year of trade) depends on an EU deal because they are in a customs union with the EU…5/
…All this is unsettling for companies that trade with these countries, as this report by @b_c_chapman shows... 6/ independent.co.uk/news/business/…
…also crucial point from Alan Winters of @uk_tpo – even nominally rolled over deals with some countries like Switzerland are NOT COMPLETE because they depend on the UK having an EU deal…7/
…but that new trade deal with Japan is actually an improvement not a roll over isn’t it?

Not really says @thom_sampson of @UKandEU ...8/
….But new trade deals after Brexit will bring down domestic prices won’t they?

No says @levell_peter of @TheIFS... 9/

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
...So: Ignore the dubious claims of new trade gains from these rollovers and the "Global Britain" spiel from ministers.

When it comes to these rollover trade deals the UK has just 50 days to successfully stand still.

ENDS

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More from @BenChu_

9 Nov
A thread about "Green gilts"…🌲🪙

So the Chancellor announced today that the government will launch its “first ever Sovereign Green Bond next year”…1/

gov.uk/government/spe…
…First what IS a Green Bond?

Well, it’s a bond raised to “fund projects to tackle climate change, finance much-needed infrastructure investment, and create green jobs across this country,” says the Treasury…2/
….But hang on, aren’t those the things this government has said it plans to borrow lots of money to spend on anyway? Yes.

So what makes a “green” sovereign bond different from any other regular sovereign bond?...3/
Read 10 tweets
9 Nov
NEW: Boris Johnson has “lost interest” in devolution of power in England, says devolution champion Lord Heseltine

My @Independent story:

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
...Context: the Tory manifesto promised: “Full devolution across England” to enable “every part of our country…to shape its own destiny”

This was presented as part of Johnson's "levelling up" agenda...
...Former local government minister Simon Clarke said in July that a new White Paper would “connect local recovery with levelling up”...

Now Simon Clarke has resigned (personal reasons) & the White Paper has been postponed...
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
🚨I'm told Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at Office for Statistics Regulation (UK's statistics watchdog), spoke privately yesterday to @uksciencechief and @CMO_England to voice concerns about their presentation of modelling data at last Saturday's press conference
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
🚨Independent UK statistics watchdog criticises UK government for lack of transparency over publication of coronavirus modelling data, following complaints over charts shown by @CMO_England and @uksciencechief

Says modelling should be published when referred to publicly by officials, especially when it's guiding policy...
...remember that government has STILL not released its Reasonable Worst Case Scenario for Covid deaths that the Boris Johnson said we are exceeding...
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
🚨BREAK: UK Statistics watchdog criticises UK Government for lack of transparency over publication of coronavirus cases data, following complaints over charts shown by @CMO_England and @uksciencechief
Says sources should be specified and models PUBLISHED if they are guiding policy...
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
Wording of this Sun piece suggests Treasury briefed out the Bank's £150bn QE decision the day before - not a good look for the Bank's independence
Bear in mind that a Treasury representative sits in on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meetings - so they certainly know what decisions are coming
Asked about the Sun story at the press conference Governor Andrew Bailey says: "We will look into it"
Read 5 tweets

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