There are two things that are set to happen with the election results in the coming weeks that ordinarily would be formalities, but in a disputed election are crucial.
First is the states' certifications of their results. Second is the selection of electors.
Right now, both processes are clearly on track to make Biden the next president.
Trump's only hope is to upset the apple cart on one or both. Blocking or delaying certifications somehow, or getting partisan GOP state legislators in states Biden won to appoint Trump electors.
Re: certifications, Trump will get little help from officials in the key states— they're mostly Democrats or bipartisan boards, except for GA Sec of State Brad Raffensperger.
Raffensperger is being pressured from the right, but he's pushed back so far
If certifications proceed as planned, the next step in the process is the selection of electors. Again, should be a formality. Biden should get electors in the states Biden won.
But the risk, many have long argued, is that GOP state legislators, will try to make a move here
PA's state senate majority leader, Jake Corman (R), has said for months that the state legislature plays no role in appointing electors, according to PA law.
But now, facing "pressure" to overturn the results, he's hedging that statement, saying that's in "normal circumstances"
A Wisconsin GOP state legislator has already endorsed this idea.
"You either have to toss this election out and have a whole new election, or we have our delegates to the Electoral College vote for the person they think legitimately should have won"
Still, there does not currently appear to be a solid effort on the part of any GOP legislature to replace Biden electors with Trump electors.
But we'll have to see if that changes in the weeks ahead as the pressure rises.
Even if legislatures do decide to make a play, there's a problem — WI, PA, & MI have Dem governors who will veto any attempt to change state laws.
But there's also a potential solution: the Gorsuch/Kav theory that state legislatures, not governors, call the shots in elections
To be clear, this is a far-fetched scenario. It's very unlikely to actually happen. Things look to be on track for Biden.
But again, the two things to watch in the coming weeks are: whether states stay on track for certifications, and how GOP legislators talk about electors
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An interesting passage explaining why Mueller didn't charge Roger Stone or WikiLeaks with conspiracy regarding the hacked emails. Let's go through it...
First, the report confirms Mueller considered charging WikiLeaks, Assange, or Stone as "conspirators in the computer-intrusion conspiracy," under the theory that they were "late joiners" to the Russian intelligence officers' hacking plot.
But not sufficient "admissible evidence" that WikiLeaks knew of hackings before they happened, or made an agreement about it.
"A “fence” who had no advance knowledge of the plan to steal the goods he disposes of... is generally not liable for conspiring to steal those goods"
Just spoke to Diana Solorio from the Maricopa County, AZ recorder’s office.
She says over 1.3 million early ballots have been returned and processed. That’s about half the number of total registered voters in Maricopa County (about 2.6M).
Each returned ballot must be signature verified by two separate people. That's already happened for these 1.3 million ballots.
(This is the time-consuming mail ballot processing that WI, PA, and MI haven't started yet, bc Republican legislators wouldn't allow an early start)
Due to a 2019 law change, Arizona's ballot processing now begins 14 days before the election — previously, it could only begin 7 days before.
This extra time will be a big help in dealing with a record number of mail ballots
It's kind of odd that Republican-controlled Nebraska never bothered to fix this "hey, some years we might randomly throw an electoral vote to the Democrat" situation.
After Obama won NE-2 in 2008 they did redistrict the state to make that less likely. But they didn't ditch the weird congressional district electoral vote system entirely, and now it's rearing its head again.
Apparently a bill to move Nebraska's electoral votes back to winner-take-all failed in 2016... by a single vote, because it was filibustered
Harry Reid changed Senate rules for non-Supreme Court nominations in 2013. Mitch McConnell changed Senate rules for Supreme Court nominations in 2017. This really isn't complicated, but some people really enjoy misleading their followers.
My goodness. If you change the rules because you are mad at Harry Reid for making a different rules change four years ago... you're still changing the rules!
Most consequential bad conduct at the state level re: elections this year is a three-way tie between PA, MI, and WI GOP legislators, for refusing to let mail ballot processing start earlier.
Effect is to guarantee a slow, lengthy mail vote count. Deliberately delaying results
I'm not referring to mail ballots that arrive after election day. I mean those that arrive *before* it.
With an unprecedented number coming, several GOP-run states (FL,AZ,OH) sensibly begin processing them early. Gets paperwork out of the way, allows quicker election night count
GOP legislators in PA, WI, MI refused Dem requests for significant advance processing time.
So PA and WI can't process the mail ballots that have been piling up for weeks until election day.
MI GOP made a limited concession to allow some the day before, may not mean much
Rudy will probably gain newfound appreciation for the argument that even in material that appears to be largely authentic, there can be misleading presentation or disinformation