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11 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
In crypto, a very important question to ask is “What if we’re the marks?”

cryptobriefing.com/behind-shroud-…
Best detail is how they sent X00 Bitcoin to their crypto custody provider and then found out that the person they thought was their AM at the custody provider was actually a fraudster and the Bitcoin was now unrecoverable.
That is an attack vector in real finance, too, and has been for hundreds of years, so sophisticated firms are reasonably careful about checking.
(Two variants are impersonating CEO at victim company and directing someone to wire $X million immediately (to a compromised bank account, for forwarding) because you’re CEO darn it, why ask questions, and inserting oneself into ongoing real transaction but replacing bank info.)
(“Hey this is $VICTIM’s Accounts Receivable department. Just wanted to let you know that our new bank account is... Oh this month’s invoice says different? Must have gotten sent just before the transition but nope, this is the right one.”)

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More from @patio11

Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
11 Nov
It floors me that with all the AI/ML expertise being deployed on relatively narrow problems, the best productivity suites can do to predict which documents are relevant to your interests is "sort by access_time desc"
How about

"Team members who viewed this Gantt chart also viewed the project plan"
"You comment on 100% of documents with Bitcoin in title. Maybe this one also relevant to your interests."
"A paragraph you wrote copy/pasted to here; it is visible to you; maybe we should flag it."
"You searched, opened this document, and closed it 3 seconds later; probably not what you were looking for so maybe I won't put it in Recent Documents."
"You start every day by checking email and updating your daily action plan. I wonder what doc you will open today."
Read 6 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
8 Nov
Most interesting e-commerce experience I’ve had recently:

My glasses are getting old and beat up, but I am fine on prescription, so I go to Ye Olde Chain Shoppe.

First question: “Did you use the app last time to save your data?”
“Yes.”
“Brilliant. In that case, we will give you 5,000 yen off ($50) if you buy the glasses on the app. You have to do the data entry, but we can assist you in using the app. Or, I can do it, but $50 more expensive. Either way you pick up here in 30 minutes. Want the discount?”
“Sure, how hard can it be.”

“Not hard at all. Here are printed instructions.”

(Mad props, Tokyo retail staffer, for not even questioning whether I’d be able to read them.)
Read 12 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
7 Nov
Ruriko: "Hey our friend invited Lillian to play tomorrow but we can't go. Is this correct English? 'Lillian cannot come to play.'"
Me: "Yes that is grammatically correct but would be considered a bit rude. Let's rewrite."
*we do*
Ruriko: "Isn't this... super Japanese?"
Me: "..."
Me: "I literally don't know at this point whether the stylistic choices are more Japanese salaryman or Chicagoan but trust me it will work for a native English speaker in our social class."
Ruriko: "Gotcha. You should do this for people. That's a job, isn't it?"
Mental monologue: "Thank you for your LinkedIn message. While I wish you the best of luck in your search for a full-time playdate invitation ghostwriter, I am afraid that professional commitments make me unavailable at this time. If something changes, I'll be in touch."
Read 9 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
7 Nov
So let me put actual numbers on something that imply transactions which will greatly impact SaaS.

Humble Bundle: $12 a month or $132 (1 month off $144) for a year.

Amex splitting a $132 bill into 12 payments, with fee included: $143.64
“What happened here?”

Humble prefers cash up front. Amex has low cost of capital. They can synthetically trade in low volume, mediated by the customer, if they convince customer to do something a bit weird.
Unsurprisingly, there is an opportunity to eliminate the middleman here.
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
6 Nov
One of the best essays you'll read for a while.

"The most effective institutions tend to reshape society in their own image, and the more effective they are, the more profound the reshaping."
Capitalism is a prion; it turns basically everything it touches into capitalism. Some people see that as a conspiracy or plot to take over the world; the prion only sees other proteins that would be more effective at reproducing capitalism if they were themselves capitalism.
"I will give you everything you want if you make yourself more like me."
"I hate you."
"I'm totally cool with that. I am the best engine ever created for expressing the hatred of capitalism. How much of it would you like to purchase?"
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
6 Nov
My unified theory of why political preferences and efficient markets mean that you should default to expecting tight races and a high degree of disagreement, regardless of e.g. ground truths about the electorate or shifts in preferences.

A thread and commentary.
(I try to avoid committing politics in it, for the usual reasons. Mostly this is one of those "Systems are complicated but if you understand their inner logic and incentives, the world makes a lot more sense" explorations.)
"Would this change if we e.g. had a sudden directional shift in the US polity, or ditched the electoral college, or annexed a new country?"

Does new information about reality typically make markets inefficient? No, quickly adjusting to new information is what they do best.
Read 4 tweets

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