Thread by @DrKyle

What does a healthy, properly staffed & resourced, non-clusterfuck covid-19 testing and tracing system look like?

Let me show you using this overlay of Saskatchewan's publicly available data up until a month ago:

I've scaled the values so they overlay more nicely, to make it easier to see which ones go up first and when they come back down.
First - cases and test positivity go up as new cases are discovered
Next - the tracing backlog gets bigger as contact tracers get to work

Third - Active cases accumulate as even mild cases take a week or two to resolve
Fourth - Tests go up as contacts get informed to get tested
Fifth - If contact tracers get ahead of the outbreak cases and positivity drop

Sixth - Contact tracers continue to resolve case origins and their caseload drops
Seventh - active cases drop as they recover
Eighth - testing numbers may drop as undetected cases become fewer & contacts run out

Now what's happened in the last month?
In a word, a catastrophe.

New cases spike, positivity spikes, testing is already maxed out (yellow) so it can't compensate. Positivity goes up more, contact tracers become overloaded and unresolved cases shoot up.

In a vicious cycle cases, positivity and backlog keep increasing and the people & resources dedicated to testing and tracing have no hope of keeping up. Without mass interventions there is no getting out of this hole. Hospitalizations & deaths are late indicators to go up.

Want to see the values animate out? Check the visualization here: public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

The solution is obvious, even if it's undesirable. The only way to catch up on an ever-increasing backlog of tests and contacts is to slam the brakes. No tapering down with graduated restrictions will do. Saskatchewan *needs* a circuit breaker. #skpoli ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…