Tweet

Dave Lee

12 Nov, 12 tweets, 2 min read

Was just watching video of a bitcoin bull... for every point he makes, I have like 5 questions. But the interviewer just nods in agreement of everything.

One example, "bitcoin is the only deflationary asset".

Here's a thread...

Bitcoin is neither deflationary or inflationary in nature. It’s simply a product/asset that people are ascribing value to at the moment. This can and will change over time. People could ascribe more value to it in the future, or they could ascribe less value in the future.

Just because as a bitcoin bull you think people will ascribe more value to it in the future and the rate of new bitcoin mined is decreasing over time, doesn’t make it “deflationary”. All it means is you think this product will be worth more in the future.

Seems like a lot of bitcoin bulls think because something is “scarce” that makes it “deflationary”. That’s not necessarily the case. Something scarce can be a good inflation hedge.

Meaning, as printing of money decreases value of money in some senses, some assets that are perceived to be more scarce can increase in value and keep in check with inflation or even grow in value more than inflation.

This can be the case for many things, like art, collectibles, gold, great companies, real estate, etc. Does that make all those assets “deflationary”. Not really, it just means the scarcity of those assets helps their perceived value and as money supply increases...

then those assets will/can demand more money if value of money has decreased. Now, a lot of bitcoin bulls seem to believe that because bitcoin is “scarce” it will cause people to bid it up since people will flock to it as a safety from inflation of fiat currency.

Now this could be a possibility. But it’s not guaranteed by any means. And just because people can bid up an asset doesn’t mean that it’s “deflationary” in nature. All it means it that asset has grown in value because demand for the product has grown.

All in all, it’s kind of silly to me when people say “bitcoin is the ONLY deflationary asset in the world” and I’m amazed that more people don’t question this reasoning, and many of the other points that bitcoin bulls make.

Seems like bitcoin bulls can say almost anything and they most everybody nods in agreement. Where’s the critical thinking and questioning? But I can also say this of Tesla bull arguments as well.

Lots of people just accept any and all Tesla bull arguments… we need more critical thinking and questioning, and less dogma and closed thinking.

End of rant.

Twitter added my tweets in all the wrong order. So here's the thread as a paragraph.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @heydave7

Dave Lee

@heydave7

14 Nov

First 50 or so invites sent for my beta research team who's first project is to research Starlink more fully. Thanks to all those who reached out.

Here's a thread on what I'm expecting and hoping for...

True/accurate in-depth research is rare, especially in a world where it seems like most are chasing quick gains from the many people pushing stock names.

So much noise and not much signal because people aren't looking deep enough.

So the idea is how can I supercharge in-depth research of companies with decade-winning potential?

I'm limited myself in terms of time, so I've thought of various options. Like even hiring a full-time researcher or two.

Read 8 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

12 Nov

The strongest argument for Bitcoin is the demand one IMO.

Increased anxiety over growing govt debt, $ printing, and economic uncertainty leads to increased demand in inflation-protected assets. Further, big money is growing more interest in Bitcoin which drives demand further.

When a Bitcoin bull says they expect Bitcoin to rise due to increased demand over new few years, I'm not going to argue with them. This is the strongest argument they have. In fact, this is why I'm not a Bitcoin bear. As long as demand increases, Bitcoin price can rise.

If I was invested in Bitcoin I would track demand (money in and money out) of Bitcoin religiously and get a pulse of exactly where inflow and outflow is coming from.

The moment when critical mass of core believers are moving out, I'd be out of that trade.

Read 8 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

8 Oct

Here’s a thread about my take on the VP debate.

1. Much more substantial topics were discussed than the Presidential debate. Moderator kept it civil and productive.

2. Pence did a better job at speaking to his target audiences:
- non-urban
- blue-colllar
- military
- police
- religious
- gun owners
- wealthy

Read 9 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

4 Oct

The most impressive low-risk, high-reward investment gains I've seen are from people with relatively high and secure income (ie., high-paying job, passive income, business, etc) and they invest their vast majority of savings into decade-winners.

Their secure and high income makes it easy to replace money they lose with bad investments and gives them more chances to find the next big decade-winner.

On flip side, I do see some who make amazing gains by taking huge risks with money that they can't easily replace. Sometimes it works out, but most of the times it doesn't.

Read 7 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

27 Sep

Exceptional service is rare, so when I receive it I usually try to let their manager/store owner know. If large co., then I let manager know but also email corporate. In my email I describe the exceptional service I received and I ask that the employee be recognized for it.

I just did this yesterday for a banker at a Wells Fargo branch. He went out of his way and helped me out with a somewhat complicated matter. I asked him how I can help him get recognized for his exceptional service. He was thrilled.

On the spot, I sent an email to Wells Fargo corporate and also talked to his manager asking her to make sure he gets recognized.

Corporate replied via email, "I've forwarded your comments to the appropriate manager. They'll recognize [] for providing you with excellent service."

Read 4 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

25 Sep

@elonmusk

Here's a few reasons why I think @elonmusk is sandbagging the timeline for Battery Day improvements.

1. Elon is keenly aware Battery Day must not affect Model 3/Y sales negatively AT ALL. If he mentioned pending price or range improvements for 3/Y, it could halt sales.

2. It's obvious that Tesla is well underway in their aggressive battery developments. This didn't start just several months ago.

3. New 4680 cells are likely going to first production of Semi (initially for Tesla internal use). Roadrunner line seems active already, so I wouldn't be surprised if Semis are already being built right now with the new cells, albeit in limited quantities.

Read 10 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!