Tweet

Dave Lee

12 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read

The strongest argument for Bitcoin is the demand one IMO.

Increased anxiety over growing govt debt, $ printing, and economic uncertainty leads to increased demand in inflation-protected assets. Further, big money is growing more interest in Bitcoin which drives demand further.

When a Bitcoin bull says they expect Bitcoin to rise due to increased demand over new few years, I'm not going to argue with them. This is the strongest argument they have. In fact, this is why I'm not a Bitcoin bear. As long as demand increases, Bitcoin price can rise.

If I was invested in Bitcoin I would track demand (money in and money out) of Bitcoin religiously and get a pulse of exactly where inflow and outflow is coming from.

The moment when critical mass of core believers are moving out, I'd be out of that trade.

@APompliano

Folks like @APompliano are seeing rising demand for Bitcoin and placing big bets on price appreciation in next few years. No way, I'm betting against him. Smart to follow the demand and to keep invested as long as demand grows.

pomp.substack.com/p/the-investme…

The tricky part is to catch if and when demand turns for Bitcoin. Meaning, if things sour for Bitcoin the folks in the forefront with connections to big money and big holders will be able to see it. But regular folk might not until it's too late.

All in all, good luck to those who are betting on Bitcoin. I'm actually a huge proponent of wishing and hoping that Bitcoin becomes hugely successful because I align with many of its original values. I might be skeptical of it's long-term prospects (ie., 10 years out)...

But I can respect those who are seeing opportunity and know how to manage their investments/trades in a way to hedge risk and be exposed to high upside.

For me, I'd rather put my money into something like Starlink... where I can be a daily user of the product and I can forecast revenues growing for many decades to come.

But to each their own. 10x, or even 100x's can come in many forms.

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More from @heydave7

Dave Lee

@heydave7

14 Nov

First 50 or so invites sent for my beta research team who's first project is to research Starlink more fully. Thanks to all those who reached out.

Here's a thread on what I'm expecting and hoping for...

True/accurate in-depth research is rare, especially in a world where it seems like most are chasing quick gains from the many people pushing stock names.

So much noise and not much signal because people aren't looking deep enough.

So the idea is how can I supercharge in-depth research of companies with decade-winning potential?

I'm limited myself in terms of time, so I've thought of various options. Like even hiring a full-time researcher or two.

Read 8 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

12 Nov

Was just watching video of a bitcoin bull... for every point he makes, I have like 5 questions. But the interviewer just nods in agreement of everything.

One example, "bitcoin is the only deflationary asset".

Here's a thread...

Bitcoin is neither deflationary or inflationary in nature. It’s simply a product/asset that people are ascribing value to at the moment. This can and will change over time. People could ascribe more value to it in the future, or they could ascribe less value in the future.

Just because as a bitcoin bull you think people will ascribe more value to it in the future and the rate of new bitcoin mined is decreasing over time, doesn’t make it “deflationary”. All it means is you think this product will be worth more in the future.

Read 12 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

8 Oct

Here’s a thread about my take on the VP debate.

1. Much more substantial topics were discussed than the Presidential debate. Moderator kept it civil and productive.

2. Pence did a better job at speaking to his target audiences:
- non-urban
- blue-colllar
- military
- police
- religious
- gun owners
- wealthy

Read 9 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

4 Oct

The most impressive low-risk, high-reward investment gains I've seen are from people with relatively high and secure income (ie., high-paying job, passive income, business, etc) and they invest their vast majority of savings into decade-winners.

Their secure and high income makes it easy to replace money they lose with bad investments and gives them more chances to find the next big decade-winner.

On flip side, I do see some who make amazing gains by taking huge risks with money that they can't easily replace. Sometimes it works out, but most of the times it doesn't.

Read 7 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

27 Sep

Exceptional service is rare, so when I receive it I usually try to let their manager/store owner know. If large co., then I let manager know but also email corporate. In my email I describe the exceptional service I received and I ask that the employee be recognized for it.

I just did this yesterday for a banker at a Wells Fargo branch. He went out of his way and helped me out with a somewhat complicated matter. I asked him how I can help him get recognized for his exceptional service. He was thrilled.

On the spot, I sent an email to Wells Fargo corporate and also talked to his manager asking her to make sure he gets recognized.

Corporate replied via email, "I've forwarded your comments to the appropriate manager. They'll recognize [] for providing you with excellent service."

Read 4 tweets

Dave Lee

@heydave7

25 Sep

@elonmusk

Here's a few reasons why I think @elonmusk is sandbagging the timeline for Battery Day improvements.

1. Elon is keenly aware Battery Day must not affect Model 3/Y sales negatively AT ALL. If he mentioned pending price or range improvements for 3/Y, it could halt sales.

2. It's obvious that Tesla is well underway in their aggressive battery developments. This didn't start just several months ago.

3. New 4680 cells are likely going to first production of Semi (initially for Tesla internal use). Roadrunner line seems active already, so I wouldn't be surprised if Semis are already being built right now with the new cells, albeit in limited quantities.

Read 10 tweets

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