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Mangy Jay Profile picture
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12 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Here is what I find most comforting about the "Will Trump pull a coup?" situation: he does not have the support of the GOP legal establishment. Yes, GOP Senators are recklessly supporting him as he refuses to concede, but the GOP is not sending him their best legal support.
There are dozens of very talented (albeit evil) GOP lawyers who would be happy to take on this cause if they saw it as a winning fight. The Bush v. Gore team was the creme de la creme of assholes bred by the Federalist Society.
Who does Trump have? Guiliani ranting in a parking lot while wedged between a dildo shop and a crematorium. Oh, and Bossie, who doesn't even have a legal degree.

The GOP is *not* sending their best.

They know the path is implausible.
Overturning the results in PA is a path riddled w/ difficulty. But even if that *were* w/in the realm of possibility, guess what? We won AZ too.

Overturning the results in *multiple* states is just not going to happen.
What the GOP is doing now is still dangerous, though. It's just that the end-goal is not a coup. If it were, we would see the legal wheels turning and that's just not happening.
As I was saying: Not their best work
LMAO, according to a lawyer friend, the attorney representing Trump in this case goes by "Thor" and is a notorious "frivolous litigator"

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More from @magi_jay

Mangy Jay Profile picture
14 Nov
I think we should stop calling expanding our welfare state "socialist" because I don't think that branding has ever been especially accurate and I definitely don't think it's effective.
I mean, maybe it's effective for 20 year olds who are either already on board w/ vast welfare state expansion or those who want an excuse to performatively act out guillotining someone, but beyond that I fail to see how anyone else is persuaded by this whole genre of dialogue.
I say this as someone who wants to vastly expand the welfare state by regulating & taxing capital. I share the same goals and I actually think they are achievable if you do not sell them as "socialism"--which, again, is not even that accurate of a label in the first place.
Read 5 tweets
Mangy Jay Profile picture
13 Nov
I find this to be an odd description of Jaime Harrison.
My thinking is this: it is good that Black Democrats have a lot of power at all levels of the system. The DNC is primarily for fundraising and organizing. Harrison is great at fundraising. He is also very familiar w/ states in which we need to organize (the South East).
I don't see that Harrison is a symbol of all that went wrong in this election just b/c he lost his Senate race. I didn't see Abrams as a symbol of what went wrong when she lost her Gov's race either (& how stupid would that look now!).
Read 5 tweets
Mangy Jay Profile picture
12 Nov
I loved this thoughtful thread about good governance from @pwcdanica. As you read it, think about some of the things VA Democrats have achieved in just the past few years on issues ranging from gun safety to healthcare. They have truly transformed the state.
I got this list from a friend who works in VA politics:

In VA, Dems have done the following on gun safety: emergency risk protection orders, universal background checks, letting localities make laws, removing guns from abusers, among others
On Voting rights, VA Dems have achieved: 45 days no fault absentee voting, Election Day state holiday, automatic voter reg at DMVs, same day reg, & repealing photo ID
Read 6 tweets
Mangy Jay Profile picture
11 Nov
Sometimes, if you're arguing a lot about a slogan with other people, it can be good to take a step back and ask how much of the ideology behind the slogan you share in common with your interlocutors.
I see a lot of people getting mad at other people with whom they largely agree on underlying policy over a three word phrase and--though I get having a conversation about slogans--this has been going on for days and I don't see how it's productive.
I personally am trying to hold back a bit b/c I don't know that it's my place to criticize/endorse language that comes from activist communities. But I think I can say that at a certain point, this conversation has become acrimonious to the point that doesn't seem to be helping
Read 4 tweets
Mangy Jay Profile picture
10 Nov
It's not happening, but this kind of rhetoric is historically dangerous all the same.
No, there's not going to be a coup. The GOP is publicly playing along because they know it's in their best interests to 1. not piss off Trump and 2. sow doubts about the results of the election.
Just look at Trump's legal team. The GOP has fantastic (if evil) lawyers and none of them are flocking to support his fruitless cause of contesting multiple state results.
Read 9 tweets
Mangy Jay Profile picture
9 Nov
race X gender, per CES (which is more reliable than exit polls), presented as % Biden; % Trump

Asian men: 64/28
Asian women: 66/27
Black men: 81/14
Black women: 89/5
Hispanic men: 53/41
Hispanic women: 64/30
WhiteMen: 42/52
WhiteWomen: 48/46

bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/CES2020/ Image
One thing that struck me about these data is that virtually every group appears to have a within-group gender gap, except for Asian voters.
All the standard caveats apply:
-Although these data are better than a typical exit, no data set is perfect. We'll need more data before being "mostly sure"
-This is esp. true for subgroup data, esp. for minority groups, etc
-There are issues w/ groups like "Hispanic" & "Asian"
Read 11 tweets

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