Thread by @jimbuctwit

If feel like making a shocking statement, a bold prediction. One of those statements a person immortalizes in a tweet that others repost a couple months later and say “This didn’t age well”.

If you’ll bear with me I’ll explain what is swirling around in my head.

Here’s a hint:

First, I should say that I don’t have any special access to information and I don’t really have any special skill in making predictions pertinent to the coronavirus pandemic in South Dakota. But it’s obvious I’ve been paying attention.

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Some observations and assumptions:

COVID cases continue to rise in SD.
Community spread is SUBSTANTIAL just about EVERYWHERE in SD.
Some individual-level spread mitigation is happening.
No MEANINGFUL, broad governmental effort to mitigate spread is in effect.

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More assumptions:

Community spread will amplify.
Cases will continue to rise EXPONENTIALLY.
Hospitalizations will increase along with cases.
Deaths will follow hospitalizations.

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Furthermore:

Hospitals are already under great stress.
ICUs are effectively FULL.
Elective procedures are being canceled.
Surge beds are opening.
PAY NO ATTENTION to hospital capacity data on DoH site.

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And to restate the obvious:

It doesn’t matter how many surge beds are available.
It doesn’t matter how may ICU beds are magically created.
THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY CAREGIVERS.
Don’t expect many extra docs/nurses to come to SD.
Care will be compromised, and ultimately rationed.

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Rather than just ramble on...

I see no near-term change in the pandemic trajectory in South Dakota. I fully expect little ol’ Sioux Falls and Rapid City to go the way of NYC and El Paso. We will see refrigerated MORGUE TRUCKS before Christmas.

I surely hope I’m wrong.

1 more..

I started writing this before the numbers were published today, so please don't think this is just a dramatic reaction to the 2000.

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