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12 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This report is getting a lot of attention, rightly so. Terrible news, but very predictable.

Buried in the report, though, is one piece of information about % ED visits that we never get when the issue is COVID-like illness ED percentage. (1/4)
"The increased proportion of children’s mental health–related ED visits during March–October 2020 might be artefactually inflated as a consequence of the substantial decrease in overall ED visits during the same period..." Meaning, total number of visits is lower this year. (2/4)
When a total of 100 people normally visit ED, and five of them are CLI in 2019, that is 5%. If instead, the total number in 2020 is 50, and there are still 5 people visiting for CLI, that is 10%. The rate has doubled, but the number is the same. (3/4)
So, it is entirely possible that a big portion of the CLI % this year is due to the fact that less people go to ER overall. Context matters, and exactly because it does, public health is never transparent. Unless it is to argue that the collateral damage is not a big deal. (4/4)

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More from @covidtweets

Prof Profile picture
28 Oct
I may be speaking early, but it appears this Fall wave is already starting to fizzle. Either this is not the one, or it will be smaller than feared. There is indeed reason to think this may be the case, but first, a look at NC metrics. (1/x)
In NC, the CLI has turned sharply down, percent positive, hospitalizations, and ICU have flattened. Cases are struggling to go up. (2/x)
Not surprisingly, nearby Tennessee is seeing a similar trend, once again showing us that the virus is doing its thing. Hospitalizations and ICU have flattened there as well. Cases seem to have stalled. (3/x)
Read 7 tweets
Prof Profile picture
27 Oct
Debunking of the "COVID is not deadly for students but it is very dangerous for teachers/faculty/staff and the students are super-spreaders so teachers will all die" - second edition. (Thread - 1)
Exhibit-1: University of South Dakota. See how the gray line on this chart peaks after the student cases peaked, providing clear evidence that students are infecting faculty/staff? Neither do I... (2/x)
Exhibit-2: Appalachian State University. Scary stuff. Employee cases skyrocket as soon as the students come to campus... (3/x)
Read 7 tweets
Prof Profile picture
26 Oct
Twitter is now slowing down retweets to fight misinformation ahead of the election, by only allowing quote tweets instead of usual retweet. However, it seems they are only doing it for a subset of users, since I keep seeing others retweet normally. (1/x)
techcrunch.com/2020/10/09/twi…
Here is the huge problem with rolling this out on a user basis instead of globally: Which users? Social networks, including Twitter and Facebook, know exactly which accounts lean left and which accounts lean right. They have the ability to target features accordingly. (2/x) Image
I am not suggesting that they are doing it, but pointing to the unnerving fact that they have the ability. Suppose they want more voter turnout from one side - turn one dial and show more election news, voting reminders, etc. to them. Easy peasy. (3/x)
theconversation.com/can-facebook-i…
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Prof Profile picture
2 Oct
Upon careful deliberation, I hereby announce that I am leaving team reality and joining team apocalypse. Below I list my reasons to do so, which, after you all read, should convince you that it is for the best to leave team reality. (1/x)
First, I will no longer need to scrutinize studies, analyze data, question the messaging, and request evidence of whether a measure against COVID actually works. I will just believe in what I am told. Much less cognitive effort. (2/x)
Second, when confronted by a member of team reality, I will not have to actually share evidence of what I claim to be true. I will just throw a few insults and then block. That will save a lot of time! (3/x)
Read 5 tweets
Prof Profile picture
17 Sep
After colleges began opening for in-person instruction, some useful data began emerging. Here is one from Duke University. Below is their cumulative testing and cases data since August 2nd. Look at that % positive: .13%. Lowest I have ever seen. Seems strange? (Thread/1) Image
Now let's look at how they do these tests: Self-administered nasal testing, which, according to at least one study, is almost as accurate as nasopharyngeal, when patients are obviously infected (symptomatic). So what is going on? (2/x)
upi.com/Health_News/20… ImageImage
My theory: How often do we clean inside our noses vs. the uppermost part of the throat, behind the nose? Perhaps one is more likely to find inactive virus remnants via deep swabs, but as long as the virus is not active, there is no longer any RNA remaining inside the nose. (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
Prof Profile picture
15 Sep
The authors of the recent CDC transmission study pulled one trick which, to my knowledge, went largely unnoticed except for this tweet by @WesPegden. I want to publicize it a little more here. (1/x)
As I shared earlier, they find that mask wearing does not make one less likely to get infected. The difference between those who test positive and negative is almost as far away as possible from being statistically significant. (2/x)
twunroll.com/article/130428…
However, when reporting/discussing their findings, they don't say "There was not a significant difference in mask wearing between those who test positive and those who test negative." While I am glad they didn't bury it, the fact that they don't say it seems intentional.(3/x)
Read 5 tweets

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