I think that's still a pretty good guess, though getting from Biden +75/80k to 100k depends on two kinds of hazy votes that may be worse (or better) for Biden than I've roughly penciled-in: the 10k late absentees and provisional ballots
https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1327048971605348352?s=20
Right now, Biden's up ~60k and there are another ~40k regular absentees. So getting into the 75-80k range before provisionals/post-election absentees is straightforward, even if we conservatively assume that a disproportionate share of remaining absentees will be rejected
From there, we've got
--10k late absentees--which I'd expect to be good (say 2-1) but maybe not amazing for Biden, since Dems disproportionately returned their ballots early.
-- ~70k uncounted provisionals, very disproportionately in Dem areas
--10k late absentees--which I'd expect to be good (say 2-1) but maybe not amazing for Biden, since Dems disproportionately returned their ballots early.
-- ~70k uncounted provisionals, very disproportionately in Dem areas
The provisionals are the key to getting Biden up to 100k+, and they're not *amazing* for Biden. The prov results in Allegheny so far aren't as good for Biden as previously advertised by county officials. In general, provisionals are ~like the non-prov by county
That said, the remaining provisional ballots are disproportionately in Democratic areas and especially Philadelphia, so I'd expect Biden to pad his lead. At the moment, I think I'd bet against him getting to 100k out of it
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
