Canada could be the next Australia



The TANZANC (Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Atlantic & Northern Canada) successes demonstrate that democracies with the right intrinsic characteristics and well-crafted policies can achieve zero COVID transmission,

...with strong economic and societal benefits and superior resilience to future COVID waves."

"Democracies are constitutionally empowered to take the necessary tough measures. When actions are clearly explained, the public is generally supportive: Victoria State Premier Daniel Andrew’s 62-70% support throughout Melbourne’s 110-day lockdown is the most recent example..

The distinguishing characteristics of jurisdictions achieving zero COVID transmission appear to be competence and lack of complacency, not the nature of the regime."

"Most countries today aim to flatten the COVID curve to a manageable number of cases before relieving the pressure, with further interventions if numbers get too high. Some refer to this as the “hammer and dance”.

The TANZANC Model is more “hammer and tap”, with initial tough pounding (the hammer) followed by ongoing pressure (the tapping) until there is zero local transmission of COVID. The Australian government calls this approach “aggressive suppression”.

"New Zealand successfully implemented an aggressive zero COVID strategy early on, going over 100 days without local COVID transmissions.

"Faced with a major outbreak in August, New Zealand reacted swiftly and decisively. With zero COVID quickly restored, it was able to reduce its policy response stringency back to well below Canada’s within 3 weeks. [18 days!]

"Australia’s initial strategy focused on reducing cases to a manageable level. However, by the end of April, Australia had cut daily cases from a peak of over 450 to less than 20, with zero local transmission in most states.

"Australia was also inspired to be more ambitious by New Zealand’s success in getting to zero.

Responding to this new reality, Australia revised its strategic goal in July to “no community transmission of COVID-19.”

"New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador each eliminated local transmissions before forming a larger bubble in July to assist mobility and preserve hard-won gains.

"For over 3 months Atlantic Canada successfully maintained close to zero local transmissions with less than one case per million inhabitants. Atlantic Canada’s success in dealing with the second wave is far superior to all other regions.

"After aggressively and successfully addressing a flare-up of cases in early October, Atlantic Canada’s COVID infection rate remains considerably lower than the rest of Canada’s.

"While Atlantic Canada has the lowest COVID rate of any province or state, it does not have the lowest rate for any territory in North America.

"That prize goes to Northern Canada. Northern Canada’s extremely low rate is partly a result of its natural isolation, but also very much due to carefully crafted policies.

"The Yukon has not imposed travel restrictions, but all visitors must self-isolate for 14 days unless they are residents of British Columbia, Northwest Territories or Nunavut. Non- Yukon residents must complete their self-isolation in Whitehorse.

"The Northwest Territory limits non-essential travel into and within the territory. All arrivals, resident or non-resident, must self-isolate in Yellowknife, Inuvik, Hay River or Fort Smith for 14 days before being allowed elsewhere in the territory.

The Nunavut government took the strictest approach. Mindful of the ravages of respiratory disease in their community—Inuit are nearly 300 times more likely to get tuberculosis than other Canadians—they took as their moto: “Decisive in our approach, cautious in our choices.”

Decisive they have been. Almost all travel to Nunavut by non-residents is banned. Travel between mines (with flown-in workers) and the community has been cut-off. All residents returning to Nunavut must quarantine for 14 days in “southern isolation hubs”:

"hotels located outside of Nunavut in Winnipeg, Yellowknife, Ottawa or Edmonton. The government covers the cost. As in Australia, security ensures that the quarantine is respected. Through this unique approach, residents complete quarantine before even entering Nunavut.

Until November 6, when it recorded its first case, it was one of the few places in the world that had zero cases of COVID community infection since the beginning of the pandemic. Every other case has been caught at the quarantine facilities or by testing at the mines.

"Nunavut’s smart, proactive and rigorous approach, reflecting the needs of its community, has delivered world-class results.

Across the country indigenous leaders have been at the forefront of innovative, effective approaches to protect their people against COVID.

"Together, these essential policies and intrinsic characteristics have allowed the TANZANC jurisdictions to achieve and sustain zero COVID transmission.

Based on the experience of the 4 TANZANC jurisdictions, the benefits of zero local transmission include:

* Improved health outcomes, with fewer COVID cases;
* Reduced pressure on health services and schools;
* Increased social freedom;
* Increased economic freedom and a more sustained recovery;

*More equity. Women, young people, senior citizens, people with pre-existing
conditions, new immigrants, indigenous, racialized and economically disadvantaged communities have been disproportionately affected by societal, economic and/or health impact of COVID transmission

* Superior resilience to future COVID waves.

COVID social and economic constraints are significantly more relaxed than Canada’s in Taiwan, New Zealand, and Australia, as indicated by Oxford University’s Government Response Stringency Index.

"Far from sacrificing their economies to get to zero, all TANZANC jurisdictions (except for oil-price hit Newfoundland) project better 2020 economic performance than Canada.

"There was an initial belief that any success in reaching zero COVID would be short-lived due to inevitable new infections, such as the major outbreaks in New Zealand and Victoria State this summer. However, experience has proven that TANZANC jurisdictions are highly

.resilient to new COVID infections. NZ eliminated its outbreak quickly, and Victoria State is now virtually COVID free. Taiwan has avoided major outbreaks and both Atlantic & Northern Canada are dealing much more successfully with Canada’s second wave than any other region.

"The resilience of TANZANC jurisdictions in the face of new COVID waves is a huge benefit. They are well-positioned compared to most western countries facing lockdowns with the second wave and confronting a very difficult winter with potential third and fourth waves ahead.

"In summary, the benefits of the TANZANC model are considerable. There appears to be no net economic cost, but rather an economic benefit. The societal benefits are large, and particularly beneficial to the most vulnerable.

The enhanced resilience to future COVID waves provides greater control in the months ahead, while everyone waits for vaccines whose timing and efficacy are both uncertain.

"The TANZANC model of zero-transmission has proven to be a successful and sustainable strategy in several jurisdictions, including in Canada. The “hammer and dance” strategy is faltering across Europe. Every province in Canada, except for Atlantic Canada, is in difficulty.

As we consider difficult policy choices over the next few months, we must consider alternatives to the increasingly questionable “hammer and dance” strategy. There should be a rigorous cost-benefit analysis and debate around a zero transmission strategy for Canada.


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More from @yaneerbaryam

14 Nov
It is manifest that retailers in many parts of the world, owners of airlines, restaurants, bars, shops, are pressing governments to open up the economy even though it will cause disease, death and disability.

They are short sighted in their advocacy, after all we see the benefits of strong action in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia in stopping the outbreak and opening normally.

The economic recovery depends on eliminating the virus. Opening partway then closing, opening and closing will bankrupt business. Business owners are misled in thinking opening with the virus will benefit them. Entire branches of the economy are being destroyed.

Read 14 tweets
14 Nov
US sets a record for the 7th time in the past 10 days, 153,496, doubling the July peak. 41 states are averaging more than 1k cases/day. Testing positive rate continues to climb, now over 10% nationally, and much higher for hotspots. ImageImage
UK reported a new high of 33,517 cases yesterday, a 25% increase from their previous daily record. Daily death tolls have also climbed continuously, now at 375, 40% of first wave’s peak. Image
Estonia reports a new high of 373, as new restrictions are introduced, including mandatory masks in public. Image
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
Italy’s total confirmed cases surpassed 10M, as the recent rate of change is far faster than seen before.

Much of Europe is also seeing record highs.
US saw a new high of 136,325 cases yesterday. IL, OH, MT, and WY see new highs. 1,415 deaths reported yesterday, highest since mid-August.

Canada’s daily average keeps rising, now at 4.5k. Ontario remains the current epicenter.
Algeria sees rapid surge recently, yesterday with a new high of 752, surpassing its peak during the last wave.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy

With green zone exit strategy we are there!
Osterholm said such a lockdown would help the country bring the virus under control, “like they did in New Zealand and Australia.”

"Epidemiologists have repeatedly pointed to New Zealand, Australia and other parts of Asia that have brought the number of daily new cases to under 10 as an example of how to contain the virus."

(now to zero!!)

Read 6 tweets
11 Nov
US reported 111,433 cases yesterday, with 13 states reporting new highs. Total confirmed cases surpassed 10M. It only took 10 days for the latest million, much faster than any previous marks. Image
Mexico’s cases have been level for some time, but due to low testing (confirmed by very high positivity rates), the general severity in confirmed cases didn't alleviate as many other countries, resulting in one of the highest case fatality rates worldwide. Image
While Europe is still suffering from the recent wave, the first two European countries to re-enter national lockdown have reported significant declines. Ireland drops to about 1/3 of their peak three weeks ago. Czechia, which entered national lockdown on Oct.22, drops rapidly. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
US reported 91,530 cases yesterday, the second highest day for the country, along with 1,130 deaths, highest since mid-Sept. OH, PA, MN, NM, and ME see new highs.
Canada sees a new high of 4,738 as 7-day average also sets a new record. 72 new deaths were reported, second highest since early June. Ontario overtook the leveling Quebec to become the current epicenter.
Europe reported 242k cases yesterday as 13 countries reported new highs. Italy reports 28,241. Lombardia, Calabria, Piedmont and Valle d'Aosta are labelled red zones in Italy’s new color-coded zoning system.
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