When Trump was first elected, it was a bit eerie how precisely I could map out his behaviors in advance.

Folks who have followed me for a long time can probably attest to that.

A lot of people who have seen a narcissist up close could do the same. They’re just predictable.

They are so programmed, they’re incapable of surprise.

They are hardwired to make all decisions based on two driving motivations.

What best helps them:

- avoid being seen as shameful, contemptible, unworthy of respect

- earn admiration, esteem; be seen as special

Those twin drivers make all their decisions simple calculations. They can’t weigh complexity or trade offs.

They can’t long-term plan... because even if they did, they’d still compulsively for the thing best for those two needs right now.

So, anyway, back to Trump and his behavior right now and what’s likely coming next...

He went through the first four phases of his predictable cycle when a public humiliation is coming:

1) Frantic attempt to head it off - a la his fevered campaigning in Sept/Oct

2) Going Loco Lawn Sprinkler - when the first phase fails, spraying unhinged lunacy in every direction - a la his insane ranting the final week of the campaign

Then, when the humiliation arrives:

3) Cocooning - Hiding from sight like a dog under a sofa after being chastised

4) Scapegoating - Blaming other people for the failure (so far: Fox News).

The irony of #4 is that the blame is often directed at people closest who have done EVERYTHING for the narcissist. They still “didn’t do enough”.

And then the last phase is:

5) Face-saving - the narc throws a bunch of potential face-saving excuses out there for how [the humiliating thing] didn’t happen, isn’t their fault or isn’t actually bad at all.

We’re there now. Cocooning—> scapegoating—> face-saving.

To narcissists, life is a constant focus group. They’re perpetually message-testing. They throw things out there, see what best serves their two driving impulses and run with it.

So, Trump has been testing face-saving vectors. Rigged election, allies didn’t do enough, etc.

And now he is on to testing out “I’ll win in 2024” and “I’m going to take on Fox News and build a better media company.”

Both work in their own way but neither quite does the trick on its own.

Beating Fox News still leaves you a one-term loser.

And running in 2024 still leaves you as a guy who just got punted from his important job without another one to go to.

His crowd will be receptive enough to each of them that they’ll make a nice face-saving combo in his mind.

So, expect that we are now about to see a shift towards those two tracks.

Up next:

- stepping away from the “overturn the election” stuff. That didn’t work (and runs afoul of a narcissist’s inability to stay “in the shame” of the situation that hurt them in the first place)

- Heavying up his talk about building a better network / being “bigger” than Fox News. It won’t even be tangibly baked as a plan. It’ll just be non-binding rhetoric about doing big things bigly

- Announcing an alleged 2024 run

With those two in place, there really isn’t much of a reason for Trump to hang out in the White House.

He can toddle off to Mar a Lago and lame duck from the golf course while doing prime time interviews with a tanned Sean Hannity fawning over how great he seems to be doing.
So, we’re at about the end of posturing over a full-court press to overturn the results.

Instead we’ll be in for a tedious and dumb one-two of Trump trying to “take on Fox News” while saying he’s starting a 2024 run.

This is all an impermanent sideshow, so nothing more to do than crack open a beverage, fill your popcorn bowl and watch.

It’s “face-saving” time. That’s a pretty benign end-phase before the cycle begins anew.

So, take some deep breaths and enjoy the relative peace there.

Plus, the shitstorm of Trump picking a fight with Rupert Murdoch promises to be a little amusing possibly.

We’re largely through Phases 1-4. Here comes Phase 5.

And more importantly, here comes President Biden.

That’s the one that matters.

One p.s.:

Fox News could very easily reverse the situation by blowing smoke up Trump’s ass about needing to “team up”.

He’d just shift to saying he was “taking on corrupt mainstream media”.

He doesn’t care what the excuse is. He just needs one.

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More from @TheRealHoarse

14 Nov
So, somehow, I am now the father of a teenager.

The little boy who would wake up early, climb out of bed and pitter-patter across the hardwood to climb under the covers with me... he’s a teenager now.

1/ Image
The 5 lb 13 ounce peanut who arrived five weeks early and almost didn’t survive his first night...

The tiny little one who I would sing to sleep on my shoulder...

A teenager.

When kids are little, people say “Don’t worry, it gets better.”

I never needed it to get better.

I loved when he was just a tiny bundle swaddled and asleep in my lap as I stayed up all night watching movies as his mom slept.

I loved the 2s, 3s and 4s. I have loved it all.

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13 Nov
America’s Biggest Loser, the defeated Donald J. Trump, speaking live at the White House.

Turned it on to hear him lying about how he is somehow responsible for development of a vaccine not in any way aided by his administration.
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His face, as always, looks like a pumpkin pie with two pieces of uncooked bologna for eyes.
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Sure, it’s an expensive placebo but, hey, we’ve got truckloads.

This fuckopotamus is truly a snake oil salesman.
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
My understanding is that Trump basically “lent” money to his Scottish golf courses for “improvements” and then upped the claimed value of the courses to offset the debt without making any readily apparent significant improvements.

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And if there was a loan, was that money spent on improvements or laundered back to Trump somehow.

There is something very amiss in the numbers though.

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Yet, Trump has made no moves to plug what appear to be gaping losses.

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13 Nov
The best thing us deep-blue-staters can do to help the Georgia runoffs is give them all the money and none of the advice.

Stacey Abrams, et al, know what they’re doing.
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An uncoordinated hurricane of out-of-state messages would hurt rather than help.
Links to donate or make calls for Jon Ossoff.
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11 Nov
Someone I used to be good friends with moved out to a red state about ten years ago.

He was my creative partner in a small ad agency. A laid-back, funny, fun guy in a liberal, creative industry.

Just about the LAST guy I’d ever imagine becoming a Trumper.

After he moved, he apparently jumped into the Fox News pool with both feet.

Yesterday, he posted the most unhinged rant about how it is actually Republicans who have been wronged by Democrats for years and years.

It was so irrational, it bordered on psychosis.

It was a thousand-word rant about how Repubs had been victimized by Dems.

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10 Nov
People pushing for unity and outreach need to immediately cease.

I’ve read a slew of messages from people on the right and they aren’t taking that as an interest in peace.

They’re taking it as a confession of prior wrongdoing.

They are taking it to mean Dems know they have no actual reason to hold a burning grudge or animus - WHILE THEY DO.

Stop. Fucking. Doing. That.

No, we absolutely don’t need to lead with hugs and olive branches.

Republicans stole the Supreme Court; looted the Treasury; corrupted the entirety of our federal government; and tried their very best to steal another four years.

We should be holding truth and reconciliation hearings.

Do not offer unity on our behalf. It is not yours to offer.
Read 5 tweets

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