Thread by @TheRealHoarse

When Trump was first elected, it was a bit eerie how precisely I could map out his behaviors in advance.

Folks who have followed me for a long time can probably attest to that.

A lot of people who have seen a narcissist up close could do the same. They’re just predictable.

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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1327246056371974145

They are so programmed, they’re incapable of surprise.

They are hardwired to make all decisions based on two driving motivations.

What best helps them:

- avoid being seen as shameful, contemptible, unworthy of respect

- earn admiration, esteem; be seen as special

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Those twin drivers make all their decisions simple calculations. They can’t weigh complexity or trade offs.

They can’t long-term plan... because even if they did, they’d still compulsively for the thing best for those two needs right now.

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So, anyway, back to Trump and his behavior right now and what’s likely coming next...

He went through the first four phases of his predictable cycle when a public humiliation is coming:

1) Frantic attempt to head it off - a la his fevered campaigning in Sept/Oct

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2) Going Loco Lawn Sprinkler - when the first phase fails, spraying unhinged lunacy in every direction - a la his insane ranting the final week of the campaign

Then, when the humiliation arrives:

3) Cocooning - Hiding from sight like a dog under a sofa after being chastised

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4) Scapegoating - Blaming other people for the failure (so far: Fox News).

The irony of #4 is that the blame is often directed at people closest who have done EVERYTHING for the narcissist. They still “didn’t do enough”.

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And then the last phase is:

5) Face-saving - the narc throws a bunch of potential face-saving excuses out there for how [the humiliating thing] didn’t happen, isn’t their fault or isn’t actually bad at all.

We’re there now. Cocooning—> scapegoating—> face-saving.

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To narcissists, life is a constant focus group. They’re perpetually message-testing. They throw things out there, see what best serves their two driving impulses and run with it.

So, Trump has been testing face-saving vectors. Rigged election, allies didn’t do enough, etc.

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And now he is on to testing out “I’ll win in 2024” and “I’m going to take on Fox News and build a better media company.”

Both work in their own way but neither quite does the trick on its own.

Beating Fox News still leaves you a one-term loser.

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And running in 2024 still leaves you as a guy who just got punted from his important job without another one to go to.

His crowd will be receptive enough to each of them that they’ll make a nice face-saving combo in his mind.

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So, expect that we are now about to see a shift towards those two tracks.

Up next:

- stepping away from the “overturn the election” stuff. That didn’t work (and runs afoul of a narcissist’s inability to stay “in the shame” of the situation that hurt them in the first place)

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- Heavying up his talk about building a better network / being “bigger” than Fox News. It won’t even be tangibly baked as a plan. It’ll just be non-binding rhetoric about doing big things bigly

- Announcing an alleged 2024 run

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With those two in place, there really isn’t much of a reason for Trump to hang out in the White House.

He can toddle off to Mar a Lago and lame duck from the golf course while doing prime time interviews with a tanned Sean Hannity fawning over how great he seems to be doing.
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So, we’re at about the end of posturing over a full-court press to overturn the results.

Instead we’ll be in for a tedious and dumb one-two of Trump trying to “take on Fox News” while saying he’s starting a 2024 run.

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This is all an impermanent sideshow, so nothing more to do than crack open a beverage, fill your popcorn bowl and watch.

It’s “face-saving” time. That’s a pretty benign end-phase before the cycle begins anew.

So, take some deep breaths and enjoy the relative peace there.

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Plus, the shitstorm of Trump picking a fight with Rupert Murdoch promises to be a little amusing possibly.

We’re largely through Phases 1-4. Here comes Phase 5.

And more importantly, here comes President Biden.

That’s the one that matters.

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One p.s.:

Fox News could very easily reverse the situation by blowing smoke up Trump’s ass about needing to “team up”.

He’d just shift to saying he was “taking on corrupt mainstream media”.

He doesn’t care what the excuse is. He just needs one.